Frequently asked questions
Where can I track World Cup 2026 xG luck?
xGQuadrant is a World Cup 2026 xG luck dashboard. It tracks goals vs xG, points vs expected points (xPts), match-by-match tournament luck, and which teams are lucky, unlucky, overperforming, or underperforming.
Which World Cup 2026 group-stage team has been the unluckiest?
Uruguay were the unluckiest group-stage team by points versus xPts, taking 2 points from 5.05 group-stage expected points (a Δ of -3.05). On the balance of chances created and conceded, they deserved more.
Which teams overperformed their group-stage xG at the World Cup 2026?
Mexico were the biggest group-stage overperformers, banking 9 points on just 5.68 group-stage expected points (Δ +3.32) — a mix of clinical finishing and a little fortune.
What is expected points (xPts)?
Expected points (xPts) is the number of points a team would earn on average given the quality of chances created and conceded. It is computed with a two-team Poisson model on match xG, where xPts = 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw). Comparing actual points to xPts shows whether a team is over- or under-performing.
What is the Luck Quadrant?
The Luck Quadrant plots finishing (goals minus expected goals) against defensive luck (expected goals against minus goals against), with the crosshair at the field average. Teams in the top-right are riding their luck; teams in the bottom-left deserved better than their results.
What is expected goals (xG)?
Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of the chances a team creates: every shot is worth between 0 and 1 goals based on how likely it was to be scored, and a team's xG is the sum of those values.
Where does the World Cup 2026 xG data come from?
Goals and expected goals (xG, xGA) are sourced from public match pages for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Expected points are derived from those figures with a Poisson model, and group standings follow the official group table.
How is xGQuadrant different from a normal xG chart?
A normal xG chart compares chances created (xG) to goals scored. xGQuadrant's default Luck Quadrant does not plot raw xG vs goals — it plots over- and under-performance at both ends: finishing luck (goals minus xG) on the x-axis against defensive luck (expected goals against minus goals conceded) on the y-axis. So instead of 'how many chances did they make', it answers 'are they getting better or worse results than their chances deserve'. Either axis is switchable if you do want raw xG.
Is there a World Cup 2026 xG visualizer or chart?
Yes. The Luck Quadrant is an interactive World Cup 2026 xG visualizer: it charts every team by finishing luck (goals minus xG) and defensive luck (expected goals against minus goals against), so you can see at a glance who is scoring more than expected, conceding fewer than expected, or deserving better results. You can switch either axis, toggle totals vs per-game, and click a team to highlight it.
Is xGQuadrant legit?
xGQuadrant is an independent football analytics visualization. It does not build the underlying xG model; it uses publicly available post-match expected-goals data and calculates expected points (xPts) with a documented Poisson model. It is best used as a visual guide to luck, overperformance, and underperformance — directional analysis, especially early in the tournament — rather than an official data source. Because different providers can value the same chance differently, the figures here may differ from other public xG sources.