How lucky or unlucky were Brazil in the World Cup 2026 group stage?

Group-stage totals: 7 points from 6.50 xPts (points luck +0.50) and 1 goal conceded from 2.64 xGA (defensive luck +1.64). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Brazil's group-stage luck built game by game.

Where did Brazil finish in Group C?

Brazil finished first in Group C with 7 points from 6.50 group-stage xPts (Δ +0.50).

What are Brazil's group, knockout and total xG numbers?

Brazil have 7.34 group-stage xGF and 2.64 group-stage xGA, plus 2.61 knockout xGF and 1.05 knockout xGA. Total: 9.95 xGF, 3.69 xGA.

What was Brazil's best xG match?

Brazil's highest-xGF match was 3–0 vs Scotland: 4.33 xG for and 1.04 xG against.

Brazil at the 2026 World Cup

Still alive

Brazil are still alive in the World Cup 2026 knockout bracket. Their next confirmed slot is Match 76 (Round of 32) against Japan.

Brazil have a strong xG difference (+4.70 xGD), with the group-stage chances ahead of the scoreboard story.

Next for Brazil

Next knockout guide

Brazil vs Japan

Match 76 (Round of 32) with total xG, group-stage baseline and knockout receipts. Not a prediction.

Latest xG match

1–2 vs Norway

Knockout stage · xG 2.61-1.05 · eliminated

Group table

Group C finish

7 points from 6.50 group-stage xPts. Official group rank decides qualification.

Results

All scores with xG

Every finished match, scoreline, match xG and one-line verdict.

Quick answers

Still aliveAre Brazil still in the World Cup 2026?: Brazil are still alive in the World Cup 2026 knockout bracket. Their next confirmed slot is Match 76 (Round of 32) against Japan.
Quietly dominantHow lucky or unlucky were Brazil in the World Cup 2026 group stage?: Group-stage totals: 7 points from 6.50 xPts (points luck +0.50) and 1 goal conceded from 2.64 xGA (defensive luck +1.64). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Brazil's group-stage luck built game by game.
Group finishWhere did Brazil finish in Group C?: Brazil finished first in Group C with 7 points from 6.50 group-stage xPts (Δ +0.50).
xG by stageWhat are Brazil's group, knockout and total xG numbers?: Brazil have 7.34 group-stage xGF and 2.64 group-stage xGA, plus 2.61 knockout xGF and 1.05 knockout xGA. Total: 9.95 xGF, 3.69 xGA.
Best xG matchWhat was Brazil's best xG match?: Brazil's highest-xGF match was 3–0 vs Scotland: 4.33 xG for and 1.04 xG against.

xG by stage

Stage	Matches	Goals	xGF / xGA	xGD	xPts	Scope
Group stage	3	7–1	7.34 / 2.64	+4.70	6.49	Official group-table scope
Knockout	1	1–2	2.61 / 1.05	+1.56	2.29	Match xPts is chance context only
Total	4	8–3	9.95 / 3.69	+6.26	8.78	All completed xG-backed matches

Knockout status

Still aliveAre Brazil still in the World Cup 2026?: Brazil are still alive in the World Cup 2026 knockout bracket. Their next confirmed slot is Match 76 (Round of 32) against Japan. Brazil vs Japan xG guide/result.

Knockout receipts

1-2 vs NorwayKnockout stage · xG 2.61-1.05 · match xPts 2.29 · eliminated

Group-stage match receipts

1-1 vs MoroccoxG 1.26-1.37 · xPts 1.29 · Δ -0.29
3-0 vs HaitixG 1.75-0.23 · xPts 2.47 · Δ +0.53
3-0 vs ScotlandxG 4.33-1.04 · xPts 2.73 · Δ +0.27

Featured story

BREAKING:

Brazil eliminated despite 2.61-1.05 xG edge

Norway beat Brazil 2-1; Brazil had the stronger chance profile, but Norway advanced from a lower-xG night.

Schedule context

Brazil are +4.70 xGD through 3 xG matches against opponents averaging 29.0/48 in the World Cup field and FIFA #44.7 globally; led xG against a mid-ranked opponent field.

Group	Group C · 1st in group
Knockout status	Still alive Next: Match 76 vs Japan
Published FIFA rank	FIFA #6 · 6th of 48 World Cup teams
xG vs schedule	Avg opponent field rank 29.0 / 48 · Avg opponent FIFA #44.7 · led xG against a mid-ranked opponent field
Group-stage played / record	3 · 2W 1D 0L
Group-stage points	7
Group-stage expected points (xPts)	6.50
Group-stage Δ (Points − xPts)	+0.50
Group-stage goals for / against	7 / 1
Group-stage xG for / against	7.34 / 2.64
Group-stage finishing (Goals − xG)	-0.34
Group-stage defensive luck (xGA − GA)	+1.64

Where Brazil sit on the total xG luck quadrant

Where Brazil sit across all xG-backed matches so far — finishing luck (goals − xG) across, defensive luck (xGA − goals conceded) up; the crosshair is zero, exactly as the chances suggest. On the balance of play they are wasteful in attack but solid at the back.

See Brazil on the full interactive luck quadrant →

Best and worst group-stage xG matches

Best xG performance

Brazil 3–0 Scotland

Brazil had their strongest chance profile against Scotland, winning the xG battle 4.33–1.04.

Most fortunate result

Brazil vs Haiti

Brazil took 3 points from 2.47 xPts (Δ +0.53).

Group-stage match by match

Group-stage match-by-match luck — points taken minus expected points (xPts) each game. Green = took more than the chances deserved, red = deserved more.

Date	Match	Score	Group xG	xPts	Δ
13 June	v Morocco	1–1	1.26–1.37	1.29	-0.29
19 June	v Haiti	3–0	1.75–0.23	2.47	+0.53
24 June	@ Scotland	3–0	4.33–1.04	2.73	+0.27

Δ here is per group-stage match: the points Brazil took that game minus their expected points (xPts) for it. Negative = robbed, positive = fortunate.

Knockout match by match

Date	Match	Score	Knockout xG	Match xPts	Verdict
5 July	v Norway	1–2	2.61–1.05	2.29	Brazil had the stronger chance profile (2.61–1.05 xG) but were knocked out 1–2; Norway advanced against the xG run.

Knockout rows are not added to group points or group-stage xPts. The score decides advancement; match xPts is chance-profile context.

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