About this project

This site tracks the gap between results and underlying performance at the 2026 FIFA World Cup — who is lucky, who is unlucky, and who deserves more than the scoreboard shows.

What it measures

Every team is placed on a luck quadrant comparing expected goals (xG) to actual goals, and the group standings are shown alongside expected points (xPts) so you can see at a glance which sides are over- or under-performing.

Where the data comes from

Goals, results and the official group tables come from public match data. Expected goals (xG) are taken from public match pages, and expected points are computed here with a Poisson model — see the methodology for the full calculation.

How often it updates

The numbers refresh during the tournament as matches finish, so the over/under-performance picture stays current through the group stage and knockouts.

Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by FIFA. “World Cup” and team names are used descriptively to refer to the 2026 tournament.