How lucky or unlucky were Iran in the World Cup 2026 group stage?

Group-stage totals: 3 points from 4.27 xPts (points luck -1.27) and 3 goals conceded from 3.87 xGA (defensive luck +0.87). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Iran's group-stage luck built game by game.

What are Iran's group, knockout and total xG numbers?

Iran have 4.09 group-stage xGF and 3.87 group-stage xGA. No knockout xG is recorded for them yet.

What was Iran's best xG match?

Iran's highest-xGF match was 1–1 vs Egypt: 1.97 xG for and 0.84 xG against.

Iran at the 2026 World Cup

Group exit

Iran did not qualify for the World Cup 2026 knockout stage. Iran finished third in Group G with 3 points from 4.27 group-stage xPts (Δ -1.27).

Iran had 3 goals from 4.09 xG (finishing luck -1.09) and 3 points from 4.27 xPts (points luck -1.27) in the World Cup 2026 group stage.

Next for Iran

Latest xG match

1–1 vs Egypt

Group G · xG 1.97-0.84

Group table

Group G finish

3 points from 4.27 group-stage xPts. Official group rank decides qualification.

Results

All scores with xG

Every finished match, scoreline, match xG and one-line verdict.

Quick answers

Group exitDid Iran qualify for the World Cup 2026 knockouts?: Iran did not qualify for the World Cup 2026 knockout stage. Iran finished third in Group G with 3 points from 4.27 group-stage xPts (Δ -1.27).
Group-stage verdictHow lucky or unlucky were Iran in the World Cup 2026 group stage?: Group-stage totals: 3 points from 4.27 xPts (points luck -1.27) and 3 goals conceded from 3.87 xGA (defensive luck +0.87). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Iran's group-stage luck built game by game.
Group finishWhere did Iran finish in Group G?: Iran finished third in Group G with 3 points from 4.27 group-stage xPts (Δ -1.27).
xG by stageWhat are Iran's group, knockout and total xG numbers?: Iran have 4.09 group-stage xGF and 3.87 group-stage xGA. No knockout xG is recorded for them yet.
Best xG matchWhat was Iran's best xG match?: Iran's highest-xGF match was 1–1 vs Egypt: 1.97 xG for and 0.84 xG against.

xG by stage

Stage	Matches	Goals	xGF / xGA	xGD	xPts	Scope
Group stage	3	3–3	4.09 / 3.87	+0.22	4.26	Official group-table scope
Total	3	3–3	4.09 / 3.87	+0.22	4.26	All completed xG-backed matches

Group-stage match receipts

2-2 vs New ZealandxG 1.50-1.24 · xPts 1.55 · Δ -0.55
0-0 vs BelgiumxG 0.62-1.79 · xPts 0.59 · Δ +0.41
1-1 vs EgyptxG 1.97-0.84 · xPts 2.12 · Δ -1.12

Schedule context

Iran are +0.22 xGD through 3 xG matches against opponents averaging 25.7/48 in the World Cup field and FIFA #39.3 globally; level on xG against a mid-ranked opponent field.

Group	Group G · 3rd in group
Knockout status	Group exit Group-stage exit
Published FIFA rank	FIFA #22 · 20th of 48 World Cup teams
xG vs schedule	Avg opponent field rank 25.7 / 48 · Avg opponent FIFA #39.3 · level on xG against a mid-ranked opponent field
Group-stage played / record	3 · 0W 3D 0L
Group-stage points	3
Group-stage expected points (xPts)	4.27
Group-stage Δ (Points − xPts)	-1.27
Group-stage goals for / against	3 / 3
Group-stage xG for / against	4.09 / 3.87
Group-stage finishing (Goals − xG)	-1.09
Group-stage defensive luck (xGA − GA)	+0.87

Where Iran sit on the total xG luck quadrant

Where Iran sit across all xG-backed matches so far — finishing luck (goals − xG) across, defensive luck (xGA − goals conceded) up; the crosshair is zero, exactly as the chances suggest. On the balance of play they are wasteful in attack but solid at the back.

See Iran on the full interactive luck quadrant →

Best and worst group-stage xG matches

Best xG performance

Iran 1–1 Egypt

Iran had their strongest chance profile against Egypt, winning the xG battle 1.97–0.84.

Most unlucky result

Iran vs Egypt

Iran took 1 point from 2.12 xPts (Δ -1.12).

Group-stage match by match

Group-stage match-by-match luck — points taken minus expected points (xPts) each game. Green = took more than the chances deserved, red = deserved more.

Date	Match	Score	Group xG	xPts	Δ
15 June	v New Zealand	2–2	1.50–1.24	1.55	-0.55
21 June	@ Belgium	0–0	0.62–1.79	0.59	+0.41
26 June	@ Egypt	1–1	1.97–0.84	2.12	-1.12

Δ here is per group-stage match: the points Iran took that game minus their expected points (xPts) for it. Negative = robbed, positive = fortunate.

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