How lucky or unlucky were Tunisia in the World Cup 2026 group stage?

Group-stage totals: 0 points from 1.22 xPts (points luck -1.22) and 12 goals conceded from 5.31 xGA (defensive luck -6.69). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Tunisia's group-stage luck built game by game.

What are Tunisia's group, knockout and total xG numbers?

Tunisia have 0.95 group-stage xGF and 5.31 group-stage xGA. No knockout xG is recorded for them yet.

What was Tunisia's best xG match?

Tunisia's highest-xGF match was 1–3 vs Netherlands: 0.62 xG for and 1.85 xG against.

Tunisia at the 2026 World Cup

Group exit

Tunisia did not qualify for the World Cup 2026 knockout stage. Tunisia finished fourth in Group F with 0 points from 1.22 group-stage xPts (Δ -1.22).

Tunisia had 2 goals from 0.95 xG (finishing luck +1.05) and 0 points from 1.22 xPts (points luck -1.22) in the World Cup 2026 group stage.

Next for Tunisia

Latest xG match

1–3 vs Netherlands

Group F · xG 0.62-1.85

Group table

Group F finish

0 points from 1.22 group-stage xPts. Official group rank decides qualification.

Results

All scores with xG

Every finished match, scoreline, match xG and one-line verdict.

Quick answers

Group exitDid Tunisia qualify for the World Cup 2026 knockouts?: Tunisia did not qualify for the World Cup 2026 knockout stage. Tunisia finished fourth in Group F with 0 points from 1.22 group-stage xPts (Δ -1.22).
Group-stage verdictHow lucky or unlucky were Tunisia in the World Cup 2026 group stage?: Group-stage totals: 0 points from 1.22 xPts (points luck -1.22) and 12 goals conceded from 5.31 xGA (defensive luck -6.69). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Tunisia's group-stage luck built game by game.
Group finishWhere did Tunisia finish in Group F?: Tunisia finished fourth in Group F with 0 points from 1.22 group-stage xPts (Δ -1.22).
xG by stageWhat are Tunisia's group, knockout and total xG numbers?: Tunisia have 0.95 group-stage xGF and 5.31 group-stage xGA. No knockout xG is recorded for them yet.
Best xG matchWhat was Tunisia's best xG match?: Tunisia's highest-xGF match was 1–3 vs Netherlands: 0.62 xG for and 1.85 xG against.

xG by stage

Stage	Matches	Goals	xGF / xGA	xGD	xPts	Scope
Group stage	3	2–12	0.95 / 5.31	-4.36	1.22	Official group-table scope
Total	3	2–12	0.95 / 5.31	-4.36	1.22	All completed xG-backed matches

Group-stage match receipts

1-5 vs SwedenxG 0.28-1.33 · xPts 0.51 · Δ -0.51
0-4 vs JapanxG 0.05-2.13 · xPts 0.14 · Δ -0.14
1-3 vs NetherlandsxG 0.62-1.85 · xPts 0.57 · Δ -0.57

Schedule context

Tunisia are -4.36 xGD through 3 xG matches against opponents averaging 18.7/48 in the World Cup field and FIFA #21.0 globally; trailed xG against a strong opponent field.

Group	Group F · 4th in group
Knockout status	Group exit Group-stage exit
Published FIFA rank	FIFA #57 · 37th of 48 World Cup teams
xG vs schedule	Avg opponent field rank 18.7 / 48 · Avg opponent FIFA #21.0 · trailed xG against a strong opponent field
Group-stage played / record	3 · 0W 0D 3L
Group-stage points	0
Group-stage expected points (xPts)	1.22
Group-stage Δ (Points − xPts)	-1.22
Group-stage goals for / against	2 / 12
Group-stage xG for / against	0.95 / 5.31
Group-stage finishing (Goals − xG)	+1.05
Group-stage defensive luck (xGA − GA)	-6.69

Where Tunisia sit on the total xG luck quadrant

Where Tunisia sit across all xG-backed matches so far — finishing luck (goals − xG) across, defensive luck (xGA − goals conceded) up; the crosshair is zero, exactly as the chances suggest. On the balance of play they are clinical but leaky.

See Tunisia on the full interactive luck quadrant →

Best and worst group-stage xG matches

Best xG performance

Tunisia 1–5 Sweden

Tunisia had their strongest chance profile against Sweden, winning the xG battle 0.28–1.33.

Most unlucky result

Tunisia vs Netherlands

Tunisia took 0 points from 0.57 xPts (Δ -0.57).

Group-stage match by match

Group-stage match-by-match luck — points taken minus expected points (xPts) each game. Green = took more than the chances deserved, red = deserved more.

Date	Match	Score	Group xG	xPts	Δ
14 June	@ Sweden	1–5	0.28–1.33	0.51	-0.51
20 June	v Japan	0–4	0.05–2.13	0.14	-0.14
25 June	v Netherlands	1–3	0.62–1.85	0.57	-0.57

Δ here is per group-stage match: the points Tunisia took that game minus their expected points (xPts) for it. Negative = robbed, positive = fortunate.

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