Turkiye 0–1 Paraguay
Turkiye dominated the chances (2.17–0.32 xG) but lost 0–1 — a full-point xPts robbery.
Quick answers
- ResultWho won Turkiye vs Paraguay?
- Paraguay won 1–0. The xG was Turkiye 2.17, Paraguay 0.32.
- Better xGWho had the better xG in Turkiye vs Paraguay?
- Turkiye had the better xG profile, leading the chance quality 2.17–0.32, but Paraguay won 1–0.
- Fair resultWas Turkiye 0–1 Paraguay fair by xG?
- No. Paraguay won the scoreboard, but Turkiye had the stronger xG profile.
- Biggest xG takeawayWhat was the biggest xG takeaway?
- Paraguay took 3 points from 0.28 xPts (Δ +2.72), the biggest points-vs-chances swing in the match.
- Ranking contextWas Turkiye 0–1 Paraguay a published FIFA ranking upset?
- Yes on the scoreboard, but not by xG. Paraguay entered 33rd of 48 in the World Cup field; Turkiye entered 20th of 48. Paraguay won with the scoreline Turkiye 0–1 Paraguay, while the xG was 0.32–2.17 from the lower-ranked team's view.
Turkiye finished fourth despite 5.94 xPts: Turkiye were first in Group D by xPts and xGF but finished fourth. The Paraguay loss remains the swing: 2.17-0.32 xG, zero points.
| Score | 0–1 |
|---|---|
| Expected goals (xG) | Turkiye 2.17 · Paraguay 0.32 |
| Expected points (xPts) | Turkiye 2.57 · Paraguay 0.28 |
| Stage | Group D |
| Published FIFA rank | Turkiye FIFA #22 (20th of 48) · Paraguay FIFA #41 (33rd of 48) |
Who had the better xG in Turkiye vs Paraguay?
Turkiye created the better chances — 2.17–0.32 xG, an edge of 1.85. Yet Paraguay won 1–0, a result that defied the expected goals. In expected points, Turkiye earned 2.57 and Paraguay 0.28 from this game; the actual return was 0 and 3 (Δ -2.57 for Turkiye, +2.72 for Paraguay).
Was Turkiye lucky or unlucky?
Turkiye were wasteful in front of goal — just 0 from 2.17 xG, but punished at the back, shipping 1 from only 0.32 xGA faced. On balance their result return trailed the chances (Δ -2.57).
Was Paraguay lucky or unlucky?
Paraguay were clinical in front of goal — 1 goal from 0.32 xG, and well protected at the back, conceding 0 from 2.17 xGA faced. On balance a fortunate return — more than the chances merited (Δ +2.72).
What Turkiye 0–1 Paraguay means for Group D
Turkiye sit 4th in Group D on 3 points (5.94 xPts, Δ -2.94); Paraguay sit 3rd on 4 points (1.88 xPts, Δ +2.12). See the full Group D table →
19 June xG recap · Turkiye · Paraguay · xG robberies · stat leaders · ← All results