How lucky or unlucky were Portugal in the World Cup 2026 group stage?

Group-stage totals: 5 points from 4.72 xPts (points luck +0.28) and 1 goal conceded from 2.81 xGA (defensive luck +1.81). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Portugal's group-stage luck built game by game.

Where did Portugal finish in Group K?

Portugal finished second in Group K with 5 points from 4.72 group-stage xPts (Δ +0.28).

What are Portugal's group, knockout and total xG numbers?

Portugal have 4.19 group-stage xGF and 2.81 group-stage xGA, plus 2.83 knockout xGF and 3.03 knockout xGA. Total: 7.02 xGF, 5.84 xGA.

What was Portugal's best xG match?

Portugal's highest-xGF match was 5–0 vs Uzbekistan: 2.61 xG for and 0.24 xG against.

Portugal at the 2026 World Cup

Eliminated

Portugal are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 93 against Spain. Portugal 0–1 Spain; Portugal 0.63–1.69 Spain xG.

Portugal have 6 goals from 4.19 xG, a clear clinical-finishing group-stage read.

Next for Portugal

Knockout result

Portugal vs Spain

Match 93 (Round of 16) result page with score, match xG and advancement context.

Latest xG match

0–1 vs Spain

Knockout stage · xG 0.63-1.69 · eliminated

Group table

Group K finish

5 points from 4.72 group-stage xPts. Official group rank decides qualification.

Results

All scores with xG

Every finished match, scoreline, match xG and one-line verdict.

Quick answers

EliminatedAre Portugal eliminated from the World Cup 2026?: Portugal are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 93 against Spain. Portugal 0–1 Spain; Portugal 0.63–1.69 Spain xG.
Clinical finishingHow lucky or unlucky were Portugal in the World Cup 2026 group stage?: Group-stage totals: 5 points from 4.72 xPts (points luck +0.28) and 1 goal conceded from 2.81 xGA (defensive luck +1.81). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Portugal's group-stage luck built game by game.
Group finishWhere did Portugal finish in Group K?: Portugal finished second in Group K with 5 points from 4.72 group-stage xPts (Δ +0.28).
xG by stageWhat are Portugal's group, knockout and total xG numbers?: Portugal have 4.19 group-stage xGF and 2.81 group-stage xGA, plus 2.83 knockout xGF and 3.03 knockout xGA. Total: 7.02 xGF, 5.84 xGA.
Best xG matchWhat was Portugal's best xG match?: Portugal's highest-xGF match was 5–0 vs Uzbekistan: 2.61 xG for and 0.24 xG against.

xG by stage

Stage	Matches	Goals	xGF / xGA	xGD	xPts	Scope
Group stage	3	6–1	4.19 / 2.81	+1.38	4.72	Official group-table scope
Knockout	2	2–2	2.83 / 3.03	-0.20	2.55	Match xPts is chance context only
Total	5	8–3	7.02 / 5.84	+1.18	7.27	All completed xG-backed matches

Knockout status

EliminatedAre Portugal eliminated from the World Cup 2026?: Portugal are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 93 against Spain. Portugal 0–1 Spain; Portugal 0.63–1.69 Spain xG. Portugal vs Spain xG guide/result.

Knockout receipts

2-1 vs CroatiaKnockout stage · xG 2.20-1.34 · match xPts 1.91 · advanced
0-1 vs SpainKnockout stage · xG 0.63-1.69 · match xPts 0.64 · eliminated

Group-stage match receipts

1-1 vs DR CongoxG 0.65-0.87 · xPts 1.13 · Δ -0.13
5-0 vs UzbekistanxG 2.61-0.24 · xPts 2.74 · Δ +0.26
0-0 vs ColombiaxG 0.93-1.70 · xPts 0.85 · Δ +0.15

Schedule context

Portugal are +1.38 xGD through 3 xG matches against opponents averaging 27.7/48 in the World Cup field and FIFA #37.3 globally; led xG against a mid-ranked opponent field.

Group	Group K · 2nd in group
Knockout status	Eliminated Out after Match 93 vs Spain
Published FIFA rank	FIFA #7 · 7th of 48 World Cup teams
xG vs schedule	Avg opponent field rank 27.7 / 48 · Avg opponent FIFA #37.3 · led xG against a mid-ranked opponent field
Group-stage played / record	3 · 1W 2D 0L
Group-stage points	5
Group-stage expected points (xPts)	4.72
Group-stage Δ (Points − xPts)	+0.28
Group-stage goals for / against	6 / 1
Group-stage xG for / against	4.19 / 2.81
Group-stage finishing (Goals − xG)	+1.81
Group-stage defensive luck (xGA − GA)	+1.81

Where Portugal sit on the total xG luck quadrant

Where Portugal sit across all xG-backed matches so far — finishing luck (goals − xG) across, defensive luck (xGA − goals conceded) up; the crosshair is zero, exactly as the chances suggest. On the balance of play they are riding their luck.

See Portugal on the full interactive luck quadrant →

Best and worst group-stage xG matches

Best xG performance

Portugal 5–0 Uzbekistan

Portugal had their strongest chance profile against Uzbekistan, winning the xG battle 2.61–0.24.

Group-stage match by match

Group-stage match-by-match luck — points taken minus expected points (xPts) each game. Green = took more than the chances deserved, red = deserved more.

Date	Match	Score	Group xG	xPts	Δ
17 June	v DR Congo	1–1	0.65–0.87	1.13	-0.13
23 June	v Uzbekistan	5–0	2.61–0.24	2.74	+0.26
27 June	@ Colombia	0–0	0.93–1.70	0.85	+0.15

Δ here is per group-stage match: the points Portugal took that game minus their expected points (xPts) for it. Negative = robbed, positive = fortunate.

Knockout match by match

Date	Match	Score	Knockout xG	Match xPts	Verdict
2 July	v Croatia	2–1	2.20–1.34	1.91	Portugal advanced with an xG edge (2.20–1.34 xG), winning 2–1.
6 July	v Spain	0–1	0.63–1.69	0.64	Spain advanced with an xG edge (1.69–0.63 xG), winning 0–1.

Knockout rows are not added to group points or group-stage xPts. The score decides advancement; match xPts is chance-profile context.

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