World Cup 2026 standings — actual vs expected points
As of matchday 1: 16 matches played, 32 of 48 teams underway.
Every group with expected points (xPts) next to the official table. The Δ column is actual points minus expected points: a green, positive Δ means a team is overperforming (clinical or lucky); a red, negative Δ means it has been unlucky and deserved more.
Group A
Mexico lead Group A with 3 points (2.47 xPts). Czechia are the unlucky side here — 0 points from 0.53 expected (Δ -0.53).
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF | GA | Pts | xG | xGA | xPts | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mexico | 1 | 1-0-0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1.46 | 0.07 | 2.47 | +0.53 |
| 2 | South Korea | 1 | 1-0-0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2.30 | 0.83 | 2.29 | +0.71 |
| 3 | Czechia | 1 | 0-0-1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.83 | 2.30 | 0.53 | -0.53 |
| 4 | South Africa | 1 | 0-0-1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 1.46 | 0.29 | -0.29 |
Group B
Switzerland lead Group B with 1 point (2.70 xPts). Switzerland are the unlucky side here — 1 point from 2.70 expected (Δ -1.70). On expected points, Qatar would rank 1 place lower.
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF | GA | Pts | xG | xGA | xPts | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Switzerland | 1 | 0-1-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3.20 | 0.60 | 2.70 | -1.70 |
| 2 | Canada | 1 | 0-1-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.23 | 0.96 | 1.56 | -0.56 |
| 3 | Qatar | 1 | 0-1-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.60 | 3.20 | 0.21 | +0.79 |
| 4 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 1 | 0-1-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.96 | 1.23 | 1.15 | -0.15 |
Group C
Scotland lead Group C with 3 points (1.35 xPts). Haiti are the unlucky side here — 0 points from 1.35 expected (Δ -1.35). On expected points, Scotland would rank 1 place lower.
Group D
USA lead Group D with 3 points (2.04 xPts). Turkiye are the unlucky side here — 0 points from 1.49 expected (Δ -1.49). On expected points, Australia would rank 1 place lower.
Group E
Germany lead Group E with 3 points (2.89 xPts). Ecuador are the unlucky side here — 0 points from 1.01 expected (Δ -1.01).
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF | GA | Pts | xG | xGA | xPts | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Germany | 1 | 1-0-0 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 4.22 | 0.41 | 2.89 | +0.11 |
| 2 | Ivory Coast | 1 | 1-0-0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1.52 | 1.01 | 1.73 | +1.27 |
| 3 | Ecuador | 1 | 0-0-1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.01 | 1.52 | 1.01 | -1.01 |
| 4 | Curacao | 1 | 0-0-1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0.41 | 4.22 | 0.07 | -0.07 |
Group F
Sweden lead Group F with 3 points (2.21 xPts). Tunisia are the unlucky side here — 0 points from 0.51 expected (Δ -0.51). On expected points, Japan would rank 1 place lower.
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF | GA | Pts | xG | xGA | xPts | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sweden | 1 | 1-0-0 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1.33 | 0.28 | 2.21 | +0.79 |
| 2 | Japan | 1 | 0-1-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.59 | 0.78 | 1.13 | -0.13 |
| 3 | Netherlands | 1 | 0-1-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.78 | 0.59 | 1.48 | -0.48 |
| 4 | Tunisia | 1 | 0-0-1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0.28 | 1.33 | 0.51 | -0.51 |
Group G
New Zealand lead Group G with 1 point (1.20 xPts). Belgium are the unlucky side here — 1 point from 1.56 expected (Δ -0.56). On expected points, New Zealand would rank 2 places lower.
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF | GA | Pts | xG | xGA | xPts | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Zealand | 1 | 0-1-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1.24 | 1.50 | 1.20 | -0.20 |
| 2 | Iran | 1 | 0-1-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1.50 | 1.24 | 1.55 | -0.55 |
| 3 | Belgium | 1 | 0-1-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.35 | 1.08 | 1.56 | -0.56 |
| 4 | Egypt | 1 | 0-1-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.08 | 1.35 | 1.17 | -0.17 |
Group H
Uruguay lead Group H with 1 point (2.12 xPts). Spain are the unlucky side here — 1 point from 2.62 expected (Δ -1.62). On expected points, Spain would rank 2 places higher.
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF | GA | Pts | xG | xGA | xPts | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uruguay | 1 | 0-1-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.72 | 0.66 | 2.12 | -1.12 |
| 2 | Saudi Arabia | 1 | 0-1-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.66 | 1.72 | 0.65 | +0.35 |
| 3 | Spain | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2.10 | 0.20 | 2.62 | -1.62 |
| 4 | Cape Verde | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.20 | 2.10 | 0.23 | +0.77 |
Group I
Group I has not kicked off yet. Once the opening matches are played, expected points and the over/under-performance breakdown will appear here.
Group J
Group J has not kicked off yet. Once the opening matches are played, expected points and the over/under-performance breakdown will appear here.
Group K
Group K has not kicked off yet. Once the opening matches are played, expected points and the over/under-performance breakdown will appear here.
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF | GA | Pts | xG | xGA | xPts | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colombia | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2 | DR Congo | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 3 | Portugal | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 4 | Uzbekistan | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Group L
Group L has not kicked off yet. Once the opening matches are played, expected points and the over/under-performance breakdown will appear here.