How lucky or unlucky were South Africa in the World Cup 2026 group stage?

Group-stage totals: 4 points from 3.47 xPts (points luck +0.53) and 3 goals conceded from 3.38 xGA (defensive luck +0.38). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how South Africa's group-stage luck built game by game.

Where did South Africa finish in Group A?

South Africa finished second in Group A with 4 points from 3.47 group-stage xPts (Δ +0.53).

What are South Africa's group, knockout and total xG numbers?

South Africa have 2.61 group-stage xGF and 3.38 group-stage xGA, plus 0.14 knockout xGF and 1.38 knockout xGA. Total: 2.75 xGF, 4.76 xGA.

What was South Africa's best xG match?

South Africa's highest-xGF match was 1–1 vs Czechia: 1.38 xG for and 1.02 xG against.

South Africa at the 2026 World Cup

Eliminated

South Africa are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 73 against Canada. South Africa 0–1 Canada; South Africa 0.14–1.38 Canada xG.

South Africa had 2 goals from 2.61 xG (finishing luck -0.61) and 4 points from 3.47 xPts (points luck +0.53) in the World Cup 2026 group stage.

Next for South Africa

Knockout result

South Africa vs Canada

Match 73 (Round of 32) result page with score, match xG and advancement context.

Latest xG match

0–1 vs Canada

Knockout stage · xG 0.14-1.38 · eliminated

Group table

Group A finish

4 points from 3.47 group-stage xPts. Official group rank decides qualification.

Results

All scores with xG

Every finished match, scoreline, match xG and one-line verdict.

Quick answers

EliminatedAre South Africa eliminated from the World Cup 2026?: South Africa are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 73 against Canada. South Africa 0–1 Canada; South Africa 0.14–1.38 Canada xG.
Group-stage verdictHow lucky or unlucky were South Africa in the World Cup 2026 group stage?: Group-stage totals: 4 points from 3.47 xPts (points luck +0.53) and 3 goals conceded from 3.38 xGA (defensive luck +0.38). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how South Africa's group-stage luck built game by game.
Group finishWhere did South Africa finish in Group A?: South Africa finished second in Group A with 4 points from 3.47 group-stage xPts (Δ +0.53).
xG by stageWhat are South Africa's group, knockout and total xG numbers?: South Africa have 2.61 group-stage xGF and 3.38 group-stage xGA, plus 0.14 knockout xGF and 1.38 knockout xGA. Total: 2.75 xGF, 4.76 xGA.
Best xG matchWhat was South Africa's best xG match?: South Africa's highest-xGF match was 1–1 vs Czechia: 1.38 xG for and 1.02 xG against.

xG by stage

Stage	Matches	Goals	xGF / xGA	xGD	xPts	Scope
Group stage	3	2–3	2.61 / 3.38	-0.77	3.46	Official group-table scope
Knockout	1	0–1	0.14 / 1.38	-1.24	0.37	Match xPts is chance context only
Total	4	2–4	2.75 / 4.76	-2.01	3.83	All completed xG-backed matches

Knockout status

EliminatedAre South Africa eliminated from the World Cup 2026?: South Africa are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 73 against Canada. South Africa 0–1 Canada; South Africa 0.14–1.38 Canada xG. South Africa vs Canada xG guide/result.

Knockout receipts

0-1 vs CanadaKnockout stage · xG 0.14-1.38 · match xPts 0.37 · eliminated

Group-stage match receipts

0-2 vs MexicoxG 0.07-1.46 · xPts 0.29 · Δ -0.29
1-1 vs CzechiaxG 1.38-1.02 · xPts 1.62 · Δ -0.62
1-0 vs South KoreaxG 1.16-0.90 · xPts 1.55 · Δ +1.45

Featured story

Group A story

South Korea finished third despite 5.09 xPts

South Korea took 3 points from 5.09 xPts, while South Africa took the Canada bracket slot with 4 points from 3.47 xPts.

Schedule context

South Africa are -0.77 xGD through 3 xG matches against opponents averaging 24.7/48 in the World Cup field and FIFA #30.0 globally; trailed xG against a mid-ranked opponent field.

Group	Group A · 2nd in group
Knockout status	Eliminated Out after Match 73 vs Canada
Published FIFA rank	FIFA #54 · 36th of 48 World Cup teams
xG vs schedule	Avg opponent field rank 24.7 / 48 · Avg opponent FIFA #30.0 · trailed xG against a mid-ranked opponent field
Group-stage played / record	3 · 1W 1D 1L
Group-stage points	4
Group-stage expected points (xPts)	3.47
Group-stage Δ (Points − xPts)	+0.53
Group-stage goals for / against	2 / 3
Group-stage xG for / against	2.61 / 3.38
Group-stage finishing (Goals − xG)	-0.61
Group-stage defensive luck (xGA − GA)	+0.38

Where South Africa sit on the total xG luck quadrant

Where South Africa sit across all xG-backed matches so far — finishing luck (goals − xG) across, defensive luck (xGA − goals conceded) up; the crosshair is zero, exactly as the chances suggest. On the balance of play they are wasteful in attack but solid at the back.

See South Africa on the full interactive luck quadrant →

Best and worst group-stage xG matches

Best xG performance

South Africa 1–1 Czechia

South Africa had their strongest chance profile against Czechia, winning the xG battle 1.38–1.02.

Most unlucky result

South Africa vs Czechia

South Africa took 1 point from 1.62 xPts (Δ -0.62).

Most fortunate result

South Africa vs South Korea

South Africa took 3 points from 1.55 xPts (Δ +1.45).

Group-stage match by match

Group-stage match-by-match luck — points taken minus expected points (xPts) each game. Green = took more than the chances deserved, red = deserved more.

Date	Match	Score	Group xG	xPts	Δ
11 June	@ Mexico	0–2	0.07–1.46	0.29	-0.29
18 June	@ Czechia	1–1	1.38–1.02	1.62	-0.62
24 June	v South Korea	1–0	1.16–0.90	1.55	+1.45

Δ here is per group-stage match: the points South Africa took that game minus their expected points (xPts) for it. Negative = robbed, positive = fortunate.

Knockout match by match

Date	Match	Score	Knockout xG	Match xPts	Verdict
28 June	v Canada	0–1	0.14–1.38	0.37	Canada advanced with an xG edge (1.38–0.14 xG), winning 0–1.

Knockout rows are not added to group points or group-stage xPts. The score decides advancement; match xPts is chance-profile context.

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