xG 1.27 – 0.65 · xPts 1.84 – 0.87 · Group E
Ecuador edged a balanced game 2–1 (1.27–0.65 xG).
World Cup 2026 xG recap: 25 June
Latest available post-match xG · updated 2 July 2026, 02:56 ET · 6 matches, 16 goals, 14.02 total xG. Not live.
6 matches on 25 June, read through expected goals — the day's robberies, smash-and-grabs and standout performances below.
xG stories of the day
Game of the day
Turkiye 3–2 USA was the day's most open contest by xG — 3.05–2.13, both ends busy. xG breakdown →
Every 25 June match
xG 0.50 – 1.31 · xPts 0.71 – 2.00 · Group E
Ivory Coast backed up their xG edge (1.31–0.50 xG), winning 0–2.
xG 0.62 – 1.85 · xPts 0.57 – 2.22 · Group F
Netherlands backed up their xG edge (1.85–0.62 xG), winning 1–3.
xG 1.21 – 0.64 · xPts 1.80 – 0.89 · Group F
An even contest (1.21–0.64 xG) finished 1–1.
xG 3.05 – 2.13 · xPts 1.88 – 0.96 · Group D
Turkiye backed up their xG edge (3.05–2.13 xG), winning 3–2.
xG 0.24 – 0.55 · xPts 0.91 – 1.58 · Group D
An even contest (0.24–0.55 xG) finished 0–0.
More: all daily recaps · all results · standings & expected points · unluckiest teams · the xG visualizer
Luck is measured per match: actual points minus expected points (xPts), an independent Poisson model on public post-match xG. Figures may differ from other public xG sources. Directional, not official — especially early in the tournament.