How lucky or unlucky were Ecuador in the World Cup 2026 group stage?

Group-stage totals: 4 points from 5.51 xPts (points luck -1.51) and 2 goals conceded from 2.67 xGA (defensive luck +0.67). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Ecuador's group-stage luck built game by game.

Where did Ecuador finish in Group E?

Ecuador finished third in Group E with 4 points from 5.51 group-stage xPts (Δ -1.51).

What are Ecuador's group, knockout and total xG numbers?

Ecuador have 5.12 group-stage xGF and 2.67 group-stage xGA, plus 0.75 knockout xGF and 1.05 knockout xGA. Total: 5.87 xGF, 3.72 xGA.

What was Ecuador's best xG match?

Ecuador's highest-xGF match was 0–0 vs Curacao: 2.84 xG for and 0.50 xG against.

Ecuador at the 2026 World Cup

Eliminated

Ecuador are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 79 against Mexico. Mexico 2–0 Ecuador; Mexico 1.05–0.75 Ecuador xG.

Ecuador have 4 points from 5.51 xPts, a clear group-stage case of results trailing the chances.

Next for Ecuador

Knockout result

Ecuador vs Mexico

Match 79 (Round of 32) result page with score, match xG and advancement context.

Latest xG match

0–2 vs Mexico

Knockout stage · xG 0.75-1.05 · eliminated

Group table

Group E finish

4 points from 5.51 group-stage xPts. Official group rank decides qualification.

Results

All scores with xG

Every finished match, scoreline, match xG and one-line verdict.

Quick answers

EliminatedAre Ecuador eliminated from the World Cup 2026?: Ecuador are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 79 against Mexico. Mexico 2–0 Ecuador; Mexico 1.05–0.75 Ecuador xG.
Deserved betterHow lucky or unlucky were Ecuador in the World Cup 2026 group stage?: Group-stage totals: 4 points from 5.51 xPts (points luck -1.51) and 2 goals conceded from 2.67 xGA (defensive luck +0.67). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Ecuador's group-stage luck built game by game.
Group finishWhere did Ecuador finish in Group E?: Ecuador finished third in Group E with 4 points from 5.51 group-stage xPts (Δ -1.51).
xG by stageWhat are Ecuador's group, knockout and total xG numbers?: Ecuador have 5.12 group-stage xGF and 2.67 group-stage xGA, plus 0.75 knockout xGF and 1.05 knockout xGA. Total: 5.87 xGF, 3.72 xGA.
Best xG matchWhat was Ecuador's best xG match?: Ecuador's highest-xGF match was 0–0 vs Curacao: 2.84 xG for and 0.50 xG against.

xG by stage

Stage	Matches	Goals	xGF / xGA	xGD	xPts	Scope
Group stage	3	2–2	5.12 / 2.67	+2.45	5.51	Official group-table scope
Knockout	1	0–2	0.75 / 1.05	-0.30	1.09	Match xPts is chance context only
Total	4	2–4	5.87 / 3.72	+2.15	6.60	All completed xG-backed matches

Knockout status

EliminatedAre Ecuador eliminated from the World Cup 2026?: Ecuador are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 79 against Mexico. Mexico 2–0 Ecuador; Mexico 1.05–0.75 Ecuador xG. Ecuador vs Mexico xG guide/result.

Knockout receipts

0-2 vs MexicoKnockout stage · xG 0.75-1.05 · match xPts 1.09 · eliminated

Group-stage match receipts

0-1 vs Ivory CoastxG 1.01-1.52 · xPts 1.01 · Δ -1.01
0-0 vs CuracaoxG 2.84-0.50 · xPts 2.66 · Δ -1.66
2-1 vs GermanyxG 1.27-0.65 · xPts 1.84 · Δ +1.16

Featured story

UPDATE:

Mexico finished 10-3 on goals from 6.66-3.87 xG

England ended the clean-sheet run 3-2; Mexico still finished 3.34 above xG and 0.87 below xGA.

Group E story

Ecuador finished third despite 5.51 xPts

Ecuador were second in Group E by xPts, but Ivory Coast took the automatic slot with 6 points from 4.69 xPts.

Schedule context

Ecuador are +2.45 xGD through 3 xG matches against opponents averaging 28.7/48 in the World Cup field and FIFA #41.7 globally; led xG against a mid-ranked opponent field.

Group	Group E · 3rd in group
Knockout status	Eliminated Out after Match 79 vs Mexico
Published FIFA rank	FIFA #25 · 23rd of 48 World Cup teams
xG vs schedule	Avg opponent field rank 28.7 / 48 · Avg opponent FIFA #41.7 · led xG against a mid-ranked opponent field
Group-stage played / record	3 · 1W 1D 1L
Group-stage points	4
Group-stage expected points (xPts)	5.51
Group-stage Δ (Points − xPts)	-1.51
Group-stage goals for / against	2 / 2
Group-stage xG for / against	5.12 / 2.67
Group-stage finishing (Goals − xG)	-3.12
Group-stage defensive luck (xGA − GA)	+0.67

Where Ecuador sit on the total xG luck quadrant

Where Ecuador sit across all xG-backed matches so far — finishing luck (goals − xG) across, defensive luck (xGA − goals conceded) up; the crosshair is zero, exactly as the chances suggest. On the balance of play they are deserved better.

See Ecuador on the full interactive luck quadrant →

Best and worst group-stage xG matches

Best xG performance

Ecuador 0–0 Curacao

Ecuador had their strongest chance profile against Curacao, winning the xG battle 2.84–0.50.

Most unlucky result

Ecuador vs Curacao

Ecuador took 1 point from 2.66 xPts (Δ -1.66).

Most fortunate result

Ecuador vs Germany

Ecuador took 3 points from 1.84 xPts (Δ +1.16).

Group-stage match by match

Group-stage match-by-match luck — points taken minus expected points (xPts) each game. Green = took more than the chances deserved, red = deserved more.

Date	Match	Score	Group xG	xPts	Δ
14 June	@ Ivory Coast	0–1	1.01–1.52	1.01	-1.01
20 June	v Curacao	0–0	2.84–0.50	2.66	-1.66
25 June	v Germany	2–1	1.27–0.65	1.84	+1.16

Δ here is per group-stage match: the points Ecuador took that game minus their expected points (xPts) for it. Negative = robbed, positive = fortunate.

Knockout match by match

Date	Match	Score	Knockout xG	Match xPts	Verdict
30 June	@ Mexico	0–2	0.75–1.05	1.09	Mexico advanced from a balanced knockout game 2–0 (1.05–0.75 xG).

Knockout rows are not added to group points or group-stage xPts. The score decides advancement; match xPts is chance-profile context.

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