25/32
78% of completed knockout results had the winner or advancing team lead xG by at least 0.30.
World Cup 2026 knockout xG verdicts
Latest available post-match xG · updated 18 August 2026, 13:37 ET. Actual advancement first; xG verdict second.
Every completed knockout match is classified by whether the winner or advancing team also had the stronger expected-goals profile. This is the knockout-stage replacement for the group-stage luck tables: actual bracket result first, xG context underneath.
Quick answers
- Did the better xG team advance in the World Cup 2026 knockouts?
- 25 of 32 completed knockout matches had the winner or advancing team also lead xG by at least 0.30. 4 went against the xG profile and 3 were near-even by xG.
- Which team still alive has the best total xG difference?
- Spain have the best total xG difference among teams still alive: +13.27 xGD from 15.63 xGF and 2.36 xGA.
- What is the biggest knockout result against the xG profile?
- Belgium advanced against the xG profile versus Senegal; Senegal led xG 3.58-1.74.
- Did the best xG team win the World Cup 2026?
- Spain won the final. Spain also finished with the best total xG difference in the tournament: +13.27 xGD from 15.63 xGF and 2.36 xGA.
Knockout pattern
4
Winners or advancing teams who were out-created by at least 0.30 xG in the match.
3
Matches where the final xG edge was inside 0.30, so the xG verdict is treated as narrow rather than a robbery.
Match 104: Spain vs Argentina
Spain won the final with the stronger xG profile (2.29-0.22).
Completed knockout matches
| Match | Result | Round | Verdict | xG edge | Match xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | Canada over South Africa South Africa 0–1 Canada · xG South Africa 0.14 · Canada 1.38 | Round of 32 | Winner had xG edge | +1.24 | Canada 2.37 · South Africa 0.37 |
| 74 | Paraguay over Germany Germany 1–1 (3–4 pens) Paraguay · xG Germany 1.57 · Paraguay 0.35 | Round of 32 | Winner went against xG | -1.22 | Paraguay 0.48 · Germany 2.29 |
| 75 | Morocco over Netherlands Netherlands 1–1 (2–3 pens) Morocco · xG Netherlands 0.24 · Morocco 1.38 | Round of 32 | Winner had xG edge | +1.14 | Morocco 2.27 · Netherlands 0.46 |
| 76 | Brazil over Japan Brazil 2–1 Japan · xG Brazil 2.07 · Japan 0.33 | Round of 32 | Winner had xG edge | +1.74 | Brazil 2.53 · Japan 0.31 |
| 77 | France over Sweden France 3–0 Sweden · xG France 3.24 · Sweden 0.70 | Round of 32 | Winner had xG edge | +2.54 | France 2.66 · Sweden 0.24 |
| 78 | Norway over Ivory Coast Ivory Coast 1–2 Norway · xG Ivory Coast 1.49 · Norway 1.90 | Round of 32 | Winner had xG edge | +0.41 | Norway 1.64 · Ivory Coast 1.13 |
| 79 | Mexico over Ecuador Mexico 2–0 Ecuador · xG Mexico 1.05 · Ecuador 0.75 | Round of 32 | Winner had xG edge | +0.30 | Mexico 1.58 · Ecuador 1.09 |
| 80 | England over DR Congo England 2–1 DR Congo · xG England 2.16 · DR Congo 0.77 | Round of 32 | Winner had xG edge | +1.39 | England 2.27 · DR Congo 0.55 |
| 81 | USA over Bosnia and Herzegovina USA 2–0 Bosnia and Herzegovina · xG USA 0.88 · Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.25 | Round of 32 | Winner had xG edge | +0.63 | USA 1.90 · Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.70 |
| 82 | Belgium over Senegal Belgium 3–2 Senegal · xG Belgium 1.74 · Senegal 3.58 | Round of 32 | Winner went against xG | -1.84 | Belgium 0.58 · Senegal 2.29 |
| 83 | Portugal over Croatia Portugal 2–1 Croatia · xG Portugal 2.20 · Croatia 1.34 | Round of 32 | Winner had xG edge | +0.86 | Portugal 1.91 · Croatia 0.89 |
| 84 | Spain over Austria Spain 3–0 Austria · xG Spain 2.80 · Austria 0.32 | Round of 32 | Winner had xG edge | +2.48 | Spain 2.74 · Austria 0.17 |
| 85 | Switzerland over Algeria Switzerland 2–0 Algeria · xG Switzerland 2.45 · Algeria 0.74 | Round of 32 | Winner had xG edge | +1.71 | Switzerland 2.41 · Algeria 0.44 |
| 86 | Argentina over Cape Verde Argentina 3–2 Cape Verde · xG Argentina 2.26 · Cape Verde 0.47 | Round of 32 | Winner had xG edge | +1.79 | Argentina 2.50 · Cape Verde 0.34 |
| 87 | Colombia over Ghana Colombia 1–0 Ghana · xG Colombia 2.04 · Ghana 0.27 | Round of 32 | Winner had xG edge | +1.77 | Colombia 2.56 · Ghana 0.28 |
| 88 | Egypt over Australia Australia 1–1 (2–4 pens) Egypt · xG Australia 0.84 · Egypt 1.32 | Round of 32 | Winner had xG edge | +0.48 | Egypt 1.72 · Australia 1.00 |
| 89 | Morocco over Canada Canada 0–3 Morocco · xG Canada 0.84 · Morocco 0.82 | Round of 16 | Near-even xG | -0.02 | Morocco 1.31 · Canada 1.34 |
| 90 | France over Paraguay Paraguay 0–1 France · xG Paraguay 0.13 · France 1.45 | Round of 16 | Winner had xG edge | +1.32 | France 2.41 · Paraguay 0.34 |
| 91 | Norway over Brazil Brazil 1–2 Norway · xG Brazil 2.61 · Norway 1.05 | Round of 16 | Winner went against xG | -1.56 | Norway 0.55 · Brazil 2.29 |
| 92 | England over Mexico Mexico 2–3 England · xG Mexico 1.88 · England 1.61 | Round of 16 | Near-even xG | -0.27 | England 1.22 · Mexico 1.56 |
| 93 | Spain over Portugal Portugal 0–1 Spain · xG Portugal 0.63 · Spain 1.69 | Round of 16 | Winner had xG edge | +1.06 | Spain 2.13 · Portugal 0.64 |
| 94 | Belgium over USA USA 1–4 Belgium · xG USA 0.63 · Belgium 2.01 | Round of 16 | Winner had xG edge | +1.38 | Belgium 2.29 · USA 0.51 |
| 95 | Argentina over Egypt Argentina 3–2 Egypt · xG Argentina 2.84 · Egypt 0.89 | Round of 16 | Winner had xG edge | +1.95 | Argentina 2.46 · Egypt 0.40 |
| 96 | Switzerland over Colombia Switzerland 0–0 (4–3 pens) Colombia · xG Switzerland 0.39 · Colombia 1.09 | Round of 16 | Winner went against xG | -0.70 | Switzerland 0.73 · Colombia 1.93 |
| 97 | France over Morocco Morocco 0–2 France · xG Morocco 0.14 · France 3.69 | Quarter-final | Winner had xG edge | +3.55 | France 2.91 · Morocco 0.05 |
| 98 | Spain over Belgium Spain 2–1 Belgium · xG Spain 1.96 · Belgium 0.34 | Quarter-final | Winner had xG edge | +1.62 | Spain 2.48 · Belgium 0.34 |
| 99 | England over Norway Norway 1–2 England · xG Norway 0.68 · England 1.04 | Quarter-final | Winner had xG edge | +0.36 | England 1.63 · Norway 1.04 |
| 100 | Argentina over Switzerland Argentina 3–1 Switzerland · xG Argentina 1.94 · Switzerland 0.47 | Quarter-final | Winner had xG edge | +1.47 | Argentina 2.37 · Switzerland 0.43 |
| 101 | Spain over France France 0–2 Spain · xG France 0.31 · Spain 1.63 | Semi-final | Winner had xG edge | +1.32 | Spain 2.35 · France 0.42 |
| 102 | Argentina over England England 1–2 Argentina · xG England 0.53 · Argentina 1.59 | Semi-final | Winner had xG edge | +1.06 | Argentina 2.15 · England 0.61 |
| 103 | England over France France 4–6 England · xG France 2.88 · England 2.88 | Third-place match | Near-even xG | 0.00 | England 1.41 · France 1.41 |
| 104 | Spain over Argentina Spain 1–0 Argentina · xG Spain 2.29 · Argentina 0.22 | Final | Winner had xG edge | +2.07 | Spain 2.67 · Argentina 0.20 |
Final tournament xG table
| # | Team | Matches | xGF | xGA | xGD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 8 | 15.63 | 2.36 | +13.27 |
| 2 | France | 8 | 17.53 | 8.34 | +9.19 |
| 3 | Argentina | 8 | 14.60 | 6.26 | +8.34 |
| 4 | Brazil | 5 | 12.02 | 4.02 | +8.00 |
| 5 | Canada | 5 | 9.71 | 3.25 | +6.46 |
| 6 | Germany | 4 | 8.33 | 3.25 | +5.08 |
| 7 | Colombia | 5 | 7.42 | 3.12 | +4.30 |
| 8 | Switzerland | 6 | 9.68 | 6.26 | +3.42 |
| 9 | Senegal | 4 | 8.84 | 5.87 | +2.97 |
| 10 | Turkiye | 3 | 6.58 | 3.63 | +2.95 |
| 11 | Mexico | 5 | 6.66 | 3.87 | +2.79 |
| 12 | Belgium | 6 | 10.87 | 8.11 | +2.76 |
| 13 | England | 7 | 11.14 | 8.63 | +2.51 |
| 14 | Ecuador | 4 | 5.87 | 3.72 | +2.15 |
| 15 | Netherlands | 4 | 5.48 | 3.60 | +1.88 |
| 16 | Uruguay | 3 | 4.24 | 2.40 | +1.84 |
Total xG includes group-stage and completed knockout xG-backed matches. It does not change the bracket; the score decides advancement.
More context: World Cup 2026 bracket · results and xG · xG stat leaders · biggest xG robberies.