How lucky or unlucky were France in the World Cup 2026 group stage?

Group-stage totals: 9 points from 6.06 xPts (points luck +2.94) and 2 goals conceded from 2.86 xGA (defensive luck +0.86). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how France's group-stage luck built game by game.

Where did France finish in Group I?

France finished first in Group I with 9 points from 6.06 group-stage xPts (Δ +2.94).

What are France's group, knockout and total xG numbers?

France have 5.96 group-stage xGF and 2.86 group-stage xGA, plus 11.57 knockout xGF and 5.48 knockout xGA. Total: 17.53 xGF, 8.34 xGA.

What was France's best xG match?

France's highest-xGF match was 2–0 vs Morocco: 3.69 xG for and 0.14 xG against.

France at the 2026 World Cup

Eliminated

France are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 101 against Spain. France 0–2 Spain; France 0.31–1.63 Spain xG.

France have 9 points from 6.06 xPts, with group-stage results running ahead of the chances.

Next for France

Knockout result

France vs Spain

Match 101 (Semi-final) result page with score, match xG and advancement context.

Latest xG match

4–6 vs England

Knockout stage · xG 2.88-2.88 · eliminated

Group table

Group I finish

9 points from 6.06 group-stage xPts. Official group rank decides qualification.

Results

All scores with xG

Every finished match, scoreline, match xG and one-line verdict.

Quick answers

EliminatedAre France eliminated from the World Cup 2026?: France are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 101 against Spain. France 0–2 Spain; France 0.31–1.63 Spain xG.
Riding their luckHow lucky or unlucky were France in the World Cup 2026 group stage?: Group-stage totals: 9 points from 6.06 xPts (points luck +2.94) and 2 goals conceded from 2.86 xGA (defensive luck +0.86). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how France's group-stage luck built game by game.
Group finishWhere did France finish in Group I?: France finished first in Group I with 9 points from 6.06 group-stage xPts (Δ +2.94).
xG by stageWhat are France's group, knockout and total xG numbers?: France have 5.96 group-stage xGF and 2.86 group-stage xGA, plus 11.57 knockout xGF and 5.48 knockout xGA. Total: 17.53 xGF, 8.34 xGA.
Best xG matchWhat was France's best xG match?: France's highest-xGF match was 2–0 vs Morocco: 3.69 xG for and 0.14 xG against.

xG by stage

Stage	Matches	Goals	xGF / xGA	xGD	xPts	Scope
Group stage	3	10–2	5.96 / 2.86	+3.10	6.07	Official group-table scope
Knockout	5	10–8	11.57 / 5.48	+6.09	9.81	Match xPts is chance context only
Total	8	20–10	17.53 / 8.34	+9.19	15.88	All completed xG-backed matches

Knockout status

EliminatedAre France eliminated from the World Cup 2026?: France are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 101 against Spain. France 0–2 Spain; France 0.31–1.63 Spain xG. France vs Spain xG guide/result.

Knockout receipts

3-0 vs SwedenKnockout stage · xG 3.24-0.70 · match xPts 2.66 · advanced
1-0 vs ParaguayKnockout stage · xG 1.45-0.13 · match xPts 2.41 · advanced
2-0 vs MoroccoKnockout stage · xG 3.69-0.14 · match xPts 2.91 · advanced
0-2 vs SpainKnockout stage · xG 0.31-1.63 · match xPts 0.42 · eliminated
4-6 vs EnglandKnockout stage · xG 2.88-2.88 · match xPts 1.41 · eliminated

Group-stage match receipts

3-1 vs SenegalxG 1.79-0.53 · xPts 2.26 · Δ +0.74
3-0 vs IraqxG 2.67-0.63 · xPts 2.55 · Δ +0.45
4-1 vs NorwayxG 1.50-1.70 · xPts 1.26 · Δ +1.74

Schedule context

France are +3.10 xGD through 3 xG matches against opponents averaging 25.7/48 in the World Cup field and FIFA #33.3 globally; led xG against a mid-ranked opponent field.

Group	Group I · 1st in group
Knockout status	Eliminated Out after Match 101 vs Spain
Published FIFA rank	FIFA #3 · 3rd of 48 World Cup teams
xG vs schedule	Avg opponent field rank 25.7 / 48 · Avg opponent FIFA #33.3 · led xG against a mid-ranked opponent field
Group-stage played / record	3 · 3W 0D 0L
Group-stage points	9
Group-stage expected points (xPts)	6.06
Group-stage Δ (Points − xPts)	+2.94
Group-stage goals for / against	10 / 2
Group-stage xG for / against	5.96 / 2.86
Group-stage finishing (Goals − xG)	+4.04
Group-stage defensive luck (xGA − GA)	+0.86

Where France sit on the total xG luck quadrant

Where France sit across all xG-backed matches so far — finishing luck (goals − xG) across, defensive luck (xGA − goals conceded) up; the crosshair is zero, exactly as the chances suggest. On the balance of play they are clinical but leaky.

See France on the full interactive luck quadrant →

Best and worst group-stage xG matches

Best xG performance

France 3–0 Iraq

France had their strongest chance profile against Iraq, winning the xG battle 2.67–0.63.

Most fortunate result

France vs Norway

France took 3 points from 1.26 xPts (Δ +1.74).

Group-stage match by match

Group-stage match-by-match luck — points taken minus expected points (xPts) each game. Green = took more than the chances deserved, red = deserved more.

Date	Match	Score	Group xG	xPts	Δ
16 June	v Senegal	3–1	1.79–0.53	2.26	+0.74
22 June	v Iraq	3–0	2.67–0.63	2.55	+0.45
26 June	@ Norway	4–1	1.50–1.70	1.26	+1.74

Δ here is per group-stage match: the points France took that game minus their expected points (xPts) for it. Negative = robbed, positive = fortunate.

Knockout match by match

Date	Match	Score	Knockout xG	Match xPts	Verdict
30 June	v Sweden	3–0	3.24–0.70	2.66	France advanced with an xG edge (3.24–0.70 xG), winning 3–0.
4 July	@ Paraguay	1–0	1.45–0.13	2.41	France advanced with an xG edge (1.45–0.13 xG), winning 0–1.
9 July	v Morocco	2–0	3.69–0.14	2.91	France advanced with an xG edge (3.69–0.14 xG), winning 2–0.
14 July	v Spain	0–2	0.31–1.63	0.42	Spain advanced with an xG edge (1.63–0.31 xG), winning 0–2.
18 July	v England	4–6	2.88–2.88	1.41	England advanced from a balanced knockout game 4–6 (2.88–2.88 xG).

Knockout rows are not added to group points or group-stage xPts. The score decides advancement; match xPts is chance-profile context.

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