14/16
88% of completed knockout results had the winner or advancing team lead xG by at least 0.30.
World Cup 2026 knockout xG verdicts
Latest available post-match xG · updated 4 July 2026, 00:13 ET. Actual advancement first; xG verdict second.
Every completed knockout match is classified by whether the winner or advancing team also had the stronger expected-goals profile. This is the knockout-stage replacement for the group-stage luck tables: actual bracket result first, xG context underneath.
Quick answers
- Did the better xG team advance in the World Cup 2026 knockouts?
- 14 of 16 completed knockout matches had the winner or advancing team also lead xG by at least 0.30. 2 went against the xG profile and 0 were near-even by xG.
- Which team still alive has the best total xG difference?
- Spain have the best total xG difference among teams still alive: +7.20 xGD from 8.06 xGF and 0.86 xGA.
- What is the biggest knockout result against the xG profile?
- Belgium advanced against the xG profile versus Senegal; Senegal led xG 3.58-1.74.
- Did the best xG team win the World Cup 2026?
- The World Cup 2026 final has not been added with post-match xG yet. This page will become the final xG retrospective once Match 104 is complete and xG is published.
Knockout pattern
2
Winners or advancing teams who were out-created by at least 0.30 xG in the match.
0
Matches where the final xG edge was inside 0.30, so the xG verdict is treated as narrow rather than a robbery.
Match 88: Egypt vs Australia
Egypt advanced with the stronger xG profile (1.32-0.84).
Australia 1–1 (2–4 pens) Egypt · xG Australia 0.84 · Egypt 1.32
Completed knockout matches
| Match | Result | Round | Verdict | xG edge | Match xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | Canada over South Africa South Africa 0–1 Canada · xG South Africa 0.14 · Canada 1.38 | Round of 32 | Winner had xG edge | +1.24 | Canada 2.37 · South Africa 0.37 |
| 74 | Paraguay over Germany Germany 1–1 (3–4 pens) Paraguay · xG Germany 1.57 · Paraguay 0.35 | Round of 32 | Winner went against xG | -1.22 | Paraguay 0.48 · Germany 2.29 |
| 75 | Morocco over Netherlands Netherlands 1–1 (2–3 pens) Morocco · xG Netherlands 0.24 · Morocco 1.38 | Round of 32 | Winner had xG edge | +1.14 | Morocco 2.27 · Netherlands 0.46 |
| 76 | Brazil over Japan Brazil 2–1 Japan · xG Brazil 2.07 · Japan 0.33 | Round of 32 | Winner had xG edge | +1.74 | Brazil 2.53 · Japan 0.31 |
| 77 | France over Sweden France 3–0 Sweden · xG France 3.24 · Sweden 0.70 | Round of 32 | Winner had xG edge | +2.54 | France 2.66 · Sweden 0.24 |
| 78 | Norway over Ivory Coast Ivory Coast 1–2 Norway · xG Ivory Coast 1.49 · Norway 1.90 | Round of 32 | Winner had xG edge | +0.41 | Norway 1.64 · Ivory Coast 1.13 |
| 79 | Mexico over Ecuador Mexico 2–0 Ecuador · xG Mexico 1.05 · Ecuador 0.75 | Round of 32 | Winner had xG edge | +0.30 | Mexico 1.58 · Ecuador 1.09 |
| 80 | England over DR Congo England 2–1 DR Congo · xG England 2.16 · DR Congo 0.77 | Round of 32 | Winner had xG edge | +1.39 | England 2.27 · DR Congo 0.55 |
| 81 | USA over Bosnia and Herzegovina USA 2–0 Bosnia and Herzegovina · xG USA 0.88 · Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.25 | Round of 32 | Winner had xG edge | +0.63 | USA 1.90 · Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.70 |
| 82 | Belgium over Senegal Belgium 3–2 Senegal · xG Belgium 1.74 · Senegal 3.58 | Round of 32 | Winner went against xG | -1.84 | Belgium 0.58 · Senegal 2.29 |
| 83 | Portugal over Croatia Portugal 2–1 Croatia · xG Portugal 2.20 · Croatia 1.34 | Round of 32 | Winner had xG edge | +0.86 | Portugal 1.91 · Croatia 0.89 |
| 84 | Spain over Austria Spain 3–0 Austria · xG Spain 2.80 · Austria 0.32 | Round of 32 | Winner had xG edge | +2.48 | Spain 2.74 · Austria 0.17 |
| 85 | Switzerland over Algeria Switzerland 2–0 Algeria · xG Switzerland 2.45 · Algeria 0.74 | Round of 32 | Winner had xG edge | +1.71 | Switzerland 2.41 · Algeria 0.44 |
| 86 | Argentina over Cape Verde Argentina 3–2 Cape Verde · xG Argentina 2.26 · Cape Verde 0.47 | Round of 32 | Winner had xG edge | +1.79 | Argentina 2.50 · Cape Verde 0.34 |
| 87 | Colombia over Ghana Colombia 1–0 Ghana · xG Colombia 2.19 · Ghana 0.26 | Round of 32 | Winner had xG edge | +1.93 | Colombia 2.61 · Ghana 0.24 |
| 88 | Egypt over Australia Australia 1–1 (2–4 pens) Egypt · xG Australia 0.84 · Egypt 1.32 | Round of 32 | Winner had xG edge | +0.48 | Egypt 1.72 · Australia 1.00 |
Still alive by total xG difference
| # | Team | Matches | xGF | xGA | xGD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 4 | 8.06 | 0.86 | +7.20 |
| 2 | Brazil | 4 | 9.41 | 2.97 | +6.44 |
| 3 | Canada | 4 | 8.87 | 2.43 | +6.44 |
| 4 | England | 4 | 8.28 | 2.30 | +5.98 |
| 5 | Argentina | 4 | 8.01 | 2.08 | +5.93 |
| 6 | France | 4 | 9.20 | 3.56 | +5.64 |
| 7 | Switzerland | 4 | 8.82 | 3.23 | +5.59 |
| 8 | Morocco | 4 | 7.50 | 3.23 | +4.27 |
| 9 | Colombia | 4 | 6.48 | 2.72 | +3.76 |
| 10 | Belgium | 4 | 8.52 | 5.52 | +3.00 |
| 11 | Norway | 4 | 8.32 | 5.51 | +2.81 |
| 12 | Mexico | 4 | 4.78 | 2.26 | +2.52 |
| 13 | Portugal | 4 | 6.39 | 4.15 | +2.24 |
| 14 | USA | 4 | 5.51 | 4.19 | +1.32 |
| 15 | Egypt | 4 | 5.11 | 5.40 | -0.29 |
| 16 | Paraguay | 4 | 1.45 | 5.71 | -4.26 |
Total xG includes group-stage and completed knockout xG-backed matches. It does not change the bracket; the score decides advancement.
More context: World Cup 2026 bracket · results and xG · xG stat leaders · biggest xG robberies.