Which World Cup 2026 teams are over- and under-performing their xG?
Group stage complete: 72 group matches played, 48 of 48 teams with group results.
This World Cup 2026 xG luck dashboard ranks group-stage overperformers and underperformers by points vs xPts. Mexico are the biggest group-stage overperformers, banking 9 points on just 5.68 expected points (Δ +3.32). The table below includes only teams with a positive points-minus-xPts gap, so it stays focused on overperformance rather than duplicating the full standings table.
Quick answers
- Who is the biggest World Cup 2026 group-stage xG overperformer?
- Mexico are the biggest World Cup 2026 group-stage xG overperformers: 9 points from 5.68 xPts, a points-minus-xPts gap of +3.32.
- What does overperforming xPts mean?
- Overperforming xPts means a team has taken more actual points than its expected-points total from the chance quality in its matches.
- Is this table a World Cup prediction?
- No. This table is retrospective: it ranks actual group-stage points against group-stage expected points from post-match xG.
| # | Team | Grp | Pts | xPts | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mexico | A | 9 | 5.68 | +3.32 |
| 2 | France | I | 9 | 6.06 | +2.94 |
| 3 | Croatia | L | 6 | 3.23 | +2.77 |
| 4 | England | L | 7 | 4.35 | +2.65 |
| 5 | Paraguay | D | 4 | 1.88 | +2.12 |
| 6 | Argentina | J | 9 | 6.88 | +2.12 |
| 7 | Colombia | K | 7 | 5.45 | +1.55 |
| 8 | Egypt | G | 5 | 3.63 | +1.37 |
| 9 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | B | 4 | 2.64 | +1.36 |
| 10 | Ivory Coast | E | 6 | 4.69 | +1.31 |
| 11 | Morocco | C | 7 | 5.75 | +1.25 |
| 12 | USA | D | 6 | 4.96 | +1.04 |
| 13 | Netherlands | F | 7 | 6.01 | +0.99 |
| 14 | Switzerland | B | 7 | 6.30 | +0.70 |
| 15 | Saudi Arabia | H | 2 | 1.39 | +0.61 |
| 16 | Scotland | C | 3 | 2.44 | +0.56 |
| 17 | South Africa | A | 4 | 3.47 | +0.53 |
| 18 | Brazil | C | 7 | 6.50 | +0.50 |
| 19 | Australia | D | 4 | 3.51 | +0.49 |
| 20 | Germany | E | 6 | 5.57 | +0.43 |
| 21 | Norway | I | 6 | 5.59 | +0.41 |
| 22 | Sweden | F | 4 | 3.63 | +0.37 |
| 23 | Ghana | L | 4 | 3.66 | +0.34 |
| 24 | Portugal | K | 5 | 4.72 | +0.28 |
| 25 | Austria | J | 4 | 3.87 | +0.13 |
| 26 | Cape Verde | H | 3 | 2.93 | +0.07 |