How lucky or unlucky were Senegal in the World Cup 2026 group stage?

Group-stage totals: 3 points from 4.50 xPts (points luck -1.50) and 6 goals conceded from 4.13 xGA (defensive luck -1.87). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Senegal's group-stage luck built game by game.

Where did Senegal finish in Group I?

Senegal finished third in Group I with 3 points from 4.50 group-stage xPts (Δ -1.50).

What are Senegal's group, knockout and total xG numbers?

Senegal have 5.26 group-stage xGF and 4.13 group-stage xGA, plus 3.58 knockout xGF and 1.74 knockout xGA. Total: 8.84 xGF, 5.87 xGA.

What was Senegal's best xG match?

Senegal's highest-xGF match was 2–3 vs Belgium: 3.58 xG for and 1.74 xG against.

Senegal at the 2026 World Cup

Eliminated

Senegal are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 82 against Belgium. Belgium 3–2 Senegal; Belgium 1.74–3.58 Senegal xG.

Senegal have 3 points from 4.50 xPts, a clear group-stage case of results trailing the chances.

Next for Senegal

Knockout result

Senegal vs Belgium

Match 82 (Round of 32) result page with score, match xG and advancement context.

Latest xG match

2–3 vs Belgium

Knockout stage · xG 3.58-1.74 · eliminated

Group table

Group I finish

3 points from 4.50 group-stage xPts. Official group rank decides qualification.

Results

All scores with xG

Every finished match, scoreline, match xG and one-line verdict.

Quick answers

EliminatedAre Senegal eliminated from the World Cup 2026?: Senegal are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 82 against Belgium. Belgium 3–2 Senegal; Belgium 1.74–3.58 Senegal xG.
Deserved betterHow lucky or unlucky were Senegal in the World Cup 2026 group stage?: Group-stage totals: 3 points from 4.50 xPts (points luck -1.50) and 6 goals conceded from 4.13 xGA (defensive luck -1.87). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Senegal's group-stage luck built game by game.
Group finishWhere did Senegal finish in Group I?: Senegal finished third in Group I with 3 points from 4.50 group-stage xPts (Δ -1.50).
xG by stageWhat are Senegal's group, knockout and total xG numbers?: Senegal have 5.26 group-stage xGF and 4.13 group-stage xGA, plus 3.58 knockout xGF and 1.74 knockout xGA. Total: 8.84 xGF, 5.87 xGA.
Best xG matchWhat was Senegal's best xG match?: Senegal's highest-xGF match was 2–3 vs Belgium: 3.58 xG for and 1.74 xG against.

xG by stage

Stage	Matches	Goals	xGF / xGA	xGD	xPts	Scope
Group stage	3	8–6	5.26 / 4.13	+1.13	4.50	Official group-table scope
Knockout	1	2–3	3.58 / 1.74	+1.84	2.29	Match xPts is chance context only
Total	4	10–9	8.84 / 5.87	+2.97	6.79	All completed xG-backed matches

Knockout status

EliminatedAre Senegal eliminated from the World Cup 2026?: Senegal are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 82 against Belgium. Belgium 3–2 Senegal; Belgium 1.74–3.58 Senegal xG. Senegal vs Belgium xG guide/result.

Knockout receipts

2-3 vs BelgiumKnockout stage · xG 3.58-1.74 · match xPts 2.29 · eliminated

Group-stage match receipts

1-3 vs FrancexG 0.53-1.79 · xPts 0.53 · Δ -0.53
2-3 vs NorwayxG 1.72-2.20 · xPts 1.12 · Δ -1.12
5-0 vs IraqxG 3.01-0.14 · xPts 2.85 · Δ +0.15

Featured story

BREAKING:

Belgium advanced despite Senegal's 3.58-1.74 xG edge

Belgium won 3–2; Senegal created 3.58 xG to Belgium's 1.74. Late-game heroics for Belgium, brutal xG exit for Senegal.

Schedule context

Senegal are +1.13 xGD through 3 xG matches against opponents averaging 21.0/48 in the World Cup field and FIFA #28.3 globally; led xG against a mid-ranked opponent field.

Group	Group I · 3rd in group
Knockout status	Eliminated Out after Match 82 vs Belgium
Published FIFA rank	FIFA #18 · 17th of 48 World Cup teams
xG vs schedule	Avg opponent field rank 21.0 / 48 · Avg opponent FIFA #28.3 · led xG against a mid-ranked opponent field
Group-stage played / record	3 · 1W 0D 2L
Group-stage points	3
Group-stage expected points (xPts)	4.50
Group-stage Δ (Points − xPts)	-1.50
Group-stage goals for / against	8 / 6
Group-stage xG for / against	5.26 / 4.13
Group-stage finishing (Goals − xG)	+2.74
Group-stage defensive luck (xGA − GA)	-1.87

Where Senegal sit on the total xG luck quadrant

Where Senegal sit across all xG-backed matches so far — finishing luck (goals − xG) across, defensive luck (xGA − goals conceded) up; the crosshair is zero, exactly as the chances suggest. On the balance of play they are clinical but leaky.

See Senegal on the full interactive luck quadrant →

Best and worst group-stage xG matches

Best xG performance

Senegal 5–0 Iraq

Senegal had their strongest chance profile against Iraq, winning the xG battle 3.01–0.14.

Most unlucky result

Senegal vs Norway

Senegal took 0 points from 1.12 xPts (Δ -1.12).

Group-stage match by match

Group-stage match-by-match luck — points taken minus expected points (xPts) each game. Green = took more than the chances deserved, red = deserved more.

Date	Match	Score	Group xG	xPts	Δ
16 June	@ France	1–3	0.53–1.79	0.53	-0.53
22 June	@ Norway	2–3	1.72–2.20	1.12	-1.12
26 June	v Iraq	5–0	3.01–0.14	2.85	+0.15

Δ here is per group-stage match: the points Senegal took that game minus their expected points (xPts) for it. Negative = robbed, positive = fortunate.

Knockout match by match

Date	Match	Score	Knockout xG	Match xPts	Verdict
1 July	@ Belgium	2–3	3.58–1.74	2.29	Senegal had the stronger chance profile (3.58–1.74 xG) but were knocked out 3–2; Belgium advanced against the xG run.

Knockout rows are not added to group points or group-stage xPts. The score decides advancement; match xPts is chance-profile context.

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