3–2 vs USA
Group D · xG 3.05-2.13
Turkiye at the 2026 World Cup
Group exitTurkiye did not qualify for the World Cup 2026 knockout stage. Turkiye finished fourth in Group D with 3 points from 5.94 group-stage xPts (Δ -2.94).
Turkey (Turkiye) have 3 goals from 6.58 xG, the sharpest finishing underperformance in the World Cup 2026 group stage.
Next for Turkiye
Group D finish
3 points from 5.94 group-stage xPts. Official group rank decides qualification.
All scores with xG
Every finished match, scoreline, match xG and one-line verdict.
Quick answers
- Group exitDid Turkiye qualify for the World Cup 2026 knockouts?
- Turkiye did not qualify for the World Cup 2026 knockout stage. Turkiye finished fourth in Group D with 3 points from 5.94 group-stage xPts (Δ -2.94).
- Finishing underperformanceHow lucky or unlucky were Turkey (Turkiye) in the World Cup 2026 group stage?
- Group-stage totals: 3 points from 5.94 xPts (points luck -2.94) and 5 goals conceded from 3.63 xGA (defensive luck -1.37). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Turkey (Turkiye)'s group-stage luck built game by game.
- Group finishWhere did Turkiye finish in Group D?
- Turkiye finished fourth in Group D with 3 points from 5.94 group-stage xPts (Δ -2.94).
- xG by stageWhat are Turkiye's group, knockout and total xG numbers?
- Turkiye have 6.58 group-stage xGF and 3.63 group-stage xGA. No knockout xG is recorded for them yet.
- Best xG matchWhat was Turkiye's best xG match?
- Turkiye's highest-xGF match was 3–2 vs USA: 3.05 xG for and 2.13 xG against.
xG by stage
| Stage | Matches | Goals | xGF / xGA | xGD | xPts | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Group stage | 3 | 3–5 | 6.58 / 3.63 | +2.95 | 5.94 | Official group-table scope |
| Total | 3 | 3–5 | 6.58 / 3.63 | +2.95 | 5.94 | All completed xG-backed matches |
Group-stage match receipts
- 0-2 vs AustraliaxG 1.36-1.18 · xPts 1.49 · Δ -1.49
- 0-1 vs ParaguayxG 2.17-0.32 · xPts 2.57 · Δ -2.57
- 3-2 vs USAxG 3.05-2.13 · xPts 1.88 · Δ +1.12
Featured story
Turkiye finished fourth despite 5.94 xPts
Turkiye were first in Group D by xPts and xGF but finished fourth. The Paraguay loss remains the swing: 2.17-0.32 xG, zero points.
Turkiye are +2.95 xGD through 3 xG matches against opponents averaging 23.3/48 in the World Cup field and FIFA #26.0 globally; led xG against a mid-ranked opponent field.
| Group | Group D · 4th in group |
|---|---|
| Knockout status | Group exit Group-stage exit |
| Published FIFA rank | FIFA #27 · 24th of 48 World Cup teams |
| xG vs schedule | Avg opponent field rank 23.3 / 48 · Avg opponent FIFA #26.0 · led xG against a mid-ranked opponent field |
| Group-stage played / record | 3 · 1W 0D 2L |
| Group-stage points | 3 |
| Group-stage expected points (xPts) | 5.94 |
| Group-stage Δ (Points − xPts) | -2.94 |
| Group-stage goals for / against | 3 / 5 |
| Group-stage xG for / against | 6.58 / 3.63 |
| Group-stage finishing (Goals − xG) | -3.58 |
| Group-stage defensive luck (xGA − GA) | -1.37 |
Where Turkiye sit on the total xG luck quadrant
See Turkiye on the full interactive luck quadrant →
Best and worst group-stage xG matches
Turkiye 0–1 Paraguay
Turkiye had their strongest chance profile against Paraguay, winning the xG battle 2.17–0.32.
Turkiye vs Paraguay
Turkiye took 0 points from 2.57 xPts (Δ -2.57).
Turkiye vs USA
Turkiye took 3 points from 1.88 xPts (Δ +1.12).
Group-stage match by match
| Date | Match | Score | Group xG | xPts | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 June | @  Australia | 0–2 | 1.36–1.18 | 1.49 | -1.49 |
| 19 June | v  Paraguay | 0–1 | 2.17–0.32 | 2.57 | -2.57 |
| 25 June | v  USA | 3–2 | 3.05–2.13 | 1.88 | +1.12 |
Δ here is per group-stage match: the points Turkiye took that game minus their expected points (xPts) for it. Negative = robbed, positive = fortunate.
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