How lucky or unlucky were Norway in the World Cup 2026 group stage?

Group-stage totals: 6 points from 5.59 xPts (points luck +0.41) and 7 goals conceded from 4.02 xGA (defensive luck -2.98). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Norway's group-stage luck built game by game.

Where did Norway finish in Group I?

Norway finished second in Group I with 6 points from 5.59 group-stage xPts (Δ +0.41).

What are Norway's group, knockout and total xG numbers?

Norway have 6.42 group-stage xGF and 4.02 group-stage xGA, plus 3.63 knockout xGF and 5.14 knockout xGA. Total: 10.05 xGF, 9.16 xGA.

What was Norway's best xG match?

Norway's highest-xGF match was 4–1 vs Iraq: 2.52 xG for and 0.80 xG against.

Norway at the 2026 World Cup

Eliminated

Norway are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 99 against England. Norway 1–2 England; Norway 0.68–1.04 England xG.

Norway have 8 goals from 6.42 xG, a clear clinical-finishing group-stage read.

Next for Norway

Knockout result

Norway vs England

Match 99 (Quarter-final) result page with score, match xG and advancement context.

Latest xG match

1–2 vs England

Knockout stage · xG 0.68-1.04 · eliminated

Group table

Group I finish

6 points from 5.59 group-stage xPts. Official group rank decides qualification.

Results

All scores with xG

Every finished match, scoreline, match xG and one-line verdict.

Quick answers

EliminatedAre Norway eliminated from the World Cup 2026?: Norway are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 99 against England. Norway 1–2 England; Norway 0.68–1.04 England xG.
Clinical finishingHow lucky or unlucky were Norway in the World Cup 2026 group stage?: Group-stage totals: 6 points from 5.59 xPts (points luck +0.41) and 7 goals conceded from 4.02 xGA (defensive luck -2.98). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Norway's group-stage luck built game by game.
Group finishWhere did Norway finish in Group I?: Norway finished second in Group I with 6 points from 5.59 group-stage xPts (Δ +0.41).
xG by stageWhat are Norway's group, knockout and total xG numbers?: Norway have 6.42 group-stage xGF and 4.02 group-stage xGA, plus 3.63 knockout xGF and 5.14 knockout xGA. Total: 10.05 xGF, 9.16 xGA.
Best xG matchWhat was Norway's best xG match?: Norway's highest-xGF match was 4–1 vs Iraq: 2.52 xG for and 0.80 xG against.

xG by stage

Stage	Matches	Goals	xGF / xGA	xGD	xPts	Scope
Group stage	3	8–7	6.42 / 4.02	+2.40	5.59	Official group-table scope
Knockout	3	5–4	3.63 / 5.14	-1.51	3.23	Match xPts is chance context only
Total	6	13–11	10.05 / 9.16	+0.89	8.82	All completed xG-backed matches

Knockout status

EliminatedAre Norway eliminated from the World Cup 2026?: Norway are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 99 against England. Norway 1–2 England; Norway 0.68–1.04 England xG. Norway vs England xG guide/result.

Knockout receipts

2-1 vs Ivory CoastKnockout stage · xG 1.90-1.49 · match xPts 1.64 · advanced
2-1 vs BrazilKnockout stage · xG 1.05-2.61 · match xPts 0.55 · advanced
1-2 vs EnglandKnockout stage · xG 0.68-1.04 · match xPts 1.04 · eliminated

Group-stage match receipts

4-1 vs IraqxG 2.52-0.80 · xPts 2.40 · Δ +0.60
3-2 vs SenegalxG 2.20-1.72 · xPts 1.68 · Δ +1.32
1-4 vs FrancexG 1.70-1.50 · xPts 1.51 · Δ -1.51

Featured story

BREAKING:

Brazil eliminated despite 2.61-1.05 xG edge

Norway beat Brazil 2-1; Brazil had the stronger chance profile, but Norway advanced from a lower-xG night.

Schedule context

Norway are +2.40 xGD through 3 xG matches against opponents averaging 20.7/48 in the World Cup field and FIFA #28.0 globally; led xG against a mid-ranked opponent field.

Group	Group I · 2nd in group
Knockout status	Eliminated Out after Match 99 vs England
Published FIFA rank	FIFA #19 · 18th of 48 World Cup teams
xG vs schedule	Avg opponent field rank 20.7 / 48 · Avg opponent FIFA #28.0 · led xG against a mid-ranked opponent field
Group-stage played / record	3 · 2W 0D 1L
Group-stage points	6
Group-stage expected points (xPts)	5.59
Group-stage Δ (Points − xPts)	+0.41
Group-stage goals for / against	8 / 7
Group-stage xG for / against	6.42 / 4.02
Group-stage finishing (Goals − xG)	+1.58
Group-stage defensive luck (xGA − GA)	-2.98

Where Norway sit on the total xG luck quadrant

Where Norway sit across all xG-backed matches so far — finishing luck (goals − xG) across, defensive luck (xGA − goals conceded) up; the crosshair is zero, exactly as the chances suggest. On the balance of play they are clinical but leaky.

See Norway on the full interactive luck quadrant →

Best and worst group-stage xG matches

Best xG performance

Norway 4–1 Iraq

Norway had their strongest chance profile against Iraq, winning the xG battle 2.52–0.80.

Most unlucky result

Norway vs France

Norway took 0 points from 1.51 xPts (Δ -1.51).

Most fortunate result

Norway vs Senegal

Norway took 3 points from 1.68 xPts (Δ +1.32).

Group-stage match by match

Group-stage match-by-match luck — points taken minus expected points (xPts) each game. Green = took more than the chances deserved, red = deserved more.

Date	Match	Score	Group xG	xPts	Δ
16 June	@ Iraq	4–1	2.52–0.80	2.40	+0.60
22 June	v Senegal	3–2	2.20–1.72	1.68	+1.32
26 June	v France	1–4	1.70–1.50	1.51	-1.51

Δ here is per group-stage match: the points Norway took that game minus their expected points (xPts) for it. Negative = robbed, positive = fortunate.

Knockout match by match

Date	Match	Score	Knockout xG	Match xPts	Verdict
30 June	@ Ivory Coast	2–1	1.90–1.49	1.64	Norway advanced from a balanced knockout game 1–2 (1.49–1.90 xG).
5 July	@ Brazil	2–1	1.05–2.61	0.55	Brazil had the stronger chance profile (2.61–1.05 xG) but were knocked out 1–2; Norway advanced against the xG run.
11 July	v England	1–2	0.68–1.04	1.04	England advanced from a balanced knockout game 1–2 (0.68–1.04 xG).

Knockout rows are not added to group points or group-stage xPts. The score decides advancement; match xPts is chance-profile context.

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