The biggest xG robberies of the World Cup 2026

The biggest negative points-vs-xPts swing so far is Turkiye: 0–1 against Paraguay despite 2.17–0.32 expected goals; Turkiye 0 points from 2.57 expected points (Δ -2.57). The tables rank every team's single-match result by actual return minus match xPts: the most negative are the robberies, the most positive the smash-and-grabs. In knockout matches, xPts is chance context only; the score decides who advances.

Biggest xG robberies (largest negative xPts swings)

#	Team	Result	xG	xPts	Δ
1	Turkiye	0–1 v Paraguay	2.17–0.32	2.57	-2.57
2	Brazil	1–2 v Norway	2.61–1.05	2.29	-2.29
3	Senegal	2–3 v Belgium	3.58–1.74	2.29	-2.29
4	Canada	1–2 v Switzerland	1.66–1.11	1.75	-1.75
5	Switzerland	1–1 v Qatar	3.20–0.60	2.70	-1.70
6	Ecuador	0–0 v Curacao	2.84–0.50	2.66	-1.66
7	South Korea	0–1 v Mexico	0.91–0.53	1.65	-1.65
8	Spain	0–0 v Cape Verde	2.10–0.20	2.62	-1.62
9	Mexico	2–3 v England	1.88–1.61	1.56	-1.56
10	Norway	1–4 v France	1.70–1.50	1.51	-1.51
11	Ghana	1–2 v Croatia	0.64–0.42	1.49	-1.49
12	Turkiye	0–2 v Australia	1.36–1.18	1.49	-1.49
13	France	4–6 v England	2.88–2.88	1.41	-1.41
14	Qatar	1–3 v Bosnia and Herzegovina	0.77–0.68	1.39	-1.39
15	Haiti	0–1 v Scotland	1.05–1.05	1.35	-1.35
16	Canada	0–3 v Morocco	0.84–0.82	1.34	-1.34

Most fortunate results (smash and grab)

#	Team	Result	xG	xPts	Δ
1	Paraguay	1–0 v Turkiye	0.32–2.17	0.28	+2.72
2	Norway	2–1 v Brazil	1.05–2.61	0.55	+2.45
3	Belgium	3–2 v Senegal	1.74–3.58	0.58	+2.42
4	Mexico	1–0 v South Korea	0.53–0.91	0.98	+2.02
5	Switzerland	2–1 v Canada	1.11–1.66	1.01	+1.99
6	Croatia	2–1 v Ghana	0.42–0.64	1.06	+1.94
7	England	3–2 v Mexico	1.61–1.88	1.22	+1.78
8	Bosnia and Herzegovina	3–1 v Qatar	0.68–0.77	1.23	+1.77
9	Australia	2–0 v Turkiye	1.18–1.36	1.24	+1.76
10	France	4–1 v Norway	1.50–1.70	1.26	+1.74
11	Morocco	3–0 v Canada	0.82–0.84	1.31	+1.69
12	Scotland	1–0 v Haiti	1.05–1.05	1.35	+1.65

Knockout xG upsets

Eliminated despite an xG edge

#	Team	Result	xG	xPts	Δ
1	Senegal	2–3 v Belgium	3.58–1.74	2.29	-2.29
2	Brazil	1–2 v Norway	2.61–1.05	2.29	-2.29
3	Germany	1–1 v Paraguay	1.57–0.35	2.29	-1.29
4	Colombia	0–0 v Switzerland	1.09–0.39	1.93	-0.93

Advanced against the xG run

#	Team	Result	xG	xPts	Δ
1	Belgium	3–2 v Senegal	1.74–3.58	0.58	+2.42
2	Norway	2–1 v Brazil	1.05–2.61	0.55	+2.45
3	Paraguay	1–1 v Germany	0.35–1.57	0.48	+0.52
4	Switzerland	0–0 v Colombia	0.39–1.09	0.73	+0.27

Full round-by-round classification: knockout xG verdicts.

In-depth xG story breakdowns

Unluckiest group-stage teams · xG stat leaders · Daily recaps · The xG visualizer

Match-level luck = the points a team took from a game minus its expected points (xPts) for that match. In knockouts, the same xPts model is used only as chance-profile context for advancement and elimination. Directional, not official.