Mexico 2–0 South Africa

The xG verdict

Mexico backed up their xG edge (1.46–0.07 xG), winning 2–0.

Quick answers

ResultWho won Mexico vs South Africa?
Mexico won 2–0. The xG was Mexico 1.46, South Africa 0.07.
Better xGWho had the better xG in Mexico vs South Africa?
Mexico had the better xG profile, creating the better chances 1.46–0.07 and winning 2–0.
Fair resultWas Mexico 2–0 South Africa fair by xG?
Yes. Mexico won both the scoreboard and the xG battle.
Biggest xG takeawayWhat was the biggest xG takeaway?
Mexico turned a clear xG edge (1.46–0.07) into the full three points, finishing with 2.47 xPts (Δ +0.53).
Ranking contextWas Mexico 2–0 South Africa a published FIFA ranking upset?
No. South Africa entered 40th of 48 in the World Cup field; Mexico entered 13th of 48. The higher-ranked side got the result and had the stronger xG profile, 1.46–0.07.
Score2–0
Expected goals (xG)Mexico 1.46 · South Africa 0.07
Expected points (xPts)Mexico 2.47 · South Africa 0.29
StageGroup A
Published FIFA rankMexico FIFA #14 (13th of 48) · South Africa FIFA #60 (40th of 48)

Who had the better xG in Mexico vs South Africa?

Mexico created the better chances — 1.46–0.07 xG, an edge of 1.39. And Mexico duly won 2–0, the result matching the run of chances. In expected points, Mexico earned 2.47 and South Africa 0.29 from this game; the actual return was 3 and 0 (Δ +0.53 for Mexico, -0.29 for South Africa).

Was Mexico lucky or unlucky?

Mexico were clinical in front of goal — 2 goals from 1.46 xG, and conceded about what their defending deserved (0 from 0.07 xGA). A result backed by the stronger chance profile on the day (Δ +0.53).

Was South Africa lucky or unlucky?

South Africa were about on script in attack — 0 from 0.07 xG, but punished at the back, shipping 2 from only 1.46 xGA faced. A fair return for the performance (Δ -0.29).

What Mexico 2–0 South Africa means for Group A

Mexico sit 1st in Group A on 9 points (5.68 xPts, Δ +3.32); South Africa sit 2nd on 4 points (3.47 xPts, Δ +0.53). See the full Group A table →

11 June xG recap · Mexico · South Africa · xG robberies · stat leaders · ← All results