xG 2.07 – 0.33 · xPts 2.53 – 0.31 · Knockout stage
Brazil advanced with an xG edge (2.07–0.33 xG), winning 2–1.
World Cup 2026 xG recap: 29 June
Latest available post-match xG · updated 2 July 2026, 02:56 ET · 3 matches, 7 goals, 5.94 total xG. Not live.
3 matches on 29 June, read through expected goals — the day's robberies, smash-and-grabs and standout performances below.
xG stories of the day
Most dominant display
Brazil controlled the chances against Japan, 2.07–0.33 xG — a 2–1 the balance of play backs up. xG breakdown →
Every 29 June match
xG 1.57 – 0.35 · xPts 2.29 – 0.48 · Knockout stage
Germany had the stronger chance profile (1.57–0.35 xG) but were knocked out 1–1 (3–4 pens); Paraguay advanced against the xG run.
xG 0.24 – 1.38 · xPts 0.46 – 2.27 · Knockout stage
Morocco created far more (1.38–0.24 xG), and Morocco advanced on penalties after 1–1 (2–3 pens).
More: all daily recaps · all results · standings & expected points · unluckiest teams · the xG visualizer
Luck is measured per match: actual points minus expected points (xPts), an independent Poisson model on public post-match xG. Figures may differ from other public xG sources. Directional, not official — especially early in the tournament.