xG 1.30 – 0.44 · xPts 2.04 – 0.67 · Group D
USA backed up their xG edge (1.30–0.44 xG), winning 2–0.
Latest available post-match xG · updated 19 June 2026, 20:27 ET · 2 matches, 3 goals, 3.25 total xG. Not live.
The 19 June results ran true to the chances — few surprises, little theft. Every match below with its xG.
USA backed up their xG edge (1.30–0.44 xG), winning 2–0.
Morocco edged a balanced game 0–1 (0.54–0.97 xG).
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Luck is measured per match: actual points minus expected points (xPts), an independent Poisson model on public post-match xG. Figures may differ from other public xG sources. Directional, not official — especially early in the tournament.