How lucky or unlucky were Australia in the World Cup 2026 group stage?

Group-stage totals: 4 points from 3.51 xPts (points luck +0.49) and 2 goals conceded from 2.68 xGA (defensive luck +0.68). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Australia's group-stage luck built game by game.

Where did Australia finish in Group D?

Australia finished second in Group D with 4 points from 3.51 group-stage xPts (Δ +0.49).

What are Australia's group, knockout and total xG numbers?

Australia have 2.08 group-stage xGF and 2.68 group-stage xGA, plus 0.84 knockout xGF and 1.32 knockout xGA. Total: 2.92 xGF, 4.00 xGA.

What was Australia's best xG match?

Australia's highest-xGF match was 2–0 vs Turkiye: 1.18 xG for and 1.36 xG against.

Australia at the 2026 World Cup

Eliminated

Australia are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 88 against Egypt. Australia 1–1 (2–4 pens) Egypt; Australia 0.84–1.32 Egypt xG.

Australia had 2 goals from 2.08 xG (finishing luck -0.08) and 4 points from 3.51 xPts (points luck +0.49) in the World Cup 2026 group stage.

Next for Australia

Knockout result

Australia vs Egypt

Match 88 (Round of 32) result page with score, match xG and advancement context.

Latest xG match

1–1 vs Egypt

Knockout stage · xG 0.84-1.32 · eliminated on penalties 2-4

Group table

Group D finish

4 points from 3.51 group-stage xPts. Official group rank decides qualification.

Results

All scores with xG

Every finished match, scoreline, match xG and one-line verdict.

Quick answers

EliminatedAre Australia eliminated from the World Cup 2026?: Australia are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 88 against Egypt. Australia 1–1 (2–4 pens) Egypt; Australia 0.84–1.32 Egypt xG.
Group-stage verdictHow lucky or unlucky were Australia in the World Cup 2026 group stage?: Group-stage totals: 4 points from 3.51 xPts (points luck +0.49) and 2 goals conceded from 2.68 xGA (defensive luck +0.68). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Australia's group-stage luck built game by game.
Group finishWhere did Australia finish in Group D?: Australia finished second in Group D with 4 points from 3.51 group-stage xPts (Δ +0.49).
xG by stageWhat are Australia's group, knockout and total xG numbers?: Australia have 2.08 group-stage xGF and 2.68 group-stage xGA, plus 0.84 knockout xGF and 1.32 knockout xGA. Total: 2.92 xGF, 4.00 xGA.
Best xG matchWhat was Australia's best xG match?: Australia's highest-xGF match was 2–0 vs Turkiye: 1.18 xG for and 1.36 xG against.

xG by stage

Stage	Matches	Goals	xGF / xGA	xGD	xPts	Scope
Group stage	3	2–2	2.08 / 2.68	-0.60	3.52	Official group-table scope
Knockout	1	1–1	0.84 / 1.32	-0.48	1.00	Match xPts is chance context only
Total	4	3–3	2.92 / 4.00	-1.08	4.52	All completed xG-backed matches

Knockout status

EliminatedAre Australia eliminated from the World Cup 2026?: Australia are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 88 against Egypt. Australia 1–1 (2–4 pens) Egypt; Australia 0.84–1.32 Egypt xG. Australia vs Egypt xG guide/result.

Knockout receipts

1-1 vs EgyptKnockout stage · xG 0.84-1.32 · match xPts 1.00 · eliminated on penalties 2-4

Group-stage match receipts

2-0 vs TurkiyexG 1.18-1.36 · xPts 1.24 · Δ +1.76
0-2 vs USAxG 0.35-1.08 · xPts 0.70 · Δ -0.70
0-0 vs ParaguayxG 0.55-0.24 · xPts 1.58 · Δ -0.58

Schedule context

Australia are -0.60 xGD through 3 xG matches against opponents averaging 23.0/48 in the World Cup field and FIFA #25.7 globally; trailed xG against a mid-ranked opponent field.

Group	Group D · 2nd in group
Knockout status	Eliminated Out after Match 88 vs Egypt
Published FIFA rank	FIFA #28 · 25th of 48 World Cup teams
xG vs schedule	Avg opponent field rank 23.0 / 48 · Avg opponent FIFA #25.7 · trailed xG against a mid-ranked opponent field
Group-stage played / record	3 · 1W 1D 1L
Group-stage points	4
Group-stage expected points (xPts)	3.51
Group-stage Δ (Points − xPts)	+0.49
Group-stage goals for / against	2 / 2
Group-stage xG for / against	2.08 / 2.68
Group-stage finishing (Goals − xG)	-0.08
Group-stage defensive luck (xGA − GA)	+0.68

Where Australia sit on the total xG luck quadrant

Where Australia sit across all xG-backed matches so far — finishing luck (goals − xG) across, defensive luck (xGA − goals conceded) up; the crosshair is zero, exactly as the chances suggest. On the balance of play they are riding their luck.

See Australia on the full interactive luck quadrant →

Best and worst group-stage xG matches

Best xG performance

Australia 0–0 Paraguay

Australia had their strongest chance profile against Paraguay, winning the xG battle 0.55–0.24.

Most unlucky result

Australia vs USA

Australia took 0 points from 0.70 xPts (Δ -0.70).

Most fortunate result

Australia vs Turkiye

Australia took 3 points from 1.24 xPts (Δ +1.76).

Group-stage match by match

Group-stage match-by-match luck — points taken minus expected points (xPts) each game. Green = took more than the chances deserved, red = deserved more.

Date	Match	Score	Group xG	xPts	Δ
13 June	v Turkiye	2–0	1.18–1.36	1.24	+1.76
19 June	@ USA	0–2	0.35–1.08	0.70	-0.70
25 June	@ Paraguay	0–0	0.55–0.24	1.58	-0.58

Δ here is per group-stage match: the points Australia took that game minus their expected points (xPts) for it. Negative = robbed, positive = fortunate.

Knockout match by match

Date	Match	Score	Knockout xG	Match xPts	Verdict
3 July	v Egypt	1–1	0.84–1.32	1.00	Egypt advanced on penalties after a balanced knockout game 1–1 (2–4 pens) (0.84–1.32 xG).

Knockout rows are not added to group points or group-stage xPts. The score decides advancement; match xPts is chance-profile context.

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