How lucky or unlucky were England in the World Cup 2026 group stage?

Group-stage totals: 7 points from 7.01 xPts (points luck -0.01) and 2 goals conceded from 1.53 xGA (defensive luck -0.47). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how England's group-stage luck built game by game.

Where did England finish in Group L?

England finished first in Group L with 7 points from 7.01 group-stage xPts (Δ -0.01).

What are England's group, knockout and total xG numbers?

England have 6.12 group-stage xGF and 1.53 group-stage xGA, plus 8.22 knockout xGF and 7.80 knockout xGA. Total: 14.34 xGF, 9.33 xGA.

What was England's best xG match?

England's highest-xGF match was 4–2 vs Croatia: 3.20 xG for and 0.70 xG against.

England at the 2026 World Cup

Eliminated

England advanced from Match 103 against France. France 4–6 England; France 2.88–2.88 England xG.

England have a strong xG difference (+4.59 xGD), with the group-stage chances ahead of the scoreboard story.

Next for England

Knockout result

England vs France

Match 103 (Third-place match) result page with score, match xG and advancement context.

Latest xG match

6–4 vs France

Knockout stage · xG 2.88-2.88 · advanced

Group table

Group L finish

7 points from 7.01 group-stage xPts. Official group rank decides qualification.

Results

All scores with xG

Every finished match, scoreline, match xG and one-line verdict.

Quick answers

EliminatedAre England eliminated from the World Cup 2026?: England advanced from Match 103 against France. France 4–6 England; France 2.88–2.88 England xG.
Quietly dominantHow lucky or unlucky were England in the World Cup 2026 group stage?: Group-stage totals: 7 points from 7.01 xPts (points luck -0.01) and 2 goals conceded from 1.53 xGA (defensive luck -0.47). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how England's group-stage luck built game by game.
Group finishWhere did England finish in Group L?: England finished first in Group L with 7 points from 7.01 group-stage xPts (Δ -0.01).
xG by stageWhat are England's group, knockout and total xG numbers?: England have 6.12 group-stage xGF and 1.53 group-stage xGA, plus 8.22 knockout xGF and 7.80 knockout xGA. Total: 14.34 xGF, 9.33 xGA.
Best xG matchWhat was England's best xG match?: England's highest-xGF match was 4–2 vs Croatia: 3.20 xG for and 0.70 xG against.

xG by stage

Stage	Matches	Goals	xGF / xGA	xGD	xPts	Scope
Group stage	3	6–2	6.12 / 1.53	+4.59	7.01	Official group-table scope
Knockout	5	14–10	8.22 / 7.80	+0.42	7.14	Match xPts is chance context only
Total	8	20–12	14.34 / 9.33	+5.01	14.15	All completed xG-backed matches

Knockout status

EliminatedAre England eliminated from the World Cup 2026?: England advanced from Match 103 against France. France 4–6 England; France 2.88–2.88 England xG. England vs France xG guide/result.

Knockout receipts

2-1 vs DR CongoKnockout stage · xG 2.16-0.77 · match xPts 2.27 · advanced
3-2 vs MexicoKnockout stage · xG 1.61-1.88 · match xPts 1.22 · advanced
2-1 vs NorwayKnockout stage · xG 1.04-0.68 · match xPts 1.63 · advanced
1-2 vs ArgentinaKnockout stage · xG 0.53-1.59 · match xPts 0.61 · eliminated
6-4 vs FranceKnockout stage · xG 2.88-2.88 · match xPts 1.41 · advanced

Group-stage match receipts

4-2 vs CroatiaxG 3.20-0.70 · xPts 2.65 · Δ +0.35
0-0 vs GhanaxG 1.36-0.17 · xPts 2.33 · Δ -1.33
2-0 vs PanamaxG 1.56-0.66 · xPts 2.03 · Δ +0.97

Schedule context

England are +4.59 xGD through 3 xG matches against opponents averaging 30.3/48 in the World Cup field and FIFA #40.7 globally; led xG against a lighter opponent field.

Group	Group L · 1st in group
Knockout status	Eliminated Out after Match 103 vs France
Published FIFA rank	FIFA #4 · 4th of 48 World Cup teams
xG vs schedule	Avg opponent field rank 30.3 / 48 · Avg opponent FIFA #40.7 · led xG against a lighter opponent field
Group-stage played / record	3 · 2W 1D 0L
Group-stage points	7
Group-stage expected points (xPts)	7.01
Group-stage Δ (Points − xPts)	-0.01
Group-stage goals for / against	6 / 2
Group-stage xG for / against	6.12 / 1.53
Group-stage finishing (Goals − xG)	-0.12
Group-stage defensive luck (xGA − GA)	-0.47

Where England sit on the total xG luck quadrant

Where England sit across all xG-backed matches so far — finishing luck (goals − xG) across, defensive luck (xGA − goals conceded) up; the crosshair is zero, exactly as the chances suggest. On the balance of play they are clinical but leaky.

See England on the full interactive luck quadrant →

Best and worst group-stage xG matches

Best xG performance

England 4–2 Croatia

England had their strongest chance profile against Croatia, winning the xG battle 3.20–0.70.

Most unlucky result

England vs Ghana

England took 1 point from 2.33 xPts (Δ -1.33).

Most fortunate result

England vs Panama

England took 3 points from 2.03 xPts (Δ +0.97).

Group-stage match by match

Group-stage match-by-match luck — points taken minus expected points (xPts) each game. Green = took more than the chances deserved, red = deserved more.

Date	Match	Score	Group xG	xPts	Δ
17 June	v Croatia	4–2	3.20–0.70	2.65	+0.35
23 June	v Ghana	0–0	1.36–0.17	2.33	-1.33
27 June	@ Panama	2–0	1.56–0.66	2.03	+0.97

Δ here is per group-stage match: the points England took that game minus their expected points (xPts) for it. Negative = robbed, positive = fortunate.

Knockout match by match

Date	Match	Score	Knockout xG	Match xPts	Verdict
1 July	v DR Congo	2–1	2.16–0.77	2.27	England advanced with an xG edge (2.16–0.77 xG), winning 2–1.
5 July	@ Mexico	3–2	1.61–1.88	1.22	England advanced from a balanced knockout game 2–3 (1.88–1.61 xG).
11 July	@ Norway	2–1	1.04–0.68	1.63	England advanced from a balanced knockout game 1–2 (0.68–1.04 xG).
15 July	v Argentina	1–2	0.53–1.59	0.61	Argentina advanced with an xG edge (1.59–0.53 xG), winning 1–2.
18 July	@ France	6–4	2.88–2.88	1.41	England advanced from a balanced knockout game 4–6 (2.88–2.88 xG).

Knockout rows are not added to group points or group-stage xPts. The score decides advancement; match xPts is chance-profile context.

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