Norway 1–4 France

The xG verdict

France edged a balanced game 1–4 (1.70–1.50 xG).

Quick answers

ResultWho won Norway vs France?
France won 4–1. The xG was Norway 1.70, France 1.50.
Better xGWho had the better xG in Norway vs France?
The xG was close to level (Norway 1.70, France 1.50), so France's 4–1 win was narrow rather than a major points-vs-xPts swing.
Fair resultWas Norway 1–4 France fair by xG?
Mostly. The winner was not clearly ahead on xG, but the chance gap was small enough that this was a close result rather than a robbery.
Biggest xG takeawayWhat was the biggest xG takeaway?
France took 3 points from 1.26 xPts (Δ +1.74), the biggest points-vs-chances swing in the match.
Ranking contextWas Norway 1–4 France a published FIFA ranking upset?
Not on the scoreboard, but the lower-ranked side had the stronger xG profile. Norway entered 28th of 48 in the World Cup field; France entered 3rd of 48. Norway lost after Norway 1–4 France despite leading xG 1.70–1.50.
Score1–4
Expected goals (xG)Norway 1.70 · France 1.50
Expected points (xPts)Norway 1.51 · France 1.26
StageGroup I
Published FIFA rankNorway FIFA #31 (28th of 48) · France FIFA #3 (3rd of 48)

Who had the better xG in Norway vs France?

By expected goals, Norway vs France was a near-even contest — Norway 1.70 xG, France 1.50. France took the points 4–1, but the underlying chances were close to level. In expected points, Norway earned 1.51 and France 1.26 from this game; the actual return was 0 and 3 (Δ -1.51 for Norway, +1.74 for France).

Was Norway lucky or unlucky?

Norway were wasteful in front of goal — just 1 from 1.70 xG, but punished at the back, shipping 4 from only 1.50 xGA faced. On balance their result return trailed the chances (Δ -1.51).

Was France lucky or unlucky?

France were clinical in front of goal — 4 goals from 1.50 xG, and well protected at the back, conceding 1 from 1.70 xGA faced. On balance a fortunate return — more than the chances merited (Δ +1.74).

What Norway 1–4 France means for Group I

Norway sit 2nd in Group I on 6 points (5.59 xPts, Δ +0.41); France sit 1st on 9 points (6.06 xPts, Δ +2.94). See the full Group I table →

26 June xG recap · Norway · France · xG robberies · stat leaders · ← All results