How lucky or unlucky were Saudi Arabia in the World Cup 2026 group stage?

Group-stage totals: 2 points from 1.39 xPts (points luck +0.61) and 5 goals conceded from 5.41 xGA (defensive luck +0.41). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Saudi Arabia's group-stage luck built game by game.

What are Saudi Arabia's group, knockout and total xG numbers?

Saudi Arabia have 1.19 group-stage xGF and 5.41 group-stage xGA. No knockout xG is recorded for them yet.

What was Saudi Arabia's best xG match?

Saudi Arabia's highest-xGF match was 1–1 vs Uruguay: 0.66 xG for and 1.72 xG against.

Saudi Arabia at the 2026 World Cup

Group exit

Saudi Arabia did not qualify for the World Cup 2026 knockout stage. Saudi Arabia finished fourth in Group H with 2 points from 1.39 group-stage xPts (Δ +0.61).

Saudi Arabia had 1 goal from 1.19 xG (finishing luck -0.19) and 2 points from 1.39 xPts (points luck +0.61) in the World Cup 2026 group stage.

Next for Saudi Arabia

Latest xG match

0–0 vs Cape Verde

Group H · xG 0.39-1.39

Group table

Group H finish

2 points from 1.39 group-stage xPts. Official group rank decides qualification.

Results

All scores with xG

Every finished match, scoreline, match xG and one-line verdict.

Quick answers

Group exitDid Saudi Arabia qualify for the World Cup 2026 knockouts?: Saudi Arabia did not qualify for the World Cup 2026 knockout stage. Saudi Arabia finished fourth in Group H with 2 points from 1.39 group-stage xPts (Δ +0.61).
Group-stage verdictHow lucky or unlucky were Saudi Arabia in the World Cup 2026 group stage?: Group-stage totals: 2 points from 1.39 xPts (points luck +0.61) and 5 goals conceded from 5.41 xGA (defensive luck +0.41). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Saudi Arabia's group-stage luck built game by game.
Group finishWhere did Saudi Arabia finish in Group H?: Saudi Arabia finished fourth in Group H with 2 points from 1.39 group-stage xPts (Δ +0.61).
xG by stageWhat are Saudi Arabia's group, knockout and total xG numbers?: Saudi Arabia have 1.19 group-stage xGF and 5.41 group-stage xGA. No knockout xG is recorded for them yet.
Best xG matchWhat was Saudi Arabia's best xG match?: Saudi Arabia's highest-xGF match was 1–1 vs Uruguay: 0.66 xG for and 1.72 xG against.

xG by stage

Stage	Matches	Goals	xGF / xGA	xGD	xPts	Scope
Group stage	3	1–5	1.19 / 5.41	-4.22	1.39	Official group-table scope
Total	3	1–5	1.19 / 5.41	-4.22	1.39	All completed xG-backed matches

Group-stage match receipts

1-1 vs UruguayxG 0.66-1.72 · xPts 0.65 · Δ +0.35
0-4 vs SpainxG 0.14-2.30 · xPts 0.16 · Δ -0.16
0-0 vs Cape VerdexG 0.39-1.39 · xPts 0.58 · Δ +0.42

Featured story

Group H story

FIFA #20 Uruguay missed the Round of 32

Uruguay were eliminated despite 5.05 xPts, while Cape Verde reached the Round of 32 on three draws.

Schedule context

Saudi Arabia are -4.22 xGD through 3 xG matches against opponents averaging 21.0/48 in the World Cup field and FIFA #28.3 globally; trailed xG against a mid-ranked opponent field.

Group	Group H · 4th in group
Knockout status	Group exit Group-stage exit
Published FIFA rank	FIFA #58 · 38th of 48 World Cup teams
xG vs schedule	Avg opponent field rank 21.0 / 48 · Avg opponent FIFA #28.3 · trailed xG against a mid-ranked opponent field
Group-stage played / record	3 · 0W 2D 1L
Group-stage points	2
Group-stage expected points (xPts)	1.39
Group-stage Δ (Points − xPts)	+0.61
Group-stage goals for / against	1 / 5
Group-stage xG for / against	1.19 / 5.41
Group-stage finishing (Goals − xG)	-0.19
Group-stage defensive luck (xGA − GA)	+0.41

Where Saudi Arabia sit on the total xG luck quadrant

Where Saudi Arabia sit across all xG-backed matches so far — finishing luck (goals − xG) across, defensive luck (xGA − goals conceded) up; the crosshair is zero, exactly as the chances suggest. On the balance of play they are wasteful in attack but solid at the back.

See Saudi Arabia on the full interactive luck quadrant →

Best and worst group-stage xG matches

Best xG performance

Saudi Arabia 0–0 Cape Verde

Saudi Arabia had their strongest chance profile against Cape Verde, winning the xG battle 0.39–1.39.

Group-stage match by match

Group-stage match-by-match luck — points taken minus expected points (xPts) each game. Green = took more than the chances deserved, red = deserved more.

Date	Match	Score	Group xG	xPts	Δ
15 June	v Uruguay	1–1	0.66–1.72	0.65	+0.35
21 June	@ Spain	0–4	0.14–2.30	0.16	-0.16
26 June	@ Cape Verde	0–0	0.39–1.39	0.58	+0.42

Δ here is per group-stage match: the points Saudi Arabia took that game minus their expected points (xPts) for it. Negative = robbed, positive = fortunate.

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