How lucky or unlucky were Scotland in the World Cup 2026 group stage?

Group-stage totals: 3 points from 2.44 xPts (points luck +0.56) and 4 goals conceded from 6.37 xGA (defensive luck +2.37). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Scotland's group-stage luck built game by game.

What are Scotland's group, knockout and total xG numbers?

Scotland have 2.60 group-stage xGF and 6.37 group-stage xGA. No knockout xG is recorded for them yet.

What was Scotland's best xG match?

Scotland's highest-xGF match was 1–0 vs Haiti: 1.05 xG for and 1.05 xG against.

Scotland at the 2026 World Cup

Group exit

Scotland did not qualify for the World Cup 2026 knockout stage. Scotland finished third in Group C with 3 points from 2.44 group-stage xPts (Δ +0.56).

Scotland had 1 goal from 2.60 xG (finishing luck -1.60) and 3 points from 2.44 xPts (points luck +0.56) in the World Cup 2026 group stage.

Next for Scotland

Latest xG match

0–3 vs Brazil

Group C · xG 1.04-4.33

Group table

Group C finish

3 points from 2.44 group-stage xPts. Official group rank decides qualification.

Results

All scores with xG

Every finished match, scoreline, match xG and one-line verdict.

Quick answers

Group exitDid Scotland qualify for the World Cup 2026 knockouts?: Scotland did not qualify for the World Cup 2026 knockout stage. Scotland finished third in Group C with 3 points from 2.44 group-stage xPts (Δ +0.56).
Group-stage verdictHow lucky or unlucky were Scotland in the World Cup 2026 group stage?: Group-stage totals: 3 points from 2.44 xPts (points luck +0.56) and 4 goals conceded from 6.37 xGA (defensive luck +2.37). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Scotland's group-stage luck built game by game.
Group finishWhere did Scotland finish in Group C?: Scotland finished third in Group C with 3 points from 2.44 group-stage xPts (Δ +0.56).
xG by stageWhat are Scotland's group, knockout and total xG numbers?: Scotland have 2.60 group-stage xGF and 6.37 group-stage xGA. No knockout xG is recorded for them yet.
Best xG matchWhat was Scotland's best xG match?: Scotland's highest-xGF match was 1–0 vs Haiti: 1.05 xG for and 1.05 xG against.

xG by stage

Stage	Matches	Goals	xGF / xGA	xGD	xPts	Scope
Group stage	3	1–4	2.60 / 6.37	-3.77	2.45	Official group-table scope
Total	3	1–4	2.60 / 6.37	-3.77	2.45	All completed xG-backed matches

Group-stage match receipts

1-0 vs HaitixG 1.05-1.05 · xPts 1.35 · Δ +1.65
0-1 vs MoroccoxG 0.51-0.99 · xPts 0.91 · Δ -0.91
0-3 vs BrazilxG 1.04-4.33 · xPts 0.19 · Δ -0.19

Schedule context

Scotland are -3.77 xGD through 3 xG matches against opponents averaging 19.7/48 in the World Cup field and FIFA #33.0 globally; trailed xG against a strong opponent field.

Group	Group C · 3rd in group
Knockout status	Group exit Group-stage exit
Published FIFA rank	FIFA #42 · 33rd of 48 World Cup teams
xG vs schedule	Avg opponent field rank 19.7 / 48 · Avg opponent FIFA #33.0 · trailed xG against a strong opponent field
Group-stage played / record	3 · 1W 0D 2L
Group-stage points	3
Group-stage expected points (xPts)	2.44
Group-stage Δ (Points − xPts)	+0.56
Group-stage goals for / against	1 / 4
Group-stage xG for / against	2.60 / 6.37
Group-stage finishing (Goals − xG)	-1.60
Group-stage defensive luck (xGA − GA)	+2.37

Where Scotland sit on the total xG luck quadrant

Where Scotland sit across all xG-backed matches so far — finishing luck (goals − xG) across, defensive luck (xGA − goals conceded) up; the crosshair is zero, exactly as the chances suggest. On the balance of play they are wasteful in attack but solid at the back.

See Scotland on the full interactive luck quadrant →

Best and worst group-stage xG matches

Best xG performance

Scotland 1–0 Haiti

Scotland had their strongest chance profile against Haiti, winning the xG battle 1.05–1.05.

Most unlucky result

Scotland vs Morocco

Scotland took 0 points from 0.91 xPts (Δ -0.91).

Most fortunate result

Scotland vs Haiti

Scotland took 3 points from 1.35 xPts (Δ +1.65).

Group-stage match by match

Group-stage match-by-match luck — points taken minus expected points (xPts) each game. Green = took more than the chances deserved, red = deserved more.

Date	Match	Score	Group xG	xPts	Δ
13 June	@ Haiti	1–0	1.05–1.05	1.35	+1.65
19 June	v Morocco	0–1	0.51–0.99	0.91	-0.91
24 June	v Brazil	0–3	1.04–4.33	0.19	-0.19

Δ here is per group-stage match: the points Scotland took that game minus their expected points (xPts) for it. Negative = robbed, positive = fortunate.

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