Which World Cup 2026 teams are over- and under-performing their xG?
As of matchday 1: 16 matches played, 32 of 48 teams underway.
Australia are the biggest overperformers at the 2026 World Cup so far, banking 3 points on just 1.24 expected points (Δ +1.76). The table below ranks every team by points minus expected points — positive means clinical or lucky, negative means unlucky.
| # | Team | Grp | Pts | xPts | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Australia | D | 3 | 1.24 | +1.76 |
| 2 | Scotland | C | 3 | 1.35 | +1.65 |
| 3 | Ivory Coast | E | 3 | 1.73 | +1.27 |
| 4 | USA | D | 3 | 2.04 | +0.96 |
| 5 | Qatar | B | 1 | 0.21 | +0.79 |
| 6 | Sweden | F | 3 | 2.21 | +0.79 |
| 7 | Cape Verde | H | 1 | 0.23 | +0.77 |
| 8 | South Korea | A | 3 | 2.29 | +0.71 |
| 9 | Mexico | A | 3 | 2.47 | +0.53 |
| 10 | Saudi Arabia | H | 1 | 0.65 | +0.35 |
| 11 | Germany | E | 3 | 2.89 | +0.11 |
| 12 | Curacao | E | 0 | 0.07 | -0.07 |
| 13 | Japan | F | 1 | 1.13 | -0.13 |
| 14 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | B | 1 | 1.15 | -0.15 |
| 15 | Egypt | G | 1 | 1.17 | -0.17 |
| 16 | New Zealand | G | 1 | 1.20 | -0.20 |
| 17 | South Africa | A | 0 | 0.29 | -0.29 |
| 18 | Brazil | C | 1 | 1.29 | -0.29 |
| 19 | Morocco | C | 1 | 1.45 | -0.45 |
| 20 | Netherlands | F | 1 | 1.48 | -0.48 |
| 21 | Tunisia | F | 0 | 0.51 | -0.51 |
| 22 | Czechia | A | 0 | 0.53 | -0.53 |
| 23 | Iran | G | 1 | 1.55 | -0.55 |
| 24 | Canada | B | 1 | 1.56 | -0.56 |
| 25 | Belgium | G | 1 | 1.56 | -0.56 |
| 26 | Paraguay | D | 0 | 0.69 | -0.69 |
| 27 | Ecuador | E | 0 | 1.01 | -1.01 |
| 28 | Uruguay | H | 1 | 2.12 | -1.12 |
| 29 | Haiti | C | 0 | 1.35 | -1.35 |
| 30 | Turkiye | D | 0 | 1.49 | -1.49 |
| 31 | Spain | H | 1 | 2.62 | -1.62 |
| 32 | Switzerland | B | 1 | 2.70 | -1.70 |