- Pts
- 6
- xPts
- 5.58
- Δ
- +0.42
- xGF
- 6.76
- xGA
- 2.90
- xGD
- +3.86
World Cup 2026 Round of 32 · Match 74 · latest available post-match xG updated 2 July 2026, 02:56 ET
Germany 1–1 (3–4 pens) Paraguay xG: World Cup 2026 Round of 32 result
Match 74 has a post-match xG result: Germany 1–1 (3–4 pens) Paraguay. The page now leads with actual advancement and the knockout xG verdict; match xPts is supporting chance context, with the original group-stage form kept below.
Paraguay advanced from Match 74
Germany had the stronger chance profile (1.57–0.35 xG) but were knocked out 1–1 (3–4 pens); Paraguay advanced against the xG run.
- Score
- 1–1 (3–4 pens)
- xG
- 1.57–0.35
- Match xPts
- 2.29–0.48
Full match page: Germany 1–1 (3–4 pens) Paraguay
Did Paraguay deserve to beat Germany by xG?
The bracket result stands because Paraguay advanced 1–1 (4–3 pens), but the xG case was stronger for Germany, who led the match xG 1.57–0.35. By chances, Paraguay advanced against the xG profile.
Germany eliminated despite 1.57-0.35 xG edge: Paraguay advanced after 1–1 (3–4 pens); Germany had the stronger chance profile, but the shootout swung the bracket.
Quick answers
- Who won Germany vs Paraguay at the World Cup 2026?
- Paraguay advanced on penalties against Germany in Match 74. The score was Germany 1–1 (3–4 pens) Paraguay; the xG was Germany 1.57 · Paraguay 0.35.
- Did Paraguay deserve to beat Germany by xG?
- The bracket result stands because Paraguay advanced 1–1 (4–3 pens), but the xG case was stronger for Germany, who led the match xG 1.57–0.35. By chances, Paraguay advanced against the xG profile.
- What was the xG in Germany vs Paraguay?
- Germany 1.57 · Paraguay 0.35. Match xPts, used here as chance context rather than bracket points, were Germany 2.29 and Paraguay 0.48.
- Was Germany 1–1 (3–4 pens) Paraguay fair by xG?
- Germany had the stronger chance profile (1.57–0.35 xG) but were knocked out 1–1 (3–4 pens); Paraguay advanced against the xG run.
Group-stage xG form
- Pts
- 4
- xPts
- 1.88
- Δ
- +2.12
- xGF
- 1.10
- xGA
- 4.14
- xGD
- -3.04
How they got here
Germany reached this slot as first in Group E with 6 pts, 5.58 xPts, xGF 6.76, xGA 2.90, Δ +0.42. Paraguay reached this slot as third in Group D with 4 pts, 1.88 xPts, xGF 1.10, xGA 4.14, Δ +2.12.
The knockout score decides advancement. The xG numbers describe the match chance profile and the group-stage form each side brought into the tie; match xPts is context only.
More context: World Cup 2026 bracket · results and xG · Germany team page · Paraguay team page.