How lucky or unlucky were England in the World Cup 2026 group stage?

Group-stage totals: 7 points from 4.35 xPts (points luck +2.65) and 2 goals conceded from 0.83 xGA (defensive luck -1.17). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how England's group-stage luck built game by game.

Where did England finish in Group L?

England finished first in Group L with 7 points from 4.35 group-stage xPts (Δ +2.65).

What are England's group, knockout and total xG numbers?

England have 2.92 group-stage xGF and 0.83 group-stage xGA, plus 8.22 knockout xGF and 7.80 knockout xGA. Total: 11.14 xGF, 8.63 xGA.

What was England's best xG match?

England's highest-xGF match was 6–4 vs France: 2.88 xG for and 2.88 xG against.

England at the 2026 World Cup

Eliminated

England advanced from Match 92 against Mexico. Mexico 2–3 England; Mexico 1.88–1.61 England xG.

England have 7 points from 4.35 xPts, with group-stage results running ahead of the chances.

Next for England

Knockout result

England vs Mexico

Match 92 (Round of 16) result page with score, match xG and advancement context.

Latest xG match

6–4 vs France

Knockout stage · xG 2.88-2.88 · advanced

Group table

Group L finish

7 points from 4.35 group-stage xPts. Official group rank decides qualification.

Results

All scores with xG

Every finished match, scoreline, match xG and one-line verdict.

Quick answers

EliminatedAre England eliminated from the World Cup 2026?: England advanced from Match 92 against Mexico. Mexico 2–3 England; Mexico 1.88–1.61 England xG.
Riding their luckHow lucky or unlucky were England in the World Cup 2026 group stage?: Group-stage totals: 7 points from 4.35 xPts (points luck +2.65) and 2 goals conceded from 0.83 xGA (defensive luck -1.17). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how England's group-stage luck built game by game.
Group finishWhere did England finish in Group L?: England finished first in Group L with 7 points from 4.35 group-stage xPts (Δ +2.65).
xG by stageWhat are England's group, knockout and total xG numbers?: England have 2.92 group-stage xGF and 0.83 group-stage xGA, plus 8.22 knockout xGF and 7.80 knockout xGA. Total: 11.14 xGF, 8.63 xGA.
Best xG matchWhat was England's best xG match?: England's highest-xGF match was 6–4 vs France: 2.88 xG for and 2.88 xG against.

xG by stage

Stage	Matches	Goals	xGF / xGA	xGD	xPts	Scope
Group stage	2	2–0	2.92 / 0.83	+2.09	4.36	Official group-table scope
Knockout	5	14–10	8.22 / 7.80	+0.42	7.14	Match xPts is chance context only
Total	7	16–10	11.14 / 8.63	+2.51	11.50	All completed xG-backed matches

Knockout status

EliminatedAre England eliminated from the World Cup 2026?: England advanced from Match 92 against Mexico. Mexico 2–3 England; Mexico 1.88–1.61 England xG. England vs Mexico xG guide/result.

Knockout receipts

2-1 vs DR CongoKnockout stage · xG 2.16-0.77 · match xPts 2.27 · advanced
3-2 vs MexicoKnockout stage · xG 1.61-1.88 · match xPts 1.22 · advanced
2-1 vs NorwayKnockout stage · xG 1.04-0.68 · match xPts 1.63 · advanced
1-2 vs ArgentinaKnockout stage · xG 0.53-1.59 · match xPts 0.61 · eliminated
6-4 vs FranceKnockout stage · xG 2.88-2.88 · match xPts 1.41 · advanced

Group-stage match receipts

0-0 vs GhanaxG 1.36-0.17 · xPts 2.33 · Δ -1.33
2-0 vs PanamaxG 1.56-0.66 · xPts 2.03 · Δ +0.97

Schedule context

England are +2.09 xGD through 2 xG matches against opponents averaging 39.0/48 in the World Cup field and FIFA #58.0 globally; led xG against a lighter opponent field.

Group	Group L · 1st in group
Knockout status	Eliminated Out after Match 92 vs Mexico
Published FIFA rank	FIFA #4 · 4th of 48 World Cup teams
xG vs schedule	Avg opponent field rank 39.0 / 48 · Avg opponent FIFA #58.0 · led xG against a lighter opponent field
Group-stage played / record	3 · 2W 1D 0L
Group-stage points	7
Group-stage expected points (xPts)	4.35
Group-stage Δ (Points − xPts)	+2.65
Group-stage goals for / against	6 / 2
Group-stage xG for / against	2.92 / 0.83
Group-stage finishing (Goals − xG)	+3.08
Group-stage defensive luck (xGA − GA)	-1.17

Where England sit on the total xG luck quadrant

Where England sit across all xG-backed matches so far — finishing luck (goals − xG) across, defensive luck (xGA − goals conceded) up; the crosshair is zero, exactly as the chances suggest. On the balance of play they are clinical but leaky.

See England on the full interactive luck quadrant →

Best and worst group-stage xG matches

Best xG performance

England 0–0 Ghana

England had their strongest chance profile against Ghana, winning the xG battle 1.36–0.17.

Most unlucky result

England vs Ghana

England took 1 point from 2.33 xPts (Δ -1.33).

Most fortunate result

England vs Panama

England took 3 points from 2.03 xPts (Δ +0.97).

Group-stage match by match

Group-stage match-by-match luck — points taken minus expected points (xPts) each game. Green = took more than the chances deserved, red = deserved more.

Date	Match	Score	Group xG	xPts	Δ
23 June	v Ghana	0–0	1.36–0.17	2.33	-1.33
27 June	@ Panama	2–0	1.56–0.66	2.03	+0.97

Δ here is per group-stage match: the points England took that game minus their expected points (xPts) for it. Negative = robbed, positive = fortunate.

Knockout match by match

Date	Match	Score	Knockout xG	Match xPts	Verdict
1 July	v DR Congo	2–1	2.16–0.77	2.27	England advanced with an xG edge (2.16–0.77 xG), winning 2–1.
5 July	@ Mexico	3–2	1.61–1.88	1.22	England advanced from a balanced knockout game 2–3 (1.88–1.61 xG).
11 July	@ Norway	2–1	1.04–0.68	1.63	England advanced from a balanced knockout game 1–2 (0.68–1.04 xG).
15 July	v Argentina	1–2	0.53–1.59	0.61	Argentina advanced with an xG edge (1.59–0.53 xG), winning 1–2.
18 July	@ France	6–4	2.88–2.88	1.41	England advanced from a balanced knockout game 4–6 (2.88–2.88 xG).

Knockout rows are not added to group points or group-stage xPts. The score decides advancement; match xPts is chance-profile context.

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