How lucky or unlucky were Sweden in the World Cup 2026 group stage?

Group-stage totals: 4 points from 3.63 xPts (points luck +0.37) and 7 goals conceded from 4.10 xGA (defensive luck -2.90). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Sweden's group-stage luck built game by game.

Where did Sweden finish in Group F?

Sweden finished third in Group F with 4 points from 3.63 group-stage xPts (Δ +0.37).

What are Sweden's group, knockout and total xG numbers?

Sweden have 2.98 group-stage xGF and 4.10 group-stage xGA, plus 0.70 knockout xGF and 3.24 knockout xGA. Total: 3.68 xGF, 7.34 xGA.

What was Sweden's best xG match?

Sweden's highest-xGF match was 5–1 vs Tunisia: 1.33 xG for and 0.28 xG against.

Sweden at the 2026 World Cup

Eliminated

Sweden are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 77 against France. France 3–0 Sweden; France 3.24–0.70 Sweden xG.

Sweden have 7 goals from 2.98 xG, a clear clinical-finishing group-stage read.

Next for Sweden

Knockout result

Sweden vs France

Match 77 (Round of 32) result page with score, match xG and advancement context.

Latest xG match

0–3 vs France

Knockout stage · xG 0.70-3.24 · eliminated

Group table

Group F finish

4 points from 3.63 group-stage xPts. Official group rank decides qualification.

Results

All scores with xG

Every finished match, scoreline, match xG and one-line verdict.

Quick answers

EliminatedAre Sweden eliminated from the World Cup 2026?: Sweden are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 77 against France. France 3–0 Sweden; France 3.24–0.70 Sweden xG.
Clinical finishingHow lucky or unlucky were Sweden in the World Cup 2026 group stage?: Group-stage totals: 4 points from 3.63 xPts (points luck +0.37) and 7 goals conceded from 4.10 xGA (defensive luck -2.90). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Sweden's group-stage luck built game by game.
Group finishWhere did Sweden finish in Group F?: Sweden finished third in Group F with 4 points from 3.63 group-stage xPts (Δ +0.37).
xG by stageWhat are Sweden's group, knockout and total xG numbers?: Sweden have 2.98 group-stage xGF and 4.10 group-stage xGA, plus 0.70 knockout xGF and 3.24 knockout xGA. Total: 3.68 xGF, 7.34 xGA.
Best xG matchWhat was Sweden's best xG match?: Sweden's highest-xGF match was 5–1 vs Tunisia: 1.33 xG for and 0.28 xG against.

xG by stage

Stage	Matches	Goals	xGF / xGA	xGD	xPts	Scope
Group stage	3	7–7	2.98 / 4.10	-1.12	3.63	Official group-table scope
Knockout	1	0–3	0.70 / 3.24	-2.54	0.24	Match xPts is chance context only
Total	4	7–10	3.68 / 7.34	-3.66	3.87	All completed xG-backed matches

Knockout status

EliminatedAre Sweden eliminated from the World Cup 2026?: Sweden are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 77 against France. France 3–0 Sweden; France 3.24–0.70 Sweden xG. Sweden vs France xG guide/result.

Knockout receipts

0-3 vs FranceKnockout stage · xG 0.70-3.24 · match xPts 0.24 · eliminated

Group-stage match receipts

5-1 vs TunisiaxG 1.33-0.28 · xPts 2.21 · Δ +0.79
1-5 vs NetherlandsxG 1.01-2.61 · xPts 0.53 · Δ -0.53
1-1 vs JapanxG 0.64-1.21 · xPts 0.89 · Δ +0.11

Schedule context

Sweden are -1.12 xGD through 3 xG matches against opponents averaging 20.7/48 in the World Cup field and FIFA #27.7 globally; trailed xG against a mid-ranked opponent field.

Group	Group F · 3rd in group
Knockout status	Eliminated Out after Match 77 vs France
Published FIFA rank	FIFA #37 · 31st of 48 World Cup teams
xG vs schedule	Avg opponent field rank 20.7 / 48 · Avg opponent FIFA #27.7 · trailed xG against a mid-ranked opponent field
Group-stage played / record	3 · 1W 1D 1L
Group-stage points	4
Group-stage expected points (xPts)	3.63
Group-stage Δ (Points − xPts)	+0.37
Group-stage goals for / against	7 / 7
Group-stage xG for / against	2.98 / 4.10
Group-stage finishing (Goals − xG)	+4.02
Group-stage defensive luck (xGA − GA)	-2.90

Where Sweden sit on the total xG luck quadrant

Where Sweden sit across all xG-backed matches so far — finishing luck (goals − xG) across, defensive luck (xGA − goals conceded) up; the crosshair is zero, exactly as the chances suggest. On the balance of play they are clinical but leaky.

See Sweden on the full interactive luck quadrant →

Best and worst group-stage xG matches

Best xG performance

Sweden 5–1 Tunisia

Sweden had their strongest chance profile against Tunisia, winning the xG battle 1.33–0.28.

Most unlucky result

Sweden vs Netherlands

Sweden took 0 points from 0.53 xPts (Δ -0.53).

Most fortunate result

Sweden vs Tunisia

Sweden took 3 points from 2.21 xPts (Δ +0.79).

Group-stage match by match

Group-stage match-by-match luck — points taken minus expected points (xPts) each game. Green = took more than the chances deserved, red = deserved more.

Date	Match	Score	Group xG	xPts	Δ
14 June	v Tunisia	5–1	1.33–0.28	2.21	+0.79
20 June	@ Netherlands	1–5	1.01–2.61	0.53	-0.53
25 June	@ Japan	1–1	0.64–1.21	0.89	+0.11

Δ here is per group-stage match: the points Sweden took that game minus their expected points (xPts) for it. Negative = robbed, positive = fortunate.

Knockout match by match

Date	Match	Score	Knockout xG	Match xPts	Verdict
30 June	@ France	0–3	0.70–3.24	0.24	France advanced with an xG edge (3.24–0.70 xG), winning 3–0.

Knockout rows are not added to group points or group-stage xPts. The score decides advancement; match xPts is chance-profile context.

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