Scores with xG verdicts
Latest completed matches, scorelines, match xG and luck verdicts.
Latest post-match xG · updated 30 July 2026, 12:26 ET · 104 matches with xG
World Cup 2026 Knockout xG Dashboard & Luck Table
Track post-match knockout xG verdicts, the bracket, total xG leaders, and the original group-stage luck table.
Latest knockout verdict: Spain 1–0 Argentina — Spain advanced with an xG edge (2.29–0.22 xG), winning 1–0.
Still-alive xG leader: Spain at +13.27 total xGD.
By group-stage points versus xPts, Uruguay are the unluckiest team — 2 points from 5.05 expected points (Δ -3.05). At the other end, Mexico are the biggest overperformers, banking 9 points on just 5.68 group-stage xPts (Δ +3.32).
📈 If the table were ranked by expected points, Turkiye would climb 3 places in Group D.
Start here
Bracket and guides
Confirmed paths, completed scores and current knockout guide pages.
Pick a team on the chart
Select a flag to open team links, latest match and knockout status.
xG leaderboards
Total xGF, xGA, xGD and finishing leaders across xG-backed matches.
The xG visualizer
The xG Luck Quadrant shows which teams are scoring more than expected, conceding fewer than expected, or deserving better results.
Each team is plotted by total finishing luck (goals − xG) against total defensive luck (xGA − goals against) across all xG-backed matches so far — not raw xG vs goals; the crosshair is the field average. Bottom-left = deserved better, top-right = riding their luck. Either axis is switchable. Independent visualization on public post-match xG; xPts is our own Poisson model, so figures may differ from other public xG sources.
Knockout stage
Which teams advanced against xG?
Every completed knockout match classified by xG edge, against-xG result, and near-even verdict.
Mexico vs England
Match 92: total tournament xG, group-stage baseline and prior knockout receipts. Not a prediction.
4 quarter-final guides
Total tournament xG, prior knockout receipts and the route from the Round of 32. Not a prediction.
Semi-finals and final hubs
Stable guide hubs are ready before the slots resolve, then fill automatically from the bracket.
The final xG guide
The final hub becomes the champion xG verdict once Match 104 has post-match xG.
8 Round of 16 guides
Total tournament xG, group-stage baseline and the Round of 32 path so far. Not a prediction.
16 Round of 32 result verdicts
16 confirmed matchups with group-stage xGF, xGA, xPts and post-match verdicts as games finish.
Full knockout bracket
Confirmed slots, completed scores, match xG and pending paths in one bracket view.
Current xG storylines
Brazil eliminated despite 2.61-1.05 xG edge
Norway beat Brazil 2-1; Brazil had the stronger chance profile, but Norway advanced from a lower-xG night.
USA advanced, and FIFA cleared Balogun for Belgium
USA beat Bosnia and Herzegovina 2–0 with a 0.88-0.25 xG edge; Balogun scored, saw red, then had the automatic ban suspended before Belgium.
Belgium advanced despite Senegal's 3.58-1.74 xG edge
Belgium won 3–2; Senegal created 3.58 xG to Belgium's 1.74. Late-game heroics for Belgium, brutal xG exit for Senegal.
Mexico finished 10-3 on goals from 6.66-3.87 xG
England ended the clean-sheet run 3-2; Mexico still finished 3.34 above xG and 0.87 below xGA.
Germany eliminated despite 1.57-0.35 xG edge
Paraguay advanced after 1–1 (3–4 pens); Germany had the stronger chance profile, but the shootout swung the bracket.
Morocco advanced on penalties with a 1.38-0.24 xG edge
After 1–1 (2–3 pens), Morocco had the stronger chance profile and won the shootout; Netherlands were held to 0.24 xG.
Turkiye finished fourth despite 5.94 xPts
Turkiye were first in Group D by xPts and xGF but finished fourth. The Paraguay loss remains the swing: 2.17-0.32 xG, zero points.
FIFA #20 Uruguay missed the Round of 32
Uruguay were eliminated despite 5.05 xPts, while Cape Verde reached the Round of 32 on three draws.
South Korea finished third despite 5.09 xPts
South Korea took 3 points from 5.09 xPts, while South Africa took the Canada bracket slot with 4 points from 3.47 xPts.
Ecuador finished third despite 5.51 xPts
Ecuador were second in Group E by xPts, but Ivory Coast took the automatic slot with 6 points from 4.69 xPts.
Croatia finished second despite a negative xG profile
Croatia took 6 points from 3.47 xPts and a 2.77-4.39 xG profile. The swing was beating Ghana despite Ghana edging that match 0.64-0.42 on xG.
France
France are +0.53 xGD/G and 1.76 xPts/G through 2 xG matches against top-20 field opponents, with opponents averaging 17.5/48 in the World Cup field and FIFA #18.5 globally, the strongest chance profile among teams facing strong opposition.
Ecuador over Germany
Ecuador beat Germany from 23rd of 48 vs 12th of 48, and led xG 1.27–0.65.
Group-stage overperformers and unluckiest teams
Biggest group-stage overperformers
Deserved better in the group stage
- Uruguay-3.052 pts · 5.05 xPts
- Turkiye-2.943 pts · 5.94 xPts
- Panama-2.270 pts · 2.27 xPts
- Canada-2.244 pts · 6.24 xPts
- South Korea-2.093 pts · 5.09 xPts
What the metrics mean
- Expected goals (xG)
- Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of the chances a team creates: every shot is worth between 0 and 1 goals based on how likely it was to be scored. A team's xG is the sum of those values — what an average team would have scored from the same chances.
- Expected goals against (xGA)
- Expected goals against (xGA) applies the same idea to the chances a team concedes. Low xGA means a team gives up few good chances; high xGA means it is being opened up regularly.
- Expected points (xPts)
- Expected points (xPts) is how many points a team would earn on average given the chances created and conceded. It is computed with a two-team Poisson model: each side's match xG is treated as a scoring rate, every scoreline is assigned a probability, and xPts = 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw). Comparing actual points to xPts shows whether a team is over- or under-performing.
- Finishing (Goals − xG)
- Finishing is goals scored minus expected goals. A positive value means a team is scoring more than the quality of its chances suggests — clinical or fortunate; a negative value means it is being wasteful or unlucky in front of goal.
- Defensive luck (xGA − Goals against)
- Defensive luck is expected goals against minus goals conceded. Positive means a team concedes fewer goals than the chances it allows — good goalkeeping or fortune; negative means it is shipping more than it should.
- Δ (Points − xPts)
- Δ is actual points minus expected points. A large positive Δ marks an overperformer (clinical or lucky); a large negative Δ marks a team that has been unlucky and, on the balance of chances, deserved more.
- The Luck Quadrant
- The Luck Quadrant plots finishing (goals minus xG) against defensive luck (xGA minus goals against), with the crosshair at the field average. Teams in the top-right are riding their luck at both ends; teams in the bottom-left created and prevented more than their results show, and deserved better.
World Cup 2026 xG & expected points — FAQ
Which World Cup 2026 teams advanced against the xG profile?
The knockout xG verdicts page tracks every completed knockout match by whether the advancing team also led xG, advanced against the xG profile, or played a near-even match. It updates after the match is complete and published xG is available.
Where can I track World Cup 2026 xG luck?
xGQuadrant is a World Cup 2026 xG luck dashboard. It tracks goals vs xG, points vs expected points (xPts), match-by-match tournament luck, and which teams are lucky, unlucky, overperforming, or underperforming.
What is expected points (xPts)?
Expected points (xPts) is the number of points a team would earn on average given the quality of chances created and conceded. It is computed with a two-team Poisson model on match xG, where xPts = 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw). Comparing actual points to xPts shows whether a team is over- or under-performing.
What is the Luck Quadrant?
The Luck Quadrant plots finishing (goals minus expected goals) against defensive luck (expected goals against minus goals against), with the crosshair at the field average. Teams in the top-right are riding their luck; teams in the bottom-left deserved better than their results.