How lucky or unlucky were Croatia in the World Cup 2026 group stage?

Group-stage totals: 6 points from 3.47 xPts (points luck +2.53) and 5 goals conceded from 4.39 xGA (defensive luck -0.61). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Croatia's group-stage luck built game by game.

Where did Croatia finish in Group L?

Croatia finished second in Group L with 6 points from 3.47 group-stage xPts (Δ +2.53).

What are Croatia's group, knockout and total xG numbers?

Croatia have 2.77 group-stage xGF and 4.39 group-stage xGA, plus 1.34 knockout xGF and 2.20 knockout xGA. Total: 4.11 xGF, 6.59 xGA.

What was Croatia's best xG match?

Croatia's highest-xGF match was 1–0 vs Panama: 1.65 xG for and 0.55 xG against.

Croatia at the 2026 World Cup

Eliminated

Croatia are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 83 against Portugal. Portugal 2–1 Croatia; Portugal 2.20–1.34 Croatia xG.

Croatia have 6 points from 3.47 xPts, with group-stage results running ahead of the chances.

Next for Croatia

Knockout result

Croatia vs Portugal

Match 83 (Round of 32) result page with score, match xG and advancement context.

Latest xG match

1–2 vs Portugal

Knockout stage · xG 1.34-2.20 · eliminated

Group table

Group L finish

6 points from 3.47 group-stage xPts. Official group rank decides qualification.

Results

All scores with xG

Every finished match, scoreline, match xG and one-line verdict.

Quick answers

EliminatedAre Croatia eliminated from the World Cup 2026?: Croatia are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 83 against Portugal. Portugal 2–1 Croatia; Portugal 2.20–1.34 Croatia xG.
Riding their luckHow lucky or unlucky were Croatia in the World Cup 2026 group stage?: Group-stage totals: 6 points from 3.47 xPts (points luck +2.53) and 5 goals conceded from 4.39 xGA (defensive luck -0.61). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Croatia's group-stage luck built game by game.
Group finishWhere did Croatia finish in Group L?: Croatia finished second in Group L with 6 points from 3.47 group-stage xPts (Δ +2.53).
xG by stageWhat are Croatia's group, knockout and total xG numbers?: Croatia have 2.77 group-stage xGF and 4.39 group-stage xGA, plus 1.34 knockout xGF and 2.20 knockout xGA. Total: 4.11 xGF, 6.59 xGA.
Best xG matchWhat was Croatia's best xG match?: Croatia's highest-xGF match was 1–0 vs Panama: 1.65 xG for and 0.55 xG against.

xG by stage

Stage	Matches	Goals	xGF / xGA	xGD	xPts	Scope
Group stage	3	5–5	2.77 / 4.39	-1.62	3.48	Official group-table scope
Knockout	1	1–2	1.34 / 2.20	-0.86	0.89	Match xPts is chance context only
Total	4	6–7	4.11 / 6.59	-2.48	4.37	All completed xG-backed matches

Knockout status

EliminatedAre Croatia eliminated from the World Cup 2026?: Croatia are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 83 against Portugal. Portugal 2–1 Croatia; Portugal 2.20–1.34 Croatia xG. Croatia vs Portugal xG guide/result.

Knockout receipts

1-2 vs PortugalKnockout stage · xG 1.34-2.20 · match xPts 0.89 · eliminated

Group-stage match receipts

2-4 vs EnglandxG 0.70-3.20 · xPts 0.25 · Δ -0.25
1-0 vs PanamaxG 1.65-0.55 · xPts 2.17 · Δ +0.83
2-1 vs GhanaxG 0.42-0.64 · xPts 1.06 · Δ +1.94

Featured story

Group L story

Croatia finished second despite a negative xG profile

Croatia took 6 points from 3.47 xPts and a 2.77-4.39 xG profile. The swing was beating Ghana despite Ghana edging that match 0.64-0.42 on xG.

Schedule context

Croatia are -1.62 xGD through 3 xG matches against opponents averaging 27.3/48 in the World Cup field and FIFA #37.7 globally; trailed xG against a mid-ranked opponent field.

Group	Group L · 2nd in group
Knockout status	Eliminated Out after Match 83 vs Portugal
Published FIFA rank	FIFA #13 · 13th of 48 World Cup teams
xG vs schedule	Avg opponent field rank 27.3 / 48 · Avg opponent FIFA #37.7 · trailed xG against a mid-ranked opponent field
Group-stage played / record	3 · 2W 0D 1L
Group-stage points	6
Group-stage expected points (xPts)	3.47
Group-stage Δ (Points − xPts)	+2.53
Group-stage goals for / against	5 / 5
Group-stage xG for / against	2.77 / 4.39
Group-stage finishing (Goals − xG)	+2.23
Group-stage defensive luck (xGA − GA)	-0.61

Where Croatia sit on the total xG luck quadrant

Where Croatia sit across all xG-backed matches so far — finishing luck (goals − xG) across, defensive luck (xGA − goals conceded) up; the crosshair is zero, exactly as the chances suggest. On the balance of play they are clinical but leaky.

See Croatia on the full interactive luck quadrant →

Best and worst group-stage xG matches

Best xG performance

Croatia 1–0 Panama

Croatia had their strongest chance profile against Panama, winning the xG battle 1.65–0.55.

Most fortunate result

Croatia vs Ghana

Croatia took 3 points from 1.06 xPts (Δ +1.94).

Group-stage match by match

Group-stage match-by-match luck — points taken minus expected points (xPts) each game. Green = took more than the chances deserved, red = deserved more.

Date	Match	Score	Group xG	xPts	Δ
17 June	@ England	2–4	0.70–3.20	0.25	-0.25
23 June	@ Panama	1–0	1.65–0.55	2.17	+0.83
27 June	v Ghana	2–1	0.42–0.64	1.06	+1.94

Δ here is per group-stage match: the points Croatia took that game minus their expected points (xPts) for it. Negative = robbed, positive = fortunate.

Knockout match by match

Date	Match	Score	Knockout xG	Match xPts	Verdict
2 July	@ Portugal	1–2	1.34–2.20	0.89	Portugal advanced with an xG edge (2.20–1.34 xG), winning 2–1.

Knockout rows are not added to group points or group-stage xPts. The score decides advancement; match xPts is chance-profile context.

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