The unluckiest group-stage teams of the 2026 World Cup
Group stage complete: 72 group matches played, 48 of 48 teams with group results.
This World Cup 2026 xG luck dashboard ranks the group-stage teams that deserved more from their chances. Uruguay are the unluckiest group-stage team — 2 points from 5.05 expected points (Δ -3.05). On the balance of chances created and conceded, they deserved more than the scoreboard gave them.
Quick answers
- Who is the unluckiest group-stage team at the World Cup 2026 by xG?
- Uruguay are the unluckiest group-stage team by points versus xPts: 2 points from 5.05 xPts, a gap of -3.05.
- What does unluckiest by xPts mean?
- Unluckiest by xPts means a team has taken fewer actual group-stage points than its expected-points total from the chance quality in its group matches.
- Is this the same as the official World Cup standings?
- No. Official standings decide qualification. This table adds xG context by comparing actual points with expected points.
| # | Team | Grp | Pts | xPts | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uruguay | H | 2 | 5.05 | -3.05 |
| 2 | Turkiye | D | 3 | 5.94 | -2.94 |
| 3 | Panama | L | 0 | 2.27 | -2.27 |
| 4 | Canada | B | 4 | 6.24 | -2.24 |
| 5 | South Korea | A | 3 | 5.09 | -2.09 |
| 6 | Haiti | C | 0 | 2.01 | -2.01 |
| 7 | Belgium | G | 5 | 6.63 | -1.63 |
| 8 | Jordan | J | 0 | 1.62 | -1.62 |
| 9 | Ecuador | E | 4 | 5.51 | -1.51 |
| 10 | Senegal | I | 3 | 4.50 | -1.50 |
| 11 | Uzbekistan | K | 0 | 1.45 | -1.45 |
| 12 | Iran | G | 3 | 4.27 | -1.27 |
| 13 | New Zealand | G | 1 | 2.25 | -1.25 |
| 14 | Tunisia | F | 0 | 1.22 | -1.22 |
| 15 | Czechia | A | 1 | 2.18 | -1.18 |
| 16 | DR Congo | K | 4 | 4.93 | -0.93 |
| 17 | Iraq | I | 0 | 0.86 | -0.86 |
| 18 | Japan | F | 5 | 5.67 | -0.67 |
| 19 | Qatar | B | 1 | 1.63 | -0.63 |
| 20 | Algeria | J | 4 | 4.31 | -0.31 |
| 21 | Spain | H | 7 | 7.28 | -0.28 |
| 22 | Curacao | E | 1 | 1.01 | -0.01 |
| 23 | England | L | 7 | 7.01 | -0.01 |