xG 1.33 – 0.28 · xPts 2.21 – 0.51 · Group F
Sweden backed up their xG edge (1.33–0.28 xG), winning 5–1.
World Cup 2026 xG recap: 15 June
Latest available post-match xG · updated 17 June 2026, 07:22 UTC · 4 matches, 10 goals, 8.72 total xG. Not live.
Read through expected goals, 15 June had its winners and its victims. Spain were the most robbed — 0–0 (2.10–0.20 xG) for -1.62 points vs expected.
Biggest xG robbery
Spain vs Cape Verde
0–0 (2.10–0.20 xG) → took a draw from 2.62 expected points. Δ -1.62. xG breakdown →
Every 15 June match
xG 2.10 – 0.20 · xPts 2.62 – 0.23 · Group H
Spain created far more (2.10–0.20 xG) but were held to a 0–0 draw.
xG 1.35 – 1.08 · xPts 1.56 – 1.17 · Group G
An even contest (1.35–1.08 xG) finished 1–1.
xG 0.66 – 1.72 · xPts 0.65 – 2.12 · Group H
Uruguay created far more (0.66–1.72 xG) but were held to a 1–1 draw.
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Luck is measured per match: actual points minus expected points (xPts), an independent Poisson model on public post-match xG. Figures may differ from other public xG sources. Directional, not official — especially early in the tournament.