South Africa vs Canada
Canada advanced
South Africa 0–1 Canada
Match xG: South Africa 0.14 · Canada 1.38
Canada advanced with an xG edge (1.38–0.14 xG), winning 0–1.
Latest available post-match xG · updated 2 July 2026, 02:56 ET. Not predictions.
Confirmed Round of 32 pages from the group-stage numbers: xGF, xGA, xPts, actual points and points-vs-xPts luck. Once a knockout match has post-match xG, that same guide becomes the actual advancement and xG verdict page, with match xPts used only as chance context.
Canada advanced
South Africa 0–1 Canada
Match xG: South Africa 0.14 · Canada 1.38
Canada advanced with an xG edge (1.38–0.14 xG), winning 0–1.
Paraguay advanced
Germany 1–1 (3–4 pens) Paraguay
Match xG: Germany 1.57 · Paraguay 0.35
Germany had the stronger chance profile (1.57–0.35 xG) but were knocked out 1–1 (3–4 pens); Paraguay advanced against the xG run.
Morocco advanced
Netherlands 1–1 (2–3 pens) Morocco
Match xG: Netherlands 0.24 · Morocco 1.38
Morocco created far more (1.38–0.24 xG), and Morocco advanced on penalties after 1–1 (2–3 pens).
Shootout story Morocco advanced on penalties with a 1.38-0.24 xG edge
Brazil advanced
Brazil 2–1 Japan
Match xG: Brazil 2.07 · Japan 0.33
Brazil advanced with an xG edge (2.07–0.33 xG), winning 2–1.
France advanced
France 3–0 Sweden
Match xG: France 3.24 · Sweden 0.70
France advanced with an xG edge (3.24–0.70 xG), winning 3–0.
Norway advanced
Ivory Coast 1–2 Norway
Match xG: Ivory Coast 1.49 · Norway 1.90
Norway advanced from a balanced knockout game 1–2 (1.49–1.90 xG).
Mexico advanced
Mexico 2–0 Ecuador
Match xG: Mexico 1.05 · Ecuador 0.75
Mexico advanced from a balanced knockout game 2–0 (1.05–0.75 xG).
England advanced
England 2–1 DR Congo
Match xG: England 2.16 · DR Congo 0.77
England advanced with an xG edge (2.16–0.77 xG), winning 2–1.
USA advanced
USA 2–0 Bosnia and Herzegovina
Match xG: USA 0.88 · Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.25
USA advanced from a balanced knockout game 2–0 (0.88–0.25 xG).
Belgium advanced
Belgium 3–2 Senegal
Match xG: Belgium 1.74 · Senegal 3.58
Senegal had the stronger chance profile (3.58–1.74 xG) but were knocked out 3–2; Belgium advanced against the xG run.
BREAKING: Belgium advanced despite Senegal's 3.58-1.74 xG edge
Portugal reached this slot as second in Group K; Croatia as second in Group L.
Portugal (5 pts, 4.72 xPts, xGD +1.38) vs Croatia (6 pts, 3.48 xPts, xGD -1.62).
Spain reached this slot as first in Group H; Austria as second in Group J.
Spain (7 pts, 7.27 xPts, xGD +4.72) vs Austria (4 pts, 3.88 xPts, xGD -0.78).
Switzerland reached this slot as first in Group B; Algeria as third in Group J.
Switzerland (7 pts, 6.30 xPts, xGD +3.88) vs Algeria (4 pts, 4.31 xPts, xGD +0.50).
Argentina reached this slot as first in Group J; Cape Verde as second in Group H.
Argentina (9 pts, 6.88 xPts, xGD +4.14) vs Cape Verde (3 pts, 2.94 xPts, xGD -2.34).
Colombia reached this slot as first in Group K; Ghana as third in Group L.
Colombia (7 pts, 5.45 xPts, xGD +1.83) vs Ghana (4 pts, 3.65 xPts, xGD -0.45).
Australia reached this slot as second in Group D; Egypt as second in Group G.
Australia (4 pts, 3.52 xPts, xGD -0.60) vs Egypt (5 pts, 3.63 xPts, xGD -0.77).
More context: full bracket · results and xG · group standings.