Haiti 0–1 Scotland

The xG verdict

Scotland edged a balanced game 0–1 (1.05–1.05 xG).

Quick answers

ResultWho won Haiti vs Scotland?
Scotland won 1–0. The xG was Haiti 1.05, Scotland 1.05.
Better xGWho had the better xG in Haiti vs Scotland?
The xG was close to level (Haiti 1.05, Scotland 1.05), so Scotland's 1–0 win was narrow rather than a major points-vs-xPts swing.
Fair resultWas Haiti 0–1 Scotland fair by xG?
Mostly. The winner was not clearly ahead on xG, but the chance gap was small enough that this was a close result rather than a robbery.
Biggest xG takeawayWhat was the biggest xG takeaway?
Scotland took 3 points from 1.35 xPts (Δ +1.65), the biggest points-vs-chances swing in the match.
Ranking contextWas Haiti 0–1 Scotland a published FIFA ranking upset?
No. Haiti entered 47th of 48 in the World Cup field; Scotland entered 34th of 48. The higher-ranked side got the result and had the stronger xG profile, 1.05–1.05.
Score0–1
Expected goals (xG)Haiti 1.05 · Scotland 1.05
Expected points (xPts)Haiti 1.35 · Scotland 1.35
StageGroup C
Published FIFA rankHaiti FIFA #83 (47th of 48) · Scotland FIFA #42 (34th of 48)

Who had the better xG in Haiti vs Scotland?

By expected goals, Haiti vs Scotland was a near-even contest — Haiti 1.05 xG, Scotland 1.05. Scotland took the points 1–0, but the underlying chances were close to level. In expected points, Haiti earned 1.35 and Scotland 1.35 from this game; the actual return was 0 and 3 (Δ -1.35 for Haiti, +1.65 for Scotland).

Was Haiti lucky or unlucky?

Haiti were wasteful in front of goal — just 0 from 1.05 xG, and conceded about what their defending deserved (1 from 1.05 xGA). On balance their result return trailed the chances (Δ -1.35).

Was Scotland lucky or unlucky?

Scotland were about on script in attack — 1 from 1.05 xG, and well protected at the back, conceding 0 from 1.05 xGA faced. A result backed by the stronger chance profile on the day (Δ +1.65).

What Haiti 0–1 Scotland means for Group C

Haiti sit 4th in Group C on 0 points (2.01 xPts, Δ -2.01); Scotland sit 3rd on 3 points (2.44 xPts, Δ +0.56). See the full Group C table →

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