USA 4–1 Paraguay
USA backed up their xG edge (1.42–0.54 xG), winning 4–1.
Quick answers
- ResultWho won USA vs Paraguay?
- USA won 4–1. The xG was USA 1.42, Paraguay 0.54.
- Better xGWho had the better xG in USA vs Paraguay?
- USA had the better xG profile, creating the better chances 1.42–0.54 and winning 4–1.
- Fair resultWas USA 4–1 Paraguay fair by xG?
- Yes. USA won both the scoreboard and the xG battle.
- Biggest xG takeawayWhat was the biggest xG takeaway?
- USA turned a clear xG edge (1.42–0.54) into the full three points, finishing with 2.04 xPts (Δ +0.96).
- Ranking contextWas USA 4–1 Paraguay a published FIFA ranking upset?
- No. Paraguay entered 33rd of 48 in the World Cup field; USA entered 16th of 48. The higher-ranked side got the result and had the stronger xG profile, 1.42–0.54.
| Score | 4–1 |
|---|---|
| Expected goals (xG) | USA 1.42 · Paraguay 0.54 |
| Expected points (xPts) | USA 2.04 · Paraguay 0.69 |
| Stage | Group D |
| Published FIFA rank | USA FIFA #17 (16th of 48) · Paraguay FIFA #41 (33rd of 48) |
Who had the better xG in USA vs Paraguay?
USA created the better chances — 1.42–0.54 xG, an edge of 0.88. And USA duly won 4–1, the result matching the run of chances. In expected points, USA earned 2.04 and Paraguay 0.69 from this game; the actual return was 3 and 0 (Δ +0.96 for USA, -0.69 for Paraguay).
Was USA lucky or unlucky?
USA were clinical in front of goal — 4 goals from 1.42 xG, and conceded about what their defending deserved (1 from 0.54 xGA). A result backed by the stronger chance profile on the day (Δ +0.96).
Was Paraguay lucky or unlucky?
Paraguay were about on script in attack — 1 from 0.54 xG, but punished at the back, shipping 4 from only 1.42 xGA faced. On balance their result return trailed the chances (Δ -0.69).
What USA 4–1 Paraguay means for Group D
USA sit 1st in Group D on 6 points (4.96 xPts, Δ +1.04); Paraguay sit 3rd on 4 points (1.88 xPts, Δ +2.12). See the full Group D table →
12 June xG recap · USA · Paraguay · xG robberies · stat leaders · ← All results