The biggest xG robberies of the World Cup 2026
The most robbed team so far is Switzerland: 1–1 against Qatar despite 3.20–0.60 expected goals — worth 2.70 expected points, but only 1 taken (Δ -1.70). The tables rank every team's single-match result by points minus match xPts: the most negative are the robberies, the most positive the smash-and-grabs.
Biggest xG robberies (deserved far more)
| # | Team | Result | xG | xPts | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Switzerland | 1–1 v Qatar | 3.20–0.60 | 2.70 | -1.70 |
| 2 | Spain | 0–0 v Cape Verde | 2.10–0.20 | 2.62 | -1.62 |
| 3 | Turkiye | 0–2 v Australia | 1.36–1.18 | 1.49 | -1.49 |
| 4 | Haiti | 0–1 v Scotland | 1.05–1.05 | 1.35 | -1.35 |
| 5 | Uruguay | 1–1 v Saudi Arabia | 1.72–0.66 | 2.12 | -1.12 |
| 6 | Ecuador | 0–1 v Ivory Coast | 1.01–1.52 | 1.01 | -1.01 |
| 7 | Panama | 0–1 v Ghana | 0.75–1.31 | 0.93 | -0.93 |
| 8 | Paraguay | 1–4 v USA | 0.54–1.42 | 0.69 | -0.69 |
| 9 | Algeria | 0–3 v Argentina | 0.32–1.26 | 0.58 | -0.58 |
| 10 | Belgium | 1–1 v Egypt | 1.35–1.08 | 1.56 | -0.56 |
| 11 | Canada | 1–1 v Bosnia and Herzegovina | 1.23–0.96 | 1.56 | -0.56 |
| 12 | Iran | 2–2 v New Zealand | 1.50–1.24 | 1.55 | -0.55 |
| 13 | Senegal | 1–3 v France | 0.53–1.79 | 0.53 | -0.53 |
| 14 | Czechia | 1–2 v South Korea | 0.83–2.30 | 0.53 | -0.53 |
| 15 | DR Congo | 1–1 v Portugal | 0.87–0.65 | 1.51 | -0.51 |
| 16 | Jordan | 1–3 v Austria | 0.46–1.69 | 0.51 | -0.51 |
Most fortunate results (smash and grab)
| # | Team | Result | xG | xPts | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Australia | 2–0 v Turkiye | 1.18–1.36 | 1.24 | +1.76 |
| 2 | Scotland | 1–0 v Haiti | 1.05–1.05 | 1.35 | +1.65 |
| 3 | Ivory Coast | 1–0 v Ecuador | 1.52–1.01 | 1.73 | +1.27 |
| 4 | Ghana | 1–0 v Panama | 1.31–0.75 | 1.78 | +1.22 |
| 5 | USA | 4–1 v Paraguay | 1.42–0.54 | 2.04 | +0.96 |
| 6 | Argentina | 3–0 v Algeria | 1.26–0.32 | 2.12 | +0.88 |
| 7 | Sweden | 5–1 v Tunisia | 1.33–0.28 | 2.21 | +0.79 |
| 8 | Qatar | 1–1 v Switzerland | 0.60–3.20 | 0.21 | +0.79 |
| 9 | Cape Verde | 0–0 v Spain | 0.20–2.10 | 0.23 | +0.77 |
| 10 | Austria | 3–1 v Jordan | 1.69–0.46 | 2.26 | +0.74 |
| 11 | France | 3–1 v Senegal | 1.79–0.53 | 2.26 | +0.74 |
| 12 | South Korea | 2–1 v Czechia | 2.30–0.83 | 2.29 | +0.71 |
Unluckiest teams (whole tournament) · xG stat leaders · Daily recaps · The xG visualizer
Match-level luck = the points a team took from a game minus its expected points (xPts) for that match — an independent Poisson model on public post-match xG. Directional, not official.