How lucky or unlucky were Paraguay in the World Cup 2026 group stage?

Group-stage totals: 4 points from 1.88 xPts (points luck +2.12) and 4 goals conceded from 4.14 xGA (defensive luck +0.14). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Paraguay's group-stage luck built game by game.

Where did Paraguay finish in Group D?

Paraguay finished third in Group D with 4 points from 1.88 group-stage xPts (Δ +2.12).

What are Paraguay's group, knockout and total xG numbers?

Paraguay have 1.10 group-stage xGF and 4.14 group-stage xGA, plus 0.48 knockout xGF and 3.02 knockout xGA. Total: 1.58 xGF, 7.16 xGA.

What was Paraguay's best xG match?

Paraguay's highest-xGF match was 1–4 vs USA: 0.54 xG for and 1.42 xG against.

Paraguay at the 2026 World Cup

Eliminated

Paraguay are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 90 against France. Paraguay 0–1 France; Paraguay 0.13–1.45 France xG.

Paraguay have 4 points from 1.88 xPts, with group-stage results running ahead of the chances.

Next for Paraguay

Knockout result

Paraguay vs France

Match 90 (Round of 16) result page with score, match xG and advancement context.

Latest xG match

0–1 vs France

Knockout stage · xG 0.13-1.45 · eliminated

Group table

Group D finish

4 points from 1.88 group-stage xPts. Official group rank decides qualification.

Results

All scores with xG

Every finished match, scoreline, match xG and one-line verdict.

Quick answers

EliminatedAre Paraguay eliminated from the World Cup 2026?: Paraguay are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 90 against France. Paraguay 0–1 France; Paraguay 0.13–1.45 France xG.
Riding their luckHow lucky or unlucky were Paraguay in the World Cup 2026 group stage?: Group-stage totals: 4 points from 1.88 xPts (points luck +2.12) and 4 goals conceded from 4.14 xGA (defensive luck +0.14). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Paraguay's group-stage luck built game by game.
Group finishWhere did Paraguay finish in Group D?: Paraguay finished third in Group D with 4 points from 1.88 group-stage xPts (Δ +2.12).
xG by stageWhat are Paraguay's group, knockout and total xG numbers?: Paraguay have 1.10 group-stage xGF and 4.14 group-stage xGA, plus 0.48 knockout xGF and 3.02 knockout xGA. Total: 1.58 xGF, 7.16 xGA.
Best xG matchWhat was Paraguay's best xG match?: Paraguay's highest-xGF match was 1–4 vs USA: 0.54 xG for and 1.42 xG against.

xG by stage

Stage	Matches	Goals	xGF / xGA	xGD	xPts	Scope
Group stage	3	2–4	1.10 / 4.14	-3.04	1.88	Official group-table scope
Knockout	2	1–2	0.48 / 3.02	-2.54	0.82	Match xPts is chance context only
Total	5	3–6	1.58 / 7.16	-5.58	2.70	All completed xG-backed matches

Knockout status

EliminatedAre Paraguay eliminated from the World Cup 2026?: Paraguay are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 90 against France. Paraguay 0–1 France; Paraguay 0.13–1.45 France xG. Paraguay vs France xG guide/result.

Knockout receipts

1-1 vs GermanyKnockout stage · xG 0.35-1.57 · match xPts 0.48 · advanced on penalties 4-3
0-1 vs FranceKnockout stage · xG 0.13-1.45 · match xPts 0.34 · eliminated

Group-stage match receipts

1-4 vs USAxG 0.54-1.42 · xPts 0.69 · Δ -0.69
1-0 vs TurkiyexG 0.32-2.17 · xPts 0.28 · Δ +2.72
0-0 vs AustraliaxG 0.24-0.55 · xPts 0.91 · Δ +0.09

Featured story

BREAKING:

Germany eliminated despite 1.57-0.35 xG edge

Paraguay advanced after 1–1 (3–4 pens); Germany had the stronger chance profile, but the shootout swung the bracket.

Group D story

Turkiye finished fourth despite 5.94 xPts

Turkiye were first in Group D by xPts and xGF but finished fourth. The Paraguay loss remains the swing: 2.17-0.32 xG, zero points.

Schedule context

Paraguay are -3.04 xGD through 3 xG matches against opponents averaging 21.3/48 in the World Cup field and FIFA #23.7 globally; trailed xG against a mid-ranked opponent field.

Group	Group D · 3rd in group
Knockout status	Eliminated Out after Match 90 vs France
Published FIFA rank	FIFA #34 · 30th of 48 World Cup teams
xG vs schedule	Avg opponent field rank 21.3 / 48 · Avg opponent FIFA #23.7 · trailed xG against a mid-ranked opponent field
Group-stage played / record	3 · 1W 1D 1L
Group-stage points	4
Group-stage expected points (xPts)	1.88
Group-stage Δ (Points − xPts)	+2.12
Group-stage goals for / against	2 / 4
Group-stage xG for / against	1.10 / 4.14
Group-stage finishing (Goals − xG)	+0.90
Group-stage defensive luck (xGA − GA)	+0.14

Where Paraguay sit on the total xG luck quadrant

Where Paraguay sit across all xG-backed matches so far — finishing luck (goals − xG) across, defensive luck (xGA − goals conceded) up; the crosshair is zero, exactly as the chances suggest. On the balance of play they are riding their luck.

See Paraguay on the full interactive luck quadrant →

Best and worst group-stage xG matches

Best xG performance

Paraguay 0–0 Australia

Paraguay had their strongest chance profile against Australia, winning the xG battle 0.24–0.55.

Most unlucky result

Paraguay vs USA

Paraguay took 0 points from 0.69 xPts (Δ -0.69).

Most fortunate result

Paraguay vs Turkiye

Paraguay took 3 points from 0.28 xPts (Δ +2.72).

Group-stage match by match

Group-stage match-by-match luck — points taken minus expected points (xPts) each game. Green = took more than the chances deserved, red = deserved more.

Date	Match	Score	Group xG	xPts	Δ
12 June	@ USA	1–4	0.54–1.42	0.69	-0.69
19 June	@ Turkiye	1–0	0.32–2.17	0.28	+2.72
25 June	v Australia	0–0	0.24–0.55	0.91	+0.09

Δ here is per group-stage match: the points Paraguay took that game minus their expected points (xPts) for it. Negative = robbed, positive = fortunate.

Knockout match by match

Date	Match	Score	Knockout xG	Match xPts	Verdict
29 June	@ Germany	1–1	0.35–1.57	0.48	Germany had the stronger chance profile (1.57–0.35 xG) but were knocked out 1–1 (3–4 pens); Paraguay advanced against the xG run.
4 July	v France	0–1	0.13–1.45	0.34	France advanced with an xG edge (1.45–0.13 xG), winning 0–1.

Knockout rows are not added to group points or group-stage xPts. The score decides advancement; match xPts is chance-profile context.

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