xG 2.80 – 0.32 · xPts 2.74 – 0.17 · Knockout stage
Spain advanced with an xG edge (2.80–0.32 xG), winning 3–0.
World Cup 2026 xG recap: 2 July
Latest available post-match xG · updated 1 October 2026, 02:21 ET · 3 matches, 8 goals, 9.85 total xG. Not live.
3 matches on 2 July, read through expected goals — the day's robberies, smash-and-grabs and standout performances below.
xG stories of the day
Most dominant display
Spain controlled the chances against Austria, 2.80–0.32 xG — a 3–0 the balance of play backs up. xG breakdown →
Game of the day
Portugal 2–1 Croatia was the day's most open contest by xG — 2.20–1.34, both ends busy. xG breakdown →
Every 2 July match
xG 2.20 – 1.34 · xPts 1.91 – 0.89 · Knockout stage
Portugal advanced with an xG edge (2.20–1.34 xG), winning 2–1.
xG 2.45 – 0.74 · xPts 2.41 – 0.44 · Knockout stage
Switzerland advanced with an xG edge (2.45–0.74 xG), winning 2–0.
More: all daily recaps · all results · standings & expected points · unluckiest teams · the xG visualizer
Luck is measured per match: actual points minus expected points (xPts), an independent Poisson model on public post-match xG. Figures may differ from other public xG sources. Directional, not official — especially early in the tournament.