How lucky or unlucky were USA in the World Cup 2026 group stage?

Group-stage totals: 6 points from 4.96 xPts (points luck +1.04) and 4 goals conceded from 3.94 xGA (defensive luck -0.06). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how USA's group-stage luck built game by game.

Where did USA finish in Group D?

USA finished first in Group D with 6 points from 4.96 group-stage xPts (Δ +1.04).

What are USA's group, knockout and total xG numbers?

USA have 4.63 group-stage xGF and 3.94 group-stage xGA, plus 1.51 knockout xGF and 2.26 knockout xGA. Total: 6.14 xGF, 6.20 xGA.

What was USA's best xG match?

USA's highest-xGF match was 2–3 vs Turkiye: 2.13 xG for and 3.05 xG against.

USA at the 2026 World Cup

Eliminated

USA are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 94 against Belgium. USA 1–4 Belgium; USA 0.63–2.01 Belgium xG.

USA have 8 goals from 4.63 xG, a clear clinical-finishing group-stage read.

Next for USA

Knockout result

USA vs Belgium

Match 94 (Round of 16) result page with score, match xG and advancement context.

Latest xG match

1–4 vs Belgium

Knockout stage · xG 0.63-2.01 · eliminated

Group table

Group D finish

6 points from 4.96 group-stage xPts. Official group rank decides qualification.

Results

All scores with xG

Every finished match, scoreline, match xG and one-line verdict.

Quick answers

EliminatedAre USA eliminated from the World Cup 2026?: USA are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 94 against Belgium. USA 1–4 Belgium; USA 0.63–2.01 Belgium xG.
Clinical finishingHow lucky or unlucky were USA in the World Cup 2026 group stage?: Group-stage totals: 6 points from 4.96 xPts (points luck +1.04) and 4 goals conceded from 3.94 xGA (defensive luck -0.06). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how USA's group-stage luck built game by game.
Group finishWhere did USA finish in Group D?: USA finished first in Group D with 6 points from 4.96 group-stage xPts (Δ +1.04).
xG by stageWhat are USA's group, knockout and total xG numbers?: USA have 4.63 group-stage xGF and 3.94 group-stage xGA, plus 1.51 knockout xGF and 2.26 knockout xGA. Total: 6.14 xGF, 6.20 xGA.
Best xG matchWhat was USA's best xG match?: USA's highest-xGF match was 2–3 vs Turkiye: 2.13 xG for and 3.05 xG against.

xG by stage

Stage	Matches	Goals	xGF / xGA	xGD	xPts	Scope
Group stage	3	8–4	4.63 / 3.94	+0.69	4.96	Official group-table scope
Knockout	2	3–4	1.51 / 2.26	-0.75	2.41	Match xPts is chance context only
Total	5	11–8	6.14 / 6.20	-0.06	7.37	All completed xG-backed matches

Knockout status

EliminatedAre USA eliminated from the World Cup 2026?: USA are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 94 against Belgium. USA 1–4 Belgium; USA 0.63–2.01 Belgium xG. USA vs Belgium xG guide/result.

Knockout receipts

2-0 vs Bosnia and HerzegovinaKnockout stage · xG 0.88-0.25 · match xPts 1.90 · advanced
1-4 vs BelgiumKnockout stage · xG 0.63-2.01 · match xPts 0.51 · eliminated

Group-stage match receipts

4-1 vs ParaguayxG 1.42-0.54 · xPts 2.04 · Δ +0.96
2-0 vs AustraliaxG 1.08-0.35 · xPts 1.96 · Δ +1.04
2-3 vs TurkiyexG 2.13-3.05 · xPts 0.96 · Δ -0.96

Featured story

UPDATE:

USA advanced, and FIFA cleared Balogun for Belgium

USA beat Bosnia and Herzegovina 2–0 with a 0.88-0.25 xG edge; Balogun scored, saw red, then had the automatic ban suspended before Belgium.

Schedule context

USA are +0.69 xGD through 3 xG matches against opponents averaging 26.3/48 in the World Cup field and FIFA #29.7 globally; led xG against a mid-ranked opponent field.

Group	Group D · 1st in group
Knockout status	Eliminated Out after Match 94 vs Belgium
Published FIFA rank	FIFA #16 · 15th of 48 World Cup teams
xG vs schedule	Avg opponent field rank 26.3 / 48 · Avg opponent FIFA #29.7 · led xG against a mid-ranked opponent field
Group-stage played / record	3 · 2W 0D 1L
Group-stage points	6
Group-stage expected points (xPts)	4.96
Group-stage Δ (Points − xPts)	+1.04
Group-stage goals for / against	8 / 4
Group-stage xG for / against	4.63 / 3.94
Group-stage finishing (Goals − xG)	+3.37
Group-stage defensive luck (xGA − GA)	-0.06

Where USA sit on the total xG luck quadrant

Where USA sit across all xG-backed matches so far — finishing luck (goals − xG) across, defensive luck (xGA − goals conceded) up; the crosshair is zero, exactly as the chances suggest. On the balance of play they are clinical but leaky.

See USA on the full interactive luck quadrant →

Best and worst group-stage xG matches

Best xG performance

USA 4–1 Paraguay

USA had their strongest chance profile against Paraguay, winning the xG battle 1.42–0.54.

Most unlucky result

USA vs Turkiye

USA took 0 points from 0.96 xPts (Δ -0.96).

Most fortunate result

USA vs Australia

USA took 3 points from 1.96 xPts (Δ +1.04).

Group-stage match by match

Group-stage match-by-match luck — points taken minus expected points (xPts) each game. Green = took more than the chances deserved, red = deserved more.

Date	Match	Score	Group xG	xPts	Δ
12 June	v Paraguay	4–1	1.42–0.54	2.04	+0.96
19 June	v Australia	2–0	1.08–0.35	1.96	+1.04
25 June	@ Turkiye	2–3	2.13–3.05	0.96	-0.96

Δ here is per group-stage match: the points USA took that game minus their expected points (xPts) for it. Negative = robbed, positive = fortunate.

Knockout match by match

Date	Match	Score	Knockout xG	Match xPts	Verdict
1 July	v Bosnia and Herzegovina	2–0	0.88–0.25	1.90	USA advanced from a balanced knockout game 2–0 (0.88–0.25 xG).
6 July	v Belgium	1–4	0.63–2.01	0.51	Belgium advanced with an xG edge (2.01–0.63 xG), winning 1–4.

Knockout rows are not added to group points or group-stage xPts. The score decides advancement; match xPts is chance-profile context.

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