Scotland 0–3 Brazil

The xG verdict

Brazil backed up their xG edge (4.33–1.04 xG), winning 0–3.

Quick answers

ResultWho won Scotland vs Brazil?
Brazil won 3–0. The xG was Scotland 1.04, Brazil 4.33.
Better xGWho had the better xG in Scotland vs Brazil?
Brazil had the better xG profile, creating the better chances 4.33–1.04 and winning 3–0.
Fair resultWas Scotland 0–3 Brazil fair by xG?
Yes. Brazil won both the scoreboard and the xG battle.
Biggest xG takeawayWhat was the biggest xG takeaway?
Brazil turned a clear xG edge (4.33–1.04) into the full three points, finishing with 2.73 xPts (Δ +0.27).
Ranking contextWas Scotland 0–3 Brazil a published FIFA ranking upset?
No. Scotland entered 34th of 48 in the World Cup field; Brazil entered 6th of 48. The higher-ranked side got the result and had the stronger xG profile, 4.33–1.04.
Score0–3
Expected goals (xG)Scotland 1.04 · Brazil 4.33
Expected points (xPts)Scotland 0.19 · Brazil 2.73
StageGroup C
Published FIFA rankScotland FIFA #42 (34th of 48) · Brazil FIFA #6 (6th of 48)

Who had the better xG in Scotland vs Brazil?

Brazil created the better chances — 4.33–1.04 xG, an edge of 3.29. And Brazil duly won 3–0, the result matching the run of chances. In expected points, Scotland earned 0.19 and Brazil 2.73 from this game; the actual return was 0 and 3 (Δ -0.19 for Scotland, +0.27 for Brazil).

Was Scotland lucky or unlucky?

Scotland were wasteful in front of goal — just 0 from 1.04 xG, and well protected at the back, conceding 3 from 4.33 xGA faced. A fair return for the performance (Δ -0.19).

Was Brazil lucky or unlucky?

Brazil were wasteful in front of goal — just 3 from 4.33 xG, and well protected at the back, conceding 0 from 1.04 xGA faced. A fair return for the performance (Δ +0.27).

What Scotland 0–3 Brazil means for Group C

Scotland sit 3rd in Group C on 3 points (2.44 xPts, Δ +0.56); Brazil sit 1st on 7 points (6.50 xPts, Δ +0.50). See the full Group C table →

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