xG 2.61 – 1.05 · xPts 2.29 – 0.55 · Knockout stage
Brazil had the stronger chance profile (2.61–1.05 xG) but were knocked out 1–2; Norway advanced against the xG run.
World Cup 2026 xG recap: 5 July
Latest available post-match xG · updated 6 July 2026, 06:14 ET · 2 matches, 8 goals, 7.15 total xG. Not live.
2 matches on 5 July, read through expected goals — the day's robberies, smash-and-grabs and standout performances below.
xG stories of the day
Most fortunate result
Norway advanced from a 2–1 while out-chanced 1.05–2.61 — clinical, or fortunate (Δ +2.45). xG breakdown →
Game of the day
Mexico 2–3 England was the day's most open contest by xG — 1.88–1.61, both ends busy. xG breakdown →
Every 5 July match
xG 1.88 – 1.61 · xPts 1.56 – 1.22 · Knockout stage
England advanced from a balanced knockout game 2–3 (1.88–1.61 xG).
More: all daily recaps · all results · standings & expected points · unluckiest teams · the xG visualizer
Luck is measured per match: actual points minus expected points (xPts), an independent Poisson model on public post-match xG. Figures may differ from other public xG sources. Directional, not official — especially early in the tournament.