How lucky or unlucky were Japan in the World Cup 2026 group stage?

Group-stage totals: 5 points from 5.67 xPts (points luck -0.67) and 3 goals conceded from 1.47 xGA (defensive luck -1.53). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Japan's group-stage luck built game by game.

Where did Japan finish in Group F?

Japan finished second in Group F with 5 points from 5.67 group-stage xPts (Δ -0.67).

What are Japan's group, knockout and total xG numbers?

Japan have 3.93 group-stage xGF and 1.47 group-stage xGA, plus 0.33 knockout xGF and 2.07 knockout xGA. Total: 4.26 xGF, 3.54 xGA.

What was Japan's best xG match?

Japan's highest-xGF match was 4–0 vs Tunisia: 2.13 xG for and 0.05 xG against.

Japan at the 2026 World Cup

Eliminated

Japan are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 76 against Brazil. Brazil 2–1 Japan; Brazil 2.07–0.33 Japan xG.

Japan have 7 goals from 3.93 xG, a clear clinical-finishing group-stage read.

Next for Japan

Knockout result

Japan vs Brazil

Match 76 (Round of 32) result page with score, match xG and advancement context.

Latest xG match

1–2 vs Brazil

Knockout stage · xG 0.33-2.07 · eliminated

Group table

Group F finish

5 points from 5.67 group-stage xPts. Official group rank decides qualification.

Results

All scores with xG

Every finished match, scoreline, match xG and one-line verdict.

Quick answers

EliminatedAre Japan eliminated from the World Cup 2026?: Japan are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 76 against Brazil. Brazil 2–1 Japan; Brazil 2.07–0.33 Japan xG.
Clinical finishingHow lucky or unlucky were Japan in the World Cup 2026 group stage?: Group-stage totals: 5 points from 5.67 xPts (points luck -0.67) and 3 goals conceded from 1.47 xGA (defensive luck -1.53). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Japan's group-stage luck built game by game.
Group finishWhere did Japan finish in Group F?: Japan finished second in Group F with 5 points from 5.67 group-stage xPts (Δ -0.67).
xG by stageWhat are Japan's group, knockout and total xG numbers?: Japan have 3.93 group-stage xGF and 1.47 group-stage xGA, plus 0.33 knockout xGF and 2.07 knockout xGA. Total: 4.26 xGF, 3.54 xGA.
Best xG matchWhat was Japan's best xG match?: Japan's highest-xGF match was 4–0 vs Tunisia: 2.13 xG for and 0.05 xG against.

xG by stage

Stage	Matches	Goals	xGF / xGA	xGD	xPts	Scope
Group stage	3	7–3	3.93 / 1.47	+2.46	5.66	Official group-table scope
Knockout	1	1–2	0.33 / 2.07	-1.74	0.31	Match xPts is chance context only
Total	4	8–5	4.26 / 3.54	+0.72	5.97	All completed xG-backed matches

Knockout status

EliminatedAre Japan eliminated from the World Cup 2026?: Japan are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 76 against Brazil. Brazil 2–1 Japan; Brazil 2.07–0.33 Japan xG. Japan vs Brazil xG guide/result.

Knockout receipts

1-2 vs BrazilKnockout stage · xG 0.33-2.07 · match xPts 0.31 · eliminated

Group-stage match receipts

2-2 vs NetherlandsxG 0.59-0.78 · xPts 1.13 · Δ -0.13
4-0 vs TunisiaxG 2.13-0.05 · xPts 2.73 · Δ +0.27
1-1 vs SwedenxG 1.21-0.64 · xPts 1.80 · Δ -0.80

Schedule context

Japan are +2.46 xGD through 3 xG matches against opponents averaging 25.7/48 in the World Cup field and FIFA #34.3 globally; led xG against a mid-ranked opponent field.

Group	Group F · 2nd in group
Knockout status	Eliminated Out after Match 76 vs Brazil
Published FIFA rank	FIFA #17 · 16th of 48 World Cup teams
xG vs schedule	Avg opponent field rank 25.7 / 48 · Avg opponent FIFA #34.3 · led xG against a mid-ranked opponent field
Group-stage played / record	3 · 1W 2D 0L
Group-stage points	5
Group-stage expected points (xPts)	5.67
Group-stage Δ (Points − xPts)	-0.67
Group-stage goals for / against	7 / 3
Group-stage xG for / against	3.93 / 1.47
Group-stage finishing (Goals − xG)	+3.07
Group-stage defensive luck (xGA − GA)	-1.53

Where Japan sit on the total xG luck quadrant

Where Japan sit across all xG-backed matches so far — finishing luck (goals − xG) across, defensive luck (xGA − goals conceded) up; the crosshair is zero, exactly as the chances suggest. On the balance of play they are clinical but leaky.

See Japan on the full interactive luck quadrant →

Best and worst group-stage xG matches

Best xG performance

Japan 4–0 Tunisia

Japan had their strongest chance profile against Tunisia, winning the xG battle 2.13–0.05.

Most unlucky result

Japan vs Sweden

Japan took 1 point from 1.80 xPts (Δ -0.80).

Group-stage match by match

Group-stage match-by-match luck — points taken minus expected points (xPts) each game. Green = took more than the chances deserved, red = deserved more.

Date	Match	Score	Group xG	xPts	Δ
14 June	@ Netherlands	2–2	0.59–0.78	1.13	-0.13
20 June	@ Tunisia	4–0	2.13–0.05	2.73	+0.27
25 June	v Sweden	1–1	1.21–0.64	1.80	-0.80

Δ here is per group-stage match: the points Japan took that game minus their expected points (xPts) for it. Negative = robbed, positive = fortunate.

Knockout match by match

Date	Match	Score	Knockout xG	Match xPts	Verdict
29 June	@ Brazil	1–2	0.33–2.07	0.31	Brazil advanced with an xG edge (2.07–0.33 xG), winning 2–1.

Knockout rows are not added to group points or group-stage xPts. The score decides advancement; match xPts is chance-profile context.

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