How lucky or unlucky were Netherlands in the World Cup 2026 group stage?

Group-stage totals: 7 points from 6.01 xPts (points luck +0.99) and 4 goals conceded from 2.22 xGA (defensive luck -1.78). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Netherlands' group-stage luck built game by game.

Where did Netherlands finish in Group F?

Netherlands finished first in Group F with 7 points from 6.01 group-stage xPts (Δ +0.99).

What are Netherlands's group, knockout and total xG numbers?

Netherlands have 5.24 group-stage xGF and 2.22 group-stage xGA, plus 0.24 knockout xGF and 1.38 knockout xGA. Total: 5.48 xGF, 3.60 xGA.

What was Netherlands's best xG match?

Netherlands's highest-xGF match was 5–1 vs Sweden: 2.61 xG for and 1.01 xG against.

Netherlands at the 2026 World Cup

Eliminated

Netherlands are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 75 against Morocco. Netherlands 1–1 (2–3 pens) Morocco; Netherlands 0.24–1.38 Morocco xG.

Netherlands have 10 goals from 5.24 xG, the sharpest finishing overperformance in the World Cup 2026 group stage.

Next for Netherlands

Knockout result

Netherlands vs Morocco

Match 75 (Round of 32) result page with score, match xG and advancement context.

Latest xG match

1–1 vs Morocco

Knockout stage · xG 0.24-1.38 · eliminated on penalties 2-3

Group table

Group F finish

7 points from 6.01 group-stage xPts. Official group rank decides qualification.

Results

All scores with xG

Every finished match, scoreline, match xG and one-line verdict.

Quick answers

EliminatedAre Netherlands eliminated from the World Cup 2026?: Netherlands are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 75 against Morocco. Netherlands 1–1 (2–3 pens) Morocco; Netherlands 0.24–1.38 Morocco xG.
Clinical finishingHow lucky or unlucky were Netherlands in the World Cup 2026 group stage?: Group-stage totals: 7 points from 6.01 xPts (points luck +0.99) and 4 goals conceded from 2.22 xGA (defensive luck -1.78). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Netherlands' group-stage luck built game by game.
Group finishWhere did Netherlands finish in Group F?: Netherlands finished first in Group F with 7 points from 6.01 group-stage xPts (Δ +0.99).
xG by stageWhat are Netherlands's group, knockout and total xG numbers?: Netherlands have 5.24 group-stage xGF and 2.22 group-stage xGA, plus 0.24 knockout xGF and 1.38 knockout xGA. Total: 5.48 xGF, 3.60 xGA.
Best xG matchWhat was Netherlands's best xG match?: Netherlands's highest-xGF match was 5–1 vs Sweden: 2.61 xG for and 1.01 xG against.

xG by stage

Stage	Matches	Goals	xGF / xGA	xGD	xPts	Scope
Group stage	3	10–4	5.24 / 2.22	+3.02	6.01	Official group-table scope
Knockout	1	1–1	0.24 / 1.38	-1.14	0.46	Match xPts is chance context only
Total	4	11–5	5.48 / 3.60	+1.88	6.47	All completed xG-backed matches

Knockout status

EliminatedAre Netherlands eliminated from the World Cup 2026?: Netherlands are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 75 against Morocco. Netherlands 1–1 (2–3 pens) Morocco; Netherlands 0.24–1.38 Morocco xG. Netherlands vs Morocco xG guide/result.

Knockout receipts

1-1 vs MoroccoKnockout stage · xG 0.24-1.38 · match xPts 0.46 · eliminated on penalties 2-3

Group-stage match receipts

2-2 vs JapanxG 0.78-0.59 · xPts 1.48 · Δ -0.48
5-1 vs SwedenxG 2.61-1.01 · xPts 2.31 · Δ +0.69
3-1 vs TunisiaxG 1.85-0.62 · xPts 2.22 · Δ +0.78

Featured story

Shootout story

Morocco advanced on penalties with a 1.38-0.24 xG edge

After 1–1 (2–3 pens), Morocco had the stronger chance profile and won the shootout; Netherlands were held to 0.24 xG.

Schedule context

Netherlands are +3.02 xGD through 3 xG matches against opponents averaging 28.0/48 in the World Cup field and FIFA #37.0 globally; led xG against a mid-ranked opponent field.

Group	Group F · 1st in group
Knockout status	Eliminated Out after Match 75 vs Morocco
Published FIFA rank	FIFA #9 · 9th of 48 World Cup teams
xG vs schedule	Avg opponent field rank 28.0 / 48 · Avg opponent FIFA #37.0 · led xG against a mid-ranked opponent field
Group-stage played / record	3 · 2W 1D 0L
Group-stage points	7
Group-stage expected points (xPts)	6.01
Group-stage Δ (Points − xPts)	+0.99
Group-stage goals for / against	10 / 4
Group-stage xG for / against	5.24 / 2.22
Group-stage finishing (Goals − xG)	+4.76
Group-stage defensive luck (xGA − GA)	-1.78

Where Netherlands sit on the total xG luck quadrant

Where Netherlands sit across all xG-backed matches so far — finishing luck (goals − xG) across, defensive luck (xGA − goals conceded) up; the crosshair is zero, exactly as the chances suggest. On the balance of play they are clinical but leaky.

See Netherlands on the full interactive luck quadrant →

Best and worst group-stage xG matches

Best xG performance

Netherlands 5–1 Sweden

Netherlands had their strongest chance profile against Sweden, winning the xG battle 2.61–1.01.

Most fortunate result

Netherlands vs Tunisia

Netherlands took 3 points from 2.22 xPts (Δ +0.78).

Group-stage match by match

Group-stage match-by-match luck — points taken minus expected points (xPts) each game. Green = took more than the chances deserved, red = deserved more.

Date	Match	Score	Group xG	xPts	Δ
14 June	v Japan	2–2	0.78–0.59	1.48	-0.48
20 June	v Sweden	5–1	2.61–1.01	2.31	+0.69
25 June	@ Tunisia	3–1	1.85–0.62	2.22	+0.78

Δ here is per group-stage match: the points Netherlands took that game minus their expected points (xPts) for it. Negative = robbed, positive = fortunate.

Knockout match by match

Date	Match	Score	Knockout xG	Match xPts	Verdict
29 June	v Morocco	1–1	0.24–1.38	0.46	Morocco created far more (1.38–0.24 xG), and Morocco advanced on penalties after 1–1 (2–3 pens).

Knockout rows are not added to group points or group-stage xPts. The score decides advancement; match xPts is chance-profile context.

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