xG 1.49 – 1.90 · xPts 1.13 – 1.64 · Knockout stage
Norway advanced from a balanced knockout game 1–2 (1.49–1.90 xG).
World Cup 2026 xG recap: 30 June
Latest available post-match xG · updated 2 July 2026, 02:56 ET · 3 matches, 8 goals, 9.13 total xG. Not live.
3 matches on 30 June, read through expected goals — the day's robberies, smash-and-grabs and standout performances below.
xG stories of the day
Most fortunate result
Norway advanced from a 2–1 while out-chanced 1.90–1.49 — clinical, or fortunate (Δ +1.36). xG breakdown →
Most dominant display
France controlled the chances against Sweden, 3.24–0.70 xG — a 3–0 the balance of play backs up. xG breakdown →
Every 30 June match
xG 3.24 – 0.70 · xPts 2.66 – 0.24 · Knockout stage
France advanced with an xG edge (3.24–0.70 xG), winning 3–0.
xG 1.05 – 0.75 · xPts 1.58 – 1.09 · Knockout stage
Mexico advanced from a balanced knockout game 2–0 (1.05–0.75 xG).
More: all daily recaps · all results · standings & expected points · unluckiest teams · the xG visualizer
Luck is measured per match: actual points minus expected points (xPts), an independent Poisson model on public post-match xG. Figures may differ from other public xG sources. Directional, not official — especially early in the tournament.