World Cup 2026 standings — actual vs expected points
Group stage complete: 72 group matches played, 48 of 48 teams with group results.
Every group with group-stage expected points (xPts) next to the official table. The Δ column is actual group points minus group-stage xPts: a green, positive Δ means a team is overperforming (clinical or lucky); a red, negative Δ means it has taken fewer points than its chance profile suggests.
Group winners and runners-up
The top two teams from every finished group advanced automatically. xPts leader is included as context only; the official table decides the Round of 32 slots.
| Group | Finished first | Finished second | xPts leader |
|---|---|---|---|
| Group A | Mexico (9 pts) | South Africa (4 pts) | Mexico (5.68 xPts) |
| Group B | Switzerland (7 pts) | Canada (4 pts) | Switzerland (6.30 xPts) |
| Group C | Brazil (7 pts) | Morocco (7 pts) | Brazil (6.50 xPts) |
| Group D | USA (6 pts) | Australia (4 pts) | Turkiye (5.94 xPts) |
| Group E | Germany (6 pts) | Ivory Coast (6 pts) | Germany (5.57 xPts) |
| Group F | Netherlands (7 pts) | Japan (5 pts) | Netherlands (6.01 xPts) |
| Group G | Belgium (5 pts) | Egypt (5 pts) | Belgium (6.63 xPts) |
| Group H | Spain (7 pts) | Cape Verde (3 pts) | Spain (7.28 xPts) |
| Group I | France (9 pts) | Norway (6 pts) | France (6.06 xPts) |
| Group J | Argentina (9 pts) | Austria (4 pts) | Argentina (6.88 xPts) |
| Group K | Colombia (7 pts) | Portugal (5 pts) | Colombia (5.45 xPts) |
| Group L | England (7 pts) | Croatia (6 pts) | England (7.01 xPts) |
Quick answers
- Qualified teamsWho has qualified for the World Cup 2026 Round of 32?
- Confirmed knockout slots: Mexico, South Africa, Switzerland, Canada, Brazil, Morocco, USA, Australia, Germany, Ivory Coast, Netherlands, Japan, Belgium, Egypt, Spain, Cape Verde, France, Norway, Argentina, Austria, Colombia, Portugal, England and Croatia. Best third-place qualifiers: DR Congo, Sweden, Ecuador, Ghana, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Algeria, Paraguay and Senegal. Eliminated third-place teams: Iran, South Korea, Scotland and Uruguay.
- Top two by groupWho finished first and second in each World Cup 2026 group?
- Group A: Mexico first, South Africa second; Group B: Switzerland first, Canada second; Group C: Brazil first, Morocco second; Group D: USA first, Australia second; Group E: Germany first, Ivory Coast second; Group F: Netherlands first, Japan second; Group G: Belgium first, Egypt second; Group H: Spain first, Cape Verde second; Group I: France first, Norway second; Group J: Argentina first, Austria second; Group K: Colombia first, Portugal second; Group L: England first, Croatia second.
- Round of 16Who has advanced to the World Cup 2026 Round of 16?
- Canada, Morocco, Paraguay, France, Brazil, Norway, Mexico, England, Portugal, Spain, the USA, Belgium, Argentina, Egypt, Switzerland and Colombia have advanced to the Round of 16.
- Finished groupsWhich World Cup 2026 groups are finished?
- Groups A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K and L are finished.
- Unlucky teamsWho is most unlucky by expected points at the World Cup 2026?
- Uruguay have the biggest points-versus-xPts underperformance: 2 points from 5.05 xPts (Δ -3.05). Next are Turkiye (Δ -2.94) and Panama (Δ -2.27).
- Eliminated xPts caseWhich eliminated team has the strongest xPts case?
- Turkiye are the clearest eliminated xPts case: fourth in Group D despite 5.94 xPts and 6.58 xGF.
- xPts definitionWhat does xPts mean in the World Cup 2026 standings?
- Expected points (xPts) estimates how many points a team would earn from its chances using a Poisson model on match xG. The Δ column is actual points minus xPts, so negative values show teams whose results trail their chance quality.
Points vs xPts watch
The biggest negative gaps show teams whose results trail their chance quality. For third-place context, see the best third-place tracker.
Knockout paths from the table
The confirmed Round of 32 matchups come from the official group standings plus FIFA's third-place allocation matrix. Open every Round of 32 xG form guide.
| Match | Matchup | Group xPts | Group xGF / xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | South Africa vs Canada | 3.47 / 6.24 | 2.61-3.38 / 7.49-2.29 |
| 74 | Germany vs Paraguay | 5.57 / 1.88 | 6.76-2.90 / 1.10-4.14 |
| 75 | Netherlands vs Morocco | 6.01 / 5.75 | 5.24-2.22 / 6.12-2.99 |
| 76 | Brazil vs Japan | 6.50 / 5.67 | 7.34-2.64 / 3.93-1.47 |
| 77 | France vs Sweden | 6.06 / 3.63 | 5.96-2.86 / 2.98-4.10 |
| 78 | Ivory Coast vs Norway | 4.69 / 5.59 | 4.05-3.40 / 6.42-4.02 |
| 79 | Mexico vs Ecuador | 5.68 / 5.51 | 3.73-1.51 / 5.12-2.67 |
| 80 | England vs DR Congo | 7.01 / 4.93 | 6.12-1.53 / 3.42-1.83 |
| 81 | USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina | 4.96 / 2.64 | 4.63-3.94 / 1.87-4.06 |
| 82 | Belgium vs Senegal | 6.63 / 4.50 | 6.78-1.94 / 5.26-4.13 |
| 83 | Portugal vs Croatia | 4.72 / 3.47 | 4.19-2.81 / 2.77-4.39 |
| 84 | Spain vs Austria | 7.28 / 3.87 | 5.26-0.54 / 3.71-4.49 |
| 85 | Switzerland vs Algeria | 6.30 / 4.31 | 6.37-2.49 / 3.88-3.38 |
| 86 | Argentina vs Cape Verde | 6.88 / 2.93 | 5.75-1.61 / 2.47-4.81 |
| 87 | Colombia vs Ghana | 5.45 / 3.66 | 4.29-2.46 / 2.06-2.51 |
| 88 | Australia vs Egypt | 3.51 / 3.63 | 2.08-2.68 / 3.79-4.56 |
Hardest group by published FIFA field rank: Group I has the lowest average World Cup field rank (20.0 of 48), led by France (3rd of 48). See all published FIFA rank context →
By confederation: compare · knockout bracket · best third-place tracker · UEFA · CONMEBOL · CAF · AFC · CONCACAF
Group A
Mexico finished first in Group A with 9 points (5.68 xPts). South Africa took the other automatic Round of 32 slot; South Korea finished third and are mathematically eliminated from best-third-place contention. South Korea are the unlucky side here — 3 points from 5.09 expected (Δ -2.09). On expected points, South Africa would rank 1 place lower.
Published-rank context: Group A averages 27.5 in World Cup field rank, with Mexico (10th of 48) highest and South Africa (36th) lowest; 1 top-half team, 1 top-quarter team.
Strongest group-stage opposition faced: South Africa have faced opponents averaging 24.7/48 in the World Cup field and FIFA #30.0 globally; trailed xG against a mid-ranked opponent field.
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF | GA | Pts | xGF | xGA | Group xPts | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mexico | 3 | 3-0-0 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 3.73 | 1.51 | 5.68 | +3.32 |
| 2 | South Africa | 3 | 1-1-1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2.61 | 3.38 | 3.47 | +0.53 |
| 3 | South Korea | 3 | 1-0-2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4.11 | 2.52 | 5.09 | -2.09 |
| 4 | Czechia | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2.38 | 5.42 | 2.18 | -1.18 |
Group B
Switzerland finished first in Group B with 7 points (6.30 xPts). Group B's final standings matched the expected-points (xPts) order. Canada took the other automatic Round of 32 slot; Bosnia and Herzegovina finished third and qualified via the best-third-place table. Canada are the unlucky side here — 4 points from 6.24 expected (Δ -2.24).
Published-rank context: Group B averages 30.3 in World Cup field rank, with Switzerland (14th of 48) highest and Bosnia and Herzegovina (41st) lowest; 1 top-half team, 0 top-quarter teams.
Strongest group-stage opposition faced: Bosnia and Herzegovina have faced opponents averaging 26.7/48 in the World Cup field and FIFA #34.3 globally; trailed xG against a mid-ranked opponent field.
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF | GA | Pts | xGF | xGA | Group xPts | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Switzerland | 3 | 2-1-0 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 6.37 | 2.49 | 6.30 | +0.70 |
| 2 | Canada | 3 | 1-1-1 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 7.49 | 2.29 | 6.24 | -2.24 |
| 3 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 3 | 1-1-1 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1.87 | 4.06 | 2.64 | +1.36 |
| 4 | Qatar | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 1.59 | 8.48 | 1.63 | -0.63 |
Group C
Brazil finished first in Group C with 7 points (6.50 xPts). Group C's final standings matched the expected-points (xPts) order. Morocco took the other automatic Round of 32 slot; Scotland finished third and are mathematically eliminated from best-third-place contention. Haiti are the unlucky side here — 0 points from 2.01 expected (Δ -2.01).
Published-rank context: Group C averages 23.0 in World Cup field rank, with Brazil (5th of 48) highest and Haiti (48th) lowest; 2 top-half teams, 2 top-quarter teams.
Strongest group-stage opposition faced: Haiti have faced opponents averaging 14.7/48 in the World Cup field and FIFA #17.7 globally; trailed xG against a strong opponent field.
Group D
USA finished first in Group D with 6 points (4.96 xPts). Australia took the other automatic Round of 32 slot; Paraguay finished third and qualified via the best-third-place table. By xPts, Turkiye were Group D's strongest side (5.94) but finished fourth and are eliminated. Turkiye are the unlucky side here — 3 points from 5.94 expected (Δ -2.94). On expected points, Turkiye would rank 3 places higher.
Published-rank context: Group D averages 23.5 in World Cup field rank, with USA (15th of 48) highest and Paraguay (30th) lowest; 2 top-half teams, 0 top-quarter teams.
Strongest group-stage opposition faced: Paraguay have faced opponents averaging 21.3/48 in the World Cup field and FIFA #23.7 globally; trailed xG against a mid-ranked opponent field.
Group E
Germany finished first in Group E with 6 points (5.57 xPts). Ivory Coast took the other automatic Round of 32 slot; Ecuador finished third and qualified via the best-third-place table. Ecuador are the unlucky side here — 4 points from 5.51 expected (Δ -1.51). On expected points, Ivory Coast would rank 1 place lower.
Published-rank context: Group E averages 27.3 in World Cup field rank, with Germany (12th of 48) highest and Curacao (46th) lowest; 2 top-half teams, 1 top-quarter team.
Strongest group-stage opposition faced: Curacao have faced opponents averaging 21.0/48 in the World Cup field and FIFA #22.7 globally; trailed xG against a mid-ranked opponent field.
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF | GA | Pts | xGF | xGA | Group xPts | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Germany | 3 | 2-0-1 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 6.76 | 2.90 | 5.57 | +0.43 |
| 2 | Ivory Coast | 3 | 2-0-1 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 4.05 | 3.40 | 4.69 | +1.31 |
| 3 | Ecuador | 3 | 1-1-1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5.12 | 2.67 | 5.51 | -1.51 |
| 4 | Curacao | 3 | 0-1-2 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 1.41 | 8.37 | 1.01 | -0.01 |
Group F
Netherlands finished first in Group F with 7 points (6.01 xPts). Group F's final standings matched the expected-points (xPts) order. Japan took the other automatic Round of 32 slot; Sweden finished third and qualified via the best-third-place table. Tunisia are the unlucky side here — 0 points from 1.22 expected (Δ -1.22).
Published-rank context: Group F averages 23.3 in World Cup field rank, with Netherlands (9th of 48) highest and Tunisia (37th) lowest; 2 top-half teams, 1 top-quarter team.
Strongest group-stage opposition faced: Tunisia have faced opponents averaging 18.7/48 in the World Cup field and FIFA #21.0 globally; trailed xG against a strong opponent field.
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF | GA | Pts | xGF | xGA | Group xPts | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Netherlands | 3 | 2-1-0 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 5.24 | 2.22 | 6.01 | +0.99 |
| 2 | Japan | 3 | 1-2-0 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 3.93 | 1.47 | 5.67 | -0.67 |
| 3 | Sweden | 3 | 1-1-1 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2.98 | 4.10 | 3.63 | +0.37 |
| 4 | Tunisia | 3 | 0-0-3 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0.95 | 5.31 | 1.22 | -1.22 |
Group G
Belgium finished first in Group G with 5 points (6.63 xPts). Egypt took the other automatic Round of 32 slot; Iran finished third and are mathematically eliminated from best-third-place contention. Belgium are the unlucky side here — 5 points from 6.63 expected (Δ -1.63). On expected points, Egypt would rank 1 place lower.
Published-rank context: Group G averages 24.3 in World Cup field rank, with Belgium (8th of 48) highest and New Zealand (47th) lowest; 3 top-half teams, 1 top-quarter team.
Strongest group-stage opposition faced: New Zealand have faced opponents averaging 16.7/48 in the World Cup field and FIFA #18.0 globally; trailed xG against a strong opponent field.
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF | GA | Pts | xGF | xGA | Group xPts | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belgium | 3 | 1-2-0 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 6.78 | 1.94 | 6.63 | -1.63 |
| 2 | Egypt | 3 | 1-2-0 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3.79 | 4.56 | 3.63 | +1.37 |
| 3 | Iran | 3 | 0-3-0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4.09 | 3.87 | 4.27 | -1.27 |
| 4 | New Zealand | 3 | 0-1-2 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 2.72 | 7.01 | 2.25 | -1.25 |
Group H
Spain finished first in Group H with 7 points (7.28 xPts). Cape Verde took the other automatic Round of 32 slot; Uruguay finished third and are mathematically eliminated from best-third-place contention. Uruguay are the unlucky side here — 2 points from 5.05 expected (Δ -3.05). On expected points, Cape Verde would rank 1 place lower.
Published-rank context: Group H averages 25.3 in World Cup field rank, with Spain (1st of 48) highest and Cape Verde (43rd) lowest; 2 top-half teams, 1 top-quarter team.
Strongest group-stage opposition faced: Cape Verde have faced opponents averaging 19.3/48 in the World Cup field and FIFA #26.3 globally; trailed xG against a strong opponent field.
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF | GA | Pts | xGF | xGA | Group xPts | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 3 | 2-1-0 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 5.26 | 0.54 | 7.28 | -0.28 |
| 2 | Cape Verde | 3 | 0-3-0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2.47 | 4.81 | 2.93 | +0.07 |
| 3 | Uruguay | 3 | 0-2-1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4.24 | 2.40 | 5.05 | -3.05 |
| 4 | Saudi Arabia | 3 | 0-2-1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1.19 | 5.41 | 1.39 | +0.61 |
Group I
France finished first in Group I with 9 points (6.06 xPts). Group I's final standings matched the expected-points (xPts) order. Norway took the other automatic Round of 32 slot; Senegal finished third and qualified via the best-third-place table. Senegal are the unlucky side here — 3 points from 4.50 expected (Δ -1.50).
Published-rank context: Group I averages 20.0 in World Cup field rank, with France (3rd of 48) highest and Iraq (42nd) lowest; 3 top-half teams, 1 top-quarter team.
Strongest group-stage opposition faced: Iraq have faced opponents averaging 12.7/48 in the World Cup field and FIFA #13.3 globally; trailed xG against a strong opponent field.
Group J
Argentina finished first in Group J with 9 points (6.88 xPts). Austria took the other automatic Round of 32 slot; Algeria finished third and qualified via the best-third-place table. Jordan are the unlucky side here — 0 points from 1.62 expected (Δ -1.62). On expected points, Austria would rank 1 place lower.
Published-rank context: Group J averages 23.5 in World Cup field rank, with Argentina (2nd of 48) highest and Jordan (45th) lowest; 2 top-half teams, 1 top-quarter team.
Strongest group-stage opposition faced: Jordan have faced opponents averaging 16.3/48 in the World Cup field and FIFA #18.0 globally; trailed xG against a strong opponent field.
Group K
Colombia finished first in Group K with 7 points (5.45 xPts). Portugal took the other automatic Round of 32 slot; DR Congo finished third and qualified via the best-third-place table. Uzbekistan are the unlucky side here — 0 points from 1.45 expected (Δ -1.45). On expected points, Portugal would rank 1 place lower.
Published-rank context: Group K averages 22.5 in World Cup field rank, with Portugal (7th of 48) highest and Uzbekistan (40th) lowest; 2 top-half teams, 2 top-quarter teams.
Strongest group-stage opposition faced: Uzbekistan have faced opponents averaging 16.7/48 in the World Cup field and FIFA #19.7 globally; trailed xG against a strong opponent field.
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF | GA | Pts | xGF | xGA | Group xPts | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colombia | 3 | 2-1-0 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 4.29 | 2.46 | 5.45 | +1.55 |
| 2 | Portugal | 3 | 1-2-0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 4.19 | 2.81 | 4.72 | +0.28 |
| 3 | DR Congo | 3 | 1-1-1 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3.42 | 1.83 | 4.93 | -0.93 |
| 4 | Uzbekistan | 3 | 0-0-3 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 1.60 | 6.40 | 1.45 | -1.45 |
Group L
England finished first in Group L with 7 points (7.01 xPts). Croatia took the other automatic Round of 32 slot; Ghana finished third and qualified via the best-third-place table. Panama are the unlucky side here — 0 points from 2.27 expected (Δ -2.27). On expected points, Croatia would rank 1 place lower.
Published-rank context: Group L averages 23.8 in World Cup field rank, with England (4th of 48) highest and Ghana (44th) lowest; 2 top-half teams, 1 top-quarter team.
Strongest group-stage opposition faced: Ghana have faced opponents averaging 17.0/48 in the World Cup field and FIFA #20.3 globally; level on xG against a strong opponent field.