How lucky or unlucky were Mexico in the World Cup 2026 group stage?

Group-stage totals: 9 points from 5.68 xPts (points luck +3.32) and 0 goals conceded from 1.51 xGA (defensive luck +1.51). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Mexico's group-stage luck built game by game.

Where did Mexico finish in Group A?

Mexico finished first in Group A with 9 points from 5.68 group-stage xPts (Δ +3.32).

What are Mexico's group, knockout and total xG numbers?

Mexico have 3.73 group-stage xGF and 1.51 group-stage xGA, plus 2.93 knockout xGF and 2.36 knockout xGA. Total: 6.66 xGF, 3.87 xGA.

What was Mexico's best xG match?

Mexico's highest-xGF match was 2–3 vs England: 1.88 xG for and 1.61 xG against.

Mexico at the 2026 World Cup

Eliminated

Mexico are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 92 against England. Mexico 2–3 England; Mexico 1.88–1.61 England xG.

Mexico have 9 points from 5.68 xPts, the biggest points-vs-xPts overperformance in the World Cup 2026 group stage.

Next for Mexico

Knockout result

Mexico vs England

Match 92 (Round of 16) result page with score, match xG and advancement context.

Latest xG match

2–3 vs England

Knockout stage · xG 1.88-1.61 · eliminated

Group table

Group A finish

9 points from 5.68 group-stage xPts. Official group rank decides qualification.

Results

All scores with xG

Every finished match, scoreline, match xG and one-line verdict.

Quick answers

EliminatedAre Mexico eliminated from the World Cup 2026?: Mexico are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 92 against England. Mexico 2–3 England; Mexico 1.88–1.61 England xG.
Riding their luckHow lucky or unlucky were Mexico in the World Cup 2026 group stage?: Group-stage totals: 9 points from 5.68 xPts (points luck +3.32) and 0 goals conceded from 1.51 xGA (defensive luck +1.51). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Mexico's group-stage luck built game by game.
Group finishWhere did Mexico finish in Group A?: Mexico finished first in Group A with 9 points from 5.68 group-stage xPts (Δ +3.32).
xG by stageWhat are Mexico's group, knockout and total xG numbers?: Mexico have 3.73 group-stage xGF and 1.51 group-stage xGA, plus 2.93 knockout xGF and 2.36 knockout xGA. Total: 6.66 xGF, 3.87 xGA.
Best xG matchWhat was Mexico's best xG match?: Mexico's highest-xGF match was 2–3 vs England: 1.88 xG for and 1.61 xG against.

xG by stage

Stage	Matches	Goals	xGF / xGA	xGD	xPts	Scope
Group stage	3	6–0	3.73 / 1.51	+2.22	5.68	Official group-table scope
Knockout	2	4–3	2.93 / 2.36	+0.57	3.14	Match xPts is chance context only
Total	5	10–3	6.66 / 3.87	+2.79	8.82	All completed xG-backed matches

Knockout status

EliminatedAre Mexico eliminated from the World Cup 2026?: Mexico are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 92 against England. Mexico 2–3 England; Mexico 1.88–1.61 England xG. Mexico vs England xG guide/result.

Knockout receipts

2-0 vs EcuadorKnockout stage · xG 1.05-0.75 · match xPts 1.58 · advanced
2-3 vs EnglandKnockout stage · xG 1.88-1.61 · match xPts 1.56 · eliminated

Group-stage match receipts

2-0 vs South AfricaxG 1.46-0.07 · xPts 2.47 · Δ +0.53
1-0 vs South KoreaxG 0.53-0.91 · xPts 0.98 · Δ +2.02
3-0 vs CzechiaxG 1.74-0.53 · xPts 2.23 · Δ +0.77

Featured story

UPDATE:

Mexico finished 10-3 on goals from 6.66-3.87 xG

England ended the clean-sheet run 3-2; Mexico still finished 3.34 above xG and 0.87 below xGA.

Schedule context

Mexico are +2.22 xGD through 3 xG matches against opponents averaging 33.3/48 in the World Cup field and FIFA #44.7 globally; led xG against a lighter opponent field.

Group	Group A · 1st in group
Knockout status	Eliminated Out after Match 92 vs England
Published FIFA rank	FIFA #10 · 10th of 48 World Cup teams
xG vs schedule	Avg opponent field rank 33.3 / 48 · Avg opponent FIFA #44.7 · led xG against a lighter opponent field
Group-stage played / record	3 · 3W 0D 0L
Group-stage points	9
Group-stage expected points (xPts)	5.68
Group-stage Δ (Points − xPts)	+3.32
Group-stage goals for / against	6 / 0
Group-stage xG for / against	3.73 / 1.51
Group-stage finishing (Goals − xG)	+2.27
Group-stage defensive luck (xGA − GA)	+1.51

Where Mexico sit on the total xG luck quadrant

Where Mexico sit across all xG-backed matches so far — finishing luck (goals − xG) across, defensive luck (xGA − goals conceded) up; the crosshair is zero, exactly as the chances suggest. On the balance of play they are riding their luck.

See Mexico on the full interactive luck quadrant →

Best and worst group-stage xG matches

Best xG performance

Mexico 2–0 South Africa

Mexico had their strongest chance profile against South Africa, winning the xG battle 1.46–0.07.

Most fortunate result

Mexico vs South Korea

Mexico took 3 points from 0.98 xPts (Δ +2.02).

Group-stage match by match

Group-stage match-by-match luck — points taken minus expected points (xPts) each game. Green = took more than the chances deserved, red = deserved more.

Date	Match	Score	Group xG	xPts	Δ
11 June	v South Africa	2–0	1.46–0.07	2.47	+0.53
18 June	v South Korea	1–0	0.53–0.91	0.98	+2.02
24 June	@ Czechia	3–0	1.74–0.53	2.23	+0.77

Δ here is per group-stage match: the points Mexico took that game minus their expected points (xPts) for it. Negative = robbed, positive = fortunate.

Knockout match by match

Date	Match	Score	Knockout xG	Match xPts	Verdict
30 June	v Ecuador	2–0	1.05–0.75	1.58	Mexico advanced from a balanced knockout game 2–0 (1.05–0.75 xG).
5 July	v England	2–3	1.88–1.61	1.56	England advanced from a balanced knockout game 2–3 (1.88–1.61 xG).

Knockout rows are not added to group points or group-stage xPts. The score decides advancement; match xPts is chance-profile context.

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