Tunisia 0–4 Japan

The xG verdict

Japan backed up their xG edge (2.13–0.05 xG), winning 0–4.

Quick answers

ResultWho won Tunisia vs Japan?
Japan won 4–0. The xG was Tunisia 0.05, Japan 2.13.
Better xGWho had the better xG in Tunisia vs Japan?
Japan had the better xG profile, creating the better chances 2.13–0.05 and winning 4–0.
Fair resultWas Tunisia 0–4 Japan fair by xG?
Yes. Japan won both the scoreboard and the xG battle.
Biggest xG takeawayWhat was the biggest xG takeaway?
Japan turned a clear xG edge (2.13–0.05) into the full three points, finishing with 2.73 xPts (Δ +0.27).
Ranking contextWas Tunisia 0–4 Japan a published FIFA ranking upset?
No. Tunisia entered 35th of 48 in the World Cup field; Japan entered 17th of 48. The higher-ranked side got the result and had the stronger xG profile, 2.13–0.05.
Score0–4
Expected goals (xG)Tunisia 0.05 · Japan 2.13
Expected points (xPts)Tunisia 0.14 · Japan 2.73
StageGroup F
Published FIFA rankTunisia FIFA #45 (35th of 48) · Japan FIFA #18 (17th of 48)

Who had the better xG in Tunisia vs Japan?

Japan created the better chances — 2.13–0.05 xG, an edge of 2.08. And Japan duly won 4–0, the result matching the run of chances. In expected points, Tunisia earned 0.14 and Japan 2.73 from this game; the actual return was 0 and 3 (Δ -0.14 for Tunisia, +0.27 for Japan).

Was Tunisia lucky or unlucky?

Tunisia were about on script in attack — 0 from 0.05 xG, but punished at the back, shipping 4 from only 2.13 xGA faced. A fair return for the performance (Δ -0.14).

Was Japan lucky or unlucky?

Japan were clinical in front of goal — 4 goals from 2.13 xG, and conceded about what their defending deserved (0 from 0.05 xGA). A fair return for the performance (Δ +0.27).

What Tunisia 0–4 Japan means for Group F

Tunisia sit 4th in Group F on 0 points (1.22 xPts, Δ -1.22); Japan sit 2nd on 5 points (5.67 xPts, Δ -0.67). See the full Group F table →

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