How lucky or unlucky were Belgium in the World Cup 2026 group stage?

Group-stage totals: 5 points from 6.63 xPts (points luck -1.63) and 2 goals conceded from 1.94 xGA (defensive luck -0.06). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Belgium's group-stage luck built game by game.

Where did Belgium finish in Group G?

Belgium finished first in Group G with 5 points from 6.63 group-stage xPts (Δ -1.63).

What are Belgium's group, knockout and total xG numbers?

Belgium have 6.78 group-stage xGF and 1.94 group-stage xGA, plus 4.09 knockout xGF and 6.17 knockout xGA. Total: 10.87 xGF, 8.11 xGA.

What was Belgium's best xG match?

Belgium's highest-xGF match was 5–1 vs New Zealand: 3.64 xG for and 0.24 xG against.

Belgium at the 2026 World Cup

Eliminated

Belgium are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 98 against Spain. Spain 2–1 Belgium; Spain 1.96–0.34 Belgium xG.

Belgium have 5 points from 6.63 xPts, a clear group-stage case of results trailing the chances.

Next for Belgium

Knockout result

Belgium vs Spain

Match 98 (Quarter-final) result page with score, match xG and advancement context.

Latest xG match

1–2 vs Spain

Knockout stage · xG 0.34-1.96 · eliminated

Group table

Group G finish

5 points from 6.63 group-stage xPts. Official group rank decides qualification.

Results

All scores with xG

Every finished match, scoreline, match xG and one-line verdict.

Quick answers

EliminatedAre Belgium eliminated from the World Cup 2026?: Belgium are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 98 against Spain. Spain 2–1 Belgium; Spain 1.96–0.34 Belgium xG.
Deserved betterHow lucky or unlucky were Belgium in the World Cup 2026 group stage?: Group-stage totals: 5 points from 6.63 xPts (points luck -1.63) and 2 goals conceded from 1.94 xGA (defensive luck -0.06). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Belgium's group-stage luck built game by game.
Group finishWhere did Belgium finish in Group G?: Belgium finished first in Group G with 5 points from 6.63 group-stage xPts (Δ -1.63).
xG by stageWhat are Belgium's group, knockout and total xG numbers?: Belgium have 6.78 group-stage xGF and 1.94 group-stage xGA, plus 4.09 knockout xGF and 6.17 knockout xGA. Total: 10.87 xGF, 8.11 xGA.
Best xG matchWhat was Belgium's best xG match?: Belgium's highest-xGF match was 5–1 vs New Zealand: 3.64 xG for and 0.24 xG against.

xG by stage

Stage	Matches	Goals	xGF / xGA	xGD	xPts	Scope
Group stage	3	6–2	6.78 / 1.94	+4.84	6.63	Official group-table scope
Knockout	3	8–5	4.09 / 6.17	-2.08	3.21	Match xPts is chance context only
Total	6	14–7	10.87 / 8.11	+2.76	9.84	All completed xG-backed matches

Knockout status

EliminatedAre Belgium eliminated from the World Cup 2026?: Belgium are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 98 against Spain. Spain 2–1 Belgium; Spain 1.96–0.34 Belgium xG. Belgium vs Spain xG guide/result.

Knockout receipts

3-2 vs SenegalKnockout stage · xG 1.74-3.58 · match xPts 0.58 · advanced
4-1 vs USAKnockout stage · xG 2.01-0.63 · match xPts 2.29 · advanced
1-2 vs SpainKnockout stage · xG 0.34-1.96 · match xPts 0.34 · eliminated

Group-stage match receipts

1-1 vs EgyptxG 1.35-1.08 · xPts 1.56 · Δ -0.56
0-0 vs IranxG 1.79-0.62 · xPts 2.19 · Δ -1.19
5-1 vs New ZealandxG 3.64-0.24 · xPts 2.88 · Δ +0.12

Featured story

BREAKING:

Belgium advanced despite Senegal's 3.58-1.74 xG edge

Belgium won 3–2; Senegal created 3.58 xG to Belgium's 1.74. Late-game heroics for Belgium, brutal xG exit for Senegal.

Schedule context

Belgium are +4.84 xGD through 3 xG matches against opponents averaging 29.7/48 in the World Cup field and FIFA #44.0 globally; led xG against a mid-ranked opponent field.

Group	Group G · 1st in group
Knockout status	Eliminated Out after Match 98 vs Spain
Published FIFA rank	FIFA #8 · 8th of 48 World Cup teams
xG vs schedule	Avg opponent field rank 29.7 / 48 · Avg opponent FIFA #44.0 · led xG against a mid-ranked opponent field
Group-stage played / record	3 · 1W 2D 0L
Group-stage points	5
Group-stage expected points (xPts)	6.63
Group-stage Δ (Points − xPts)	-1.63
Group-stage goals for / against	6 / 2
Group-stage xG for / against	6.78 / 1.94
Group-stage finishing (Goals − xG)	-0.78
Group-stage defensive luck (xGA − GA)	-0.06

Where Belgium sit on the total xG luck quadrant

Where Belgium sit across all xG-backed matches so far — finishing luck (goals − xG) across, defensive luck (xGA − goals conceded) up; the crosshair is zero, exactly as the chances suggest. On the balance of play they are riding their luck.

See Belgium on the full interactive luck quadrant →

Best and worst group-stage xG matches

Best xG performance

Belgium 5–1 New Zealand

Belgium had their strongest chance profile against New Zealand, winning the xG battle 3.64–0.24.

Most unlucky result

Belgium vs Iran

Belgium took 1 point from 2.19 xPts (Δ -1.19).

Group-stage match by match

Group-stage match-by-match luck — points taken minus expected points (xPts) each game. Green = took more than the chances deserved, red = deserved more.

Date	Match	Score	Group xG	xPts	Δ
15 June	v Egypt	1–1	1.35–1.08	1.56	-0.56
21 June	v Iran	0–0	1.79–0.62	2.19	-1.19
26 June	@ New Zealand	5–1	3.64–0.24	2.88	+0.12

Δ here is per group-stage match: the points Belgium took that game minus their expected points (xPts) for it. Negative = robbed, positive = fortunate.

Knockout match by match

Date	Match	Score	Knockout xG	Match xPts	Verdict
1 July	v Senegal	3–2	1.74–3.58	0.58	Senegal had the stronger chance profile (3.58–1.74 xG) but were knocked out 3–2; Belgium advanced against the xG run.
6 July	@ USA	4–1	2.01–0.63	2.29	Belgium advanced with an xG edge (2.01–0.63 xG), winning 1–4.
10 July	@ Spain	1–2	0.34–1.96	0.34	Spain advanced with an xG edge (1.96–0.34 xG), winning 2–1.

Knockout rows are not added to group points or group-stage xPts. The score decides advancement; match xPts is chance-profile context.

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