Tunisia 1–3 Netherlands

The xG verdict

Netherlands backed up their xG edge (1.85–0.62 xG), winning 1–3.

Quick answers

ResultWho won Tunisia vs Netherlands?
Netherlands won 3–1. The xG was Tunisia 0.62, Netherlands 1.85.
Better xGWho had the better xG in Tunisia vs Netherlands?
Netherlands had the better xG profile, creating the better chances 1.85–0.62 and winning 3–1.
Fair resultWas Tunisia 1–3 Netherlands fair by xG?
Yes. Netherlands won both the scoreboard and the xG battle.
Biggest xG takeawayWhat was the biggest xG takeaway?
Netherlands turned a clear xG edge (1.85–0.62) into the full three points, finishing with 2.22 xPts (Δ +0.78).
Ranking contextWas Tunisia 1–3 Netherlands a published FIFA ranking upset?
No. Tunisia entered 35th of 48 in the World Cup field; Netherlands entered 8th of 48. The higher-ranked side got the result and had the stronger xG profile, 1.85–0.62.
Score1–3
Expected goals (xG)Tunisia 0.62 · Netherlands 1.85
Expected points (xPts)Tunisia 0.57 · Netherlands 2.22
StageGroup F
Published FIFA rankTunisia FIFA #45 (35th of 48) · Netherlands FIFA #8 (8th of 48)

Who had the better xG in Tunisia vs Netherlands?

Netherlands created the better chances — 1.85–0.62 xG, an edge of 1.23. And Netherlands duly won 3–1, the result matching the run of chances. In expected points, Tunisia earned 0.57 and Netherlands 2.22 from this game; the actual return was 0 and 3 (Δ -0.57 for Tunisia, +0.78 for Netherlands).

Was Tunisia lucky or unlucky?

Tunisia were about on script in attack — 1 from 0.62 xG, but punished at the back, shipping 3 from only 1.85 xGA faced. On balance their result return trailed the chances (Δ -0.57).

Was Netherlands lucky or unlucky?

Netherlands were clinical in front of goal — 3 goals from 1.85 xG, and conceded about what their defending deserved (1 from 0.62 xGA). A result backed by the stronger chance profile on the day (Δ +0.78).

What Tunisia 1–3 Netherlands means for Group F

Tunisia sit 4th in Group F on 0 points (1.22 xPts, Δ -1.22); Netherlands sit 1st on 7 points (6.01 xPts, Δ +0.99). See the full Group F table →

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