How lucky or unlucky were Norway in the World Cup 2026 group stage?

Group-stage totals: 6 points from 5.59 xPts (points luck +0.41) and 7 goals conceded from 4.02 xGA (defensive luck -2.98). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Norway's group-stage luck built game by game.

Where did Norway finish in Group I?

Norway finished second in Group I with 6 points from 5.59 group-stage xPts (Δ +0.41).

What are Norway's group, knockout and total xG numbers?

Norway have 6.42 group-stage xGF and 4.02 group-stage xGA, plus 3.63 knockout xGF and 5.14 knockout xGA. Total: 10.05 xGF, 9.16 xGA.

What was Norway's best xG match?

Norway's highest-xGF match was 4–1 vs Iraq: 2.52 xG for and 0.80 xG against.

Norway at the 2026 World Cup

Eliminated

Norway advanced from Match 78 against Ivory Coast. Ivory Coast 1–2 Norway; Ivory Coast 1.49–1.90 Norway xG.

Norway have 8 goals from 6.42 xG, a clear clinical-finishing group-stage read.

Next for Norway

Knockout result

Norway vs Ivory Coast

Match 78 (Round of 32) result page with score, match xG and advancement context.

Latest xG match

1–2 vs England

Knockout stage · xG 0.68-1.04 · eliminated

Group table

Group I finish

6 points from 5.59 group-stage xPts. Official group rank decides qualification.

Results

All scores with xG

Every finished match, scoreline, match xG and one-line verdict.

Quick answers

EliminatedAre Norway eliminated from the World Cup 2026?: Norway advanced from Match 78 against Ivory Coast. Ivory Coast 1–2 Norway; Ivory Coast 1.49–1.90 Norway xG.
Clinical finishingHow lucky or unlucky were Norway in the World Cup 2026 group stage?: Group-stage totals: 6 points from 5.59 xPts (points luck +0.41) and 7 goals conceded from 4.02 xGA (defensive luck -2.98). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Norway's group-stage luck built game by game.
Group finishWhere did Norway finish in Group I?: Norway finished second in Group I with 6 points from 5.59 group-stage xPts (Δ +0.41).
xG by stageWhat are Norway's group, knockout and total xG numbers?: Norway have 6.42 group-stage xGF and 4.02 group-stage xGA, plus 3.63 knockout xGF and 5.14 knockout xGA. Total: 10.05 xGF, 9.16 xGA.
Best xG matchWhat was Norway's best xG match?: Norway's highest-xGF match was 4–1 vs Iraq: 2.52 xG for and 0.80 xG against.

xG by stage

Stage	Matches	Goals	xGF / xGA	xGD	xPts	Scope
Group stage	3	8–7	6.42 / 4.02	+2.40	5.59	Official group-table scope
Knockout	3	5–4	3.63 / 5.14	-1.51	3.23	Match xPts is chance context only
Total	6	13–11	10.05 / 9.16	+0.89	8.82	All completed xG-backed matches

Knockout status

EliminatedAre Norway eliminated from the World Cup 2026?: Norway advanced from Match 78 against Ivory Coast. Ivory Coast 1–2 Norway; Ivory Coast 1.49–1.90 Norway xG. Norway vs Ivory Coast xG guide/result.

Knockout receipts

2-1 vs Ivory CoastKnockout stage · xG 1.90-1.49 · match xPts 1.64 · advanced
2-1 vs BrazilKnockout stage · xG 1.05-2.61 · match xPts 0.55 · advanced
1-2 vs EnglandKnockout stage · xG 0.68-1.04 · match xPts 1.04 · eliminated

Group-stage match receipts

4-1 vs IraqxG 2.52-0.80 · xPts 2.40 · Δ +0.60
3-2 vs SenegalxG 2.20-1.72 · xPts 1.68 · Δ +1.32
1-4 vs FrancexG 1.70-1.50 · xPts 1.51 · Δ -1.51

Featured story

BREAKING:

Brazil eliminated despite 2.61-1.05 xG edge

Norway beat Brazil 2-1; Brazil had the stronger chance profile, but Norway advanced from a lower-xG night.

Schedule context

Norway are +2.40 xGD through 3 xG matches against opponents averaging 20.7/48 in the World Cup field and FIFA #28.0 globally; led xG against a mid-ranked opponent field.

Group	Group I · 2nd in group
Knockout status	Eliminated Out after Match 78 vs Ivory Coast
Published FIFA rank	FIFA #19 · 18th of 48 World Cup teams
xG vs schedule	Avg opponent field rank 20.7 / 48 · Avg opponent FIFA #28.0 · led xG against a mid-ranked opponent field
Group-stage played / record	3 · 2W 0D 1L
Group-stage points	6
Group-stage expected points (xPts)	5.59
Group-stage Δ (Points − xPts)	+0.41
Group-stage goals for / against	8 / 7
Group-stage xG for / against	6.42 / 4.02
Group-stage finishing (Goals − xG)	+1.58
Group-stage defensive luck (xGA − GA)	-2.98

Where Norway sit on the total xG luck quadrant

Where Norway sit across all xG-backed matches so far — finishing luck (goals − xG) across, defensive luck (xGA − goals conceded) up; the crosshair is zero, exactly as the chances suggest. On the balance of play they are clinical but leaky.

See Norway on the full interactive luck quadrant →

Best and worst group-stage xG matches

Best xG performance

Norway 4–1 Iraq

Norway had their strongest chance profile against Iraq, winning the xG battle 2.52–0.80.

Most unlucky result

Norway vs France

Norway took 0 points from 1.51 xPts (Δ -1.51).

Most fortunate result

Norway vs Senegal

Norway took 3 points from 1.68 xPts (Δ +1.32).

Group-stage match by match

Group-stage match-by-match luck — points taken minus expected points (xPts) each game. Green = took more than the chances deserved, red = deserved more.

Date	Match	Score	Group xG	xPts	Δ
16 June	@ Iraq	4–1	2.52–0.80	2.40	+0.60
22 June	v Senegal	3–2	2.20–1.72	1.68	+1.32
26 June	v France	1–4	1.70–1.50	1.51	-1.51

Δ here is per group-stage match: the points Norway took that game minus their expected points (xPts) for it. Negative = robbed, positive = fortunate.

Knockout match by match

Date	Match	Score	Knockout xG	Match xPts	Verdict
30 June	@ Ivory Coast	2–1	1.90–1.49	1.64	Norway advanced from a balanced knockout game 1–2 (1.49–1.90 xG).
5 July	@ Brazil	2–1	1.05–2.61	0.55	Brazil had the stronger chance profile (2.61–1.05 xG) but were knocked out 1–2; Norway advanced against the xG run.
11 July	v England	1–2	0.68–1.04	1.04	England advanced from a balanced knockout game 1–2 (0.68–1.04 xG).

Knockout rows are not added to group points or group-stage xPts. The score decides advancement; match xPts is chance-profile context.

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