How lucky or unlucky were Spain in the World Cup 2026 group stage?

Group-stage totals: 7 points from 7.28 xPts (points luck -0.28) and 0 goals conceded from 0.54 xGA (defensive luck +0.54). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Spain's group-stage luck built game by game.

Where did Spain finish in Group H?

Spain finished first in Group H with 7 points from 7.28 group-stage xPts (Δ -0.28).

What are Spain's group, knockout and total xG numbers?

Spain have 5.26 group-stage xGF and 0.54 group-stage xGA, plus 10.37 knockout xGF and 1.82 knockout xGA. Total: 15.63 xGF, 2.36 xGA.

What was Spain's best xG match?

Spain's highest-xGF match was 3–0 vs Austria: 2.80 xG for and 0.32 xG against.

Spain at the 2026 World Cup

Still alive

Spain are still alive in the World Cup 2026 knockout bracket. Their next opponent is not resolved yet.

Spain have a strong xG difference (+4.72 xGD), with the group-stage chances ahead of the scoreboard story.

Next for Spain

Next knockout guide

Spain vs Argentina

Match 104 (Final) with total xG, group-stage baseline and knockout receipts. Not a prediction.

Latest xG match

1–0 vs Argentina

Knockout stage · xG 2.29-0.22 · advanced

Group table

Group H finish

7 points from 7.28 group-stage xPts. Official group rank decides qualification.

Results

All scores with xG

Every finished match, scoreline, match xG and one-line verdict.

Quick answers

Still aliveAre Spain still in the World Cup 2026?: Spain are still alive in the World Cup 2026 knockout bracket. Their next opponent is not resolved yet.
Quietly dominantHow lucky or unlucky were Spain in the World Cup 2026 group stage?: Group-stage totals: 7 points from 7.28 xPts (points luck -0.28) and 0 goals conceded from 0.54 xGA (defensive luck +0.54). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Spain's group-stage luck built game by game.
Group finishWhere did Spain finish in Group H?: Spain finished first in Group H with 7 points from 7.28 group-stage xPts (Δ -0.28).
xG by stageWhat are Spain's group, knockout and total xG numbers?: Spain have 5.26 group-stage xGF and 0.54 group-stage xGA, plus 10.37 knockout xGF and 1.82 knockout xGA. Total: 15.63 xGF, 2.36 xGA.
Best xG matchWhat was Spain's best xG match?: Spain's highest-xGF match was 3–0 vs Austria: 2.80 xG for and 0.32 xG against.

xG by stage

Stage	Matches	Goals	xGF / xGA	xGD	xPts	Scope
Group stage	3	5–0	5.26 / 0.54	+4.72	7.27	Official group-table scope
Knockout	5	9–1	10.37 / 1.82	+8.55	12.37	Match xPts is chance context only
Total	8	14–1	15.63 / 2.36	+13.27	19.64	All completed xG-backed matches

Knockout status

Still aliveAre Spain still in the World Cup 2026?: Spain are still alive in the World Cup 2026 knockout bracket. Their next opponent is not resolved yet. Spain vs Argentina xG guide/result.

Knockout receipts

3-0 vs AustriaKnockout stage · xG 2.80-0.32 · match xPts 2.74 · advanced
1-0 vs PortugalKnockout stage · xG 1.69-0.63 · match xPts 2.13 · advanced
2-1 vs BelgiumKnockout stage · xG 1.96-0.34 · match xPts 2.48 · advanced
2-0 vs FranceKnockout stage · xG 1.63-0.31 · match xPts 2.35 · advanced
1-0 vs ArgentinaKnockout stage · xG 2.29-0.22 · match xPts 2.67 · advanced

Group-stage match receipts

0-0 vs Cape VerdexG 2.10-0.20 · xPts 2.62 · Δ -1.62
4-0 vs Saudi ArabiaxG 2.30-0.14 · xPts 2.72 · Δ +0.28
1-0 vs UruguayxG 0.86-0.20 · xPts 1.93 · Δ +1.07

Schedule context

Spain are +4.72 xGD through 3 xG matches against opponents averaging 33.3/48 in the World Cup field and FIFA #47.3 globally; led xG against a lighter opponent field.

Group	Group H · 1st in group
Knockout status	Still alive Next opponent pending
Published FIFA rank	FIFA #1 · 1st of 48 World Cup teams
xG vs schedule	Avg opponent field rank 33.3 / 48 · Avg opponent FIFA #47.3 · led xG against a lighter opponent field
Group-stage played / record	3 · 2W 1D 0L
Group-stage points	7
Group-stage expected points (xPts)	7.28
Group-stage Δ (Points − xPts)	-0.28
Group-stage goals for / against	5 / 0
Group-stage xG for / against	5.26 / 0.54
Group-stage finishing (Goals − xG)	-0.26
Group-stage defensive luck (xGA − GA)	+0.54

Where Spain sit on the total xG luck quadrant

Where Spain sit across all xG-backed matches so far — finishing luck (goals − xG) across, defensive luck (xGA − goals conceded) up; the crosshair is zero, exactly as the chances suggest. On the balance of play they are wasteful in attack but solid at the back.

See Spain on the full interactive luck quadrant →

Best and worst group-stage xG matches

Best xG performance

Spain 4–0 Saudi Arabia

Spain had their strongest chance profile against Saudi Arabia, winning the xG battle 2.30–0.14.

Most unlucky result

Spain vs Cape Verde

Spain took 1 point from 2.62 xPts (Δ -1.62).

Most fortunate result

Spain vs Uruguay

Spain took 3 points from 1.93 xPts (Δ +1.07).

Group-stage match by match

Group-stage match-by-match luck — points taken minus expected points (xPts) each game. Green = took more than the chances deserved, red = deserved more.

Date	Match	Score	Group xG	xPts	Δ
15 June	v Cape Verde	0–0	2.10–0.20	2.62	-1.62
21 June	v Saudi Arabia	4–0	2.30–0.14	2.72	+0.28
26 June	@ Uruguay	1–0	0.86–0.20	1.93	+1.07

Δ here is per group-stage match: the points Spain took that game minus their expected points (xPts) for it. Negative = robbed, positive = fortunate.

Knockout match by match

Date	Match	Score	Knockout xG	Match xPts	Verdict
2 July	v Austria	3–0	2.80–0.32	2.74	Spain advanced with an xG edge (2.80–0.32 xG), winning 3–0.
6 July	@ Portugal	1–0	1.69–0.63	2.13	Spain advanced with an xG edge (1.69–0.63 xG), winning 0–1.
10 July	v Belgium	2–1	1.96–0.34	2.48	Spain advanced with an xG edge (1.96–0.34 xG), winning 2–1.
14 July	@ France	2–0	1.63–0.31	2.35	Spain advanced with an xG edge (1.63–0.31 xG), winning 0–2.
19 July	v Argentina	1–0	2.29–0.22	2.67	Spain advanced with an xG edge (2.29–0.22 xG), winning 1–0.

Knockout rows are not added to group points or group-stage xPts. The score decides advancement; match xPts is chance-profile context.

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