xG 2.16 – 0.77 · xPts 2.27 – 0.55 · Knockout stage
England advanced with an xG edge (2.16–0.77 xG), winning 2–1.
World Cup 2026 xG recap: 1 July
Latest available post-match xG · updated 2 July 2026, 02:56 ET · 3 matches, 10 goals, 9.38 total xG. Not live.
3 matches on 1 July, read through expected goals — the day's robberies, smash-and-grabs and standout performances below.
xG stories of the day
Most fortunate result
Belgium advanced from a 3–2 while out-chanced 1.74–3.58 — clinical, or fortunate (Δ +2.42). xG breakdown →
Every 1 July match
xG 1.74 – 3.58 · xPts 0.58 – 2.29 · Knockout stage
Senegal had the stronger chance profile (3.58–1.74 xG) but were knocked out 3–2; Belgium advanced against the xG run.
xG 0.88 – 0.25 · xPts 1.90 – 0.70 · Knockout stage
USA advanced from a balanced knockout game 2–0 (0.88–0.25 xG).
More: all daily recaps · all results · standings & expected points · unluckiest teams · the xG visualizer
Luck is measured per match: actual points minus expected points (xPts), an independent Poisson model on public post-match xG. Figures may differ from other public xG sources. Directional, not official — especially early in the tournament.