Netherlands 5–1 Sweden

The xG verdict

Netherlands backed up their xG edge (2.61–1.01 xG), winning 5–1.

Quick answers

ResultWho won Netherlands vs Sweden?
Netherlands won 5–1. The xG was Netherlands 2.61, Sweden 1.01.
Better xGWho had the better xG in Netherlands vs Sweden?
Netherlands had the better xG profile, creating the better chances 2.61–1.01 and winning 5–1.
Fair resultWas Netherlands 5–1 Sweden fair by xG?
Yes. Netherlands won both the scoreboard and the xG battle.
Biggest xG takeawayWhat was the biggest xG takeaway?
Netherlands turned a clear xG edge (2.61–1.01) into the full three points, finishing with 2.31 xPts (Δ +0.69).
Ranking contextWas Netherlands 5–1 Sweden a published FIFA ranking upset?
No. Sweden entered 31st of 48 in the World Cup field; Netherlands entered 8th of 48. The higher-ranked side got the result and had the stronger xG profile, 2.61–1.01.
Score5–1
Expected goals (xG)Netherlands 2.61 · Sweden 1.01
Expected points (xPts)Netherlands 2.31 · Sweden 0.53
StageGroup F
Published FIFA rankNetherlands FIFA #8 (8th of 48) · Sweden FIFA #38 (31st of 48)

Who had the better xG in Netherlands vs Sweden?

Netherlands created the better chances — 2.61–1.01 xG, an edge of 1.60. And Netherlands duly won 5–1, the result matching the run of chances. In expected points, Netherlands earned 2.31 and Sweden 0.53 from this game; the actual return was 3 and 0 (Δ +0.69 for Netherlands, -0.53 for Sweden).

Was Netherlands lucky or unlucky?

Netherlands were clinical in front of goal — 5 goals from 2.61 xG, and conceded about what their defending deserved (1 from 1.01 xGA). A result backed by the stronger chance profile on the day (Δ +0.69).

Was Sweden lucky or unlucky?

Sweden were about on script in attack — 1 from 1.01 xG, but punished at the back, shipping 5 from only 2.61 xGA faced. On balance their result return trailed the chances (Δ -0.53).

What Netherlands 5–1 Sweden means for Group F

Netherlands sit 1st in Group F on 7 points (6.01 xPts, Δ +0.99); Sweden sit 3rd on 4 points (3.63 xPts, Δ +0.37). See the full Group F table →

20 June xG recap · Netherlands · Sweden · xG robberies · stat leaders · ← All results